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Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Food: Overview

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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE. Role of ... Source: Clive James, 2009. Pipeline for traits: Either currently available or in development ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Food: Overview


1
Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future
Global Supply, Demandand Prices of Food Overview
  • Mark W. Rosegrant and Anthony Cavalieri
  • Environment and Production Technology Division

Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African
Farmers Linking Economic Research to Decision
Making Organized by IFPRI, UNCST,
Scifode Entebbe, Uganda May 19-21, 2009
2
Outline
  • A World of Growing Food Scarcity
  • Biotechnology for Poor Farmers
  • Constraints to the Use of Agricultural
    Biotechnology
  • Conclusions and Policy Options

3
A World of Growing Food Scarcity
4
Hunger and Malnutrition Developing World
Page 6
5
Global Price of MaizeBaseline and Without
Climate Change, 2000-2050
Source IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES
B2 scenario (with IMAGE temperature and CO2
fertilization effects, April, 2008)
6
Contributing Factors to Future Scarcity
  • Rapid income growth
  • Underinvestment in agricultural productivity and
    technology
  • Water and land scarcity, biofuels
  • Climate change
  • High energy priceshigh input and transport costs
  • Population growth and urbanization

7
Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-2050
Source IFPRI IMPACT projections, September 2007
8
Sources of Cereal Production Growth, projected,
2000-2050
Source IFPRI IMPACT projections, September 2007
9
Biotechnology for Poor Farmers?
10
What do Farmers in Developing Countries Need?
  • Improved yields
  • Nutritional enhancement
  • Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance leading to
    stable yields and production

Page 10
11
Opportunities with Non-biotech Technology
  • Existing technologies
  • Efficient irrigation
  • Fertilizer use
  • Modern, high yielding varieties
  • Hybrids
  • Preferred to biotech when
  • Solve important problems
  • Attract investment
  • Cost efficient

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ace_drip03jun.jpg
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take-placing.jpg
12
Opportunities with Biotechnology
  • Can we define the place of biotechnology in
    contributing to productivity and food security?
  • Tools to support traditional breeding (molecular
    markers, tissue culture diagnostics etc)
  • Transgenics where variation doesnt exist in the
    crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity tolerance,
    insect and disease resistance) and the cost of
    development is justified by the resulting
    cultivars

13
Can Biotechnology Address Developing Country
Needs?
  • Experience in developed world
  • Experience in developing world
  • Research investment
  • Scientific capacity in developing countries
  • Progress in plant science
  • IFPRI modeling results

Page 13
14
Experience in developed world
  • Broad experience with transgenics in US and
    Canada
  • Four crops
  • Maize
  • Soybeans
  • Cotton
  • Canola
  • Two traits
  • Bt Bacillus thuringiensis
  • RR Roundup Ready

Page 14
15
Experience with GM in developing world
Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to
2008 Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)
Source Clive James, 2009
16
Pipeline for traits Either currently available
or in development
  • Soybean and Maize
  • Yield
  • Nutrient-use efficiency
  • Abiotic stress tolerance
  • Disease and insect resistance
  • Oil Palm, Cassava, and Sugarcane
  • Abiotic stress tolerance
  • Disease and insect resistance

17
Experience with GM in developing world
  • Bt Insect Resistance
  • Brinjal (eggplant)
  • Cowpea
  • Rice
  • Cotton
  • Maize
  • Other traits
  • Vitamin A sorghum
  • Golden Rice
  • Fungal resistant banana

Page 17
18
Experience with GM in developing world
Source Min. of Agriculture GOI
Page 18
19
Experience with GM in developing world
Summary of public evaluation of Bt cotton in
India (7 studies)
Source James 2007
Page 19
20
RD investment in biotechnology
Source Maize Company and public organization
websites. Wheat Hans Braun CIMMYT, Pers. Comm.
  • Large sums of money are available for crop
    improvement when there is a return on the
    investment
  • Significant activity on biotechnology in the
    public sector that will result in products in the
    coming years

Page 20
21
RD investment in biotechnology
  • Willingness of private companies to make IP and
    technology available

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8/GoldenRice-WhiteRice.jpg/280px-GoldenRice-WhiteR
ice.jpg
  • Syngenta Golden Rice
  • Monsanto Drought resistant maize for Africa
  • DuPont Nutritional enhancement of sorghum for
    Africa

http//www.africanews.com/documents/18/2c/182c7b1a
72a23fe19371d6038b8be22f.article.jpg
http//www.africancrops.net/rockefeller/crops/sorg
hum/pics/rattunda-sorghum2.jpg
Page 21
22
RD investment in biotechnology
  • Growing public efforts
  • Bt cowpea (USAID)
  • Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)
  • Bt cotton (Government of India)
  • Golden Rice

Page 22
23
Current progress in plant science
  • Scientific progress reasons for optimism
  • Underlying common molecular biology and
    biochemistry for all crops
  • High through-put technologies for molecular
    breeding, gene discovery, and manipulation
  • Uses of genomic sequence information
  • Molecular markers
  • Gene discovery
  • High level of spending for medical applications
  • Complete genome sequences for several crops

Page 23
24
Current progress in plant science
Source Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 1487-13
Page 24
25
Current progress in plant science
Source Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 149 7-13
Page 25
26
Projected Effect of GM on food prices
GM lowers price of crops

Source IFPRI IMPACT Model
Slide 38
27
Constraints to the Use of Agricultural
Biotechnology
28
What are the Constraints?
  • Limited profit opportunities in developing
    countries
  • Too long term, expensive, and controversial for
    public sector
  • Public-sector research tends to be project based
    and subject to fashions in funding
  • Complex product development

Page 28
29
What are the Constraints?
  • Limited infrastructure and established seed
    systems in developing countries
  • Timely production of adequate foundation seed
  • Hybrid seed production
  • Appropriate promotion of new varieties
  • Seed costs
  • Market distortions caused by government seed
    companies
  • Delivery issues for non-transgenic modern
    high-yielding varieties

Page 29
30
What are the Constraints?
  • Regulatory
  • Lack of systems and capacity in many developing
    countries
  • High cost
  • Long term nature of environmental risks
  • Product stewardship
  • Challenges for public sector

Page 30
31
What are the Constraints?
  • Organized, highly effective opponents of
    technology motivated by concerns about
  • Risks
  • Technology
  • Multinationals
  • Trade
  • Etc.

Page 31
32
Conclusions and Policy Options
33
Conclusions
  • Biotechnology can contribute to food production
    and security in developing countries.
  • Traits in the development pipeline will have
    greater value for poor farmers.
  • Rapid advancement of the science of biotechnology
    applied to crop plants is refining the necessary
    tools.

Page 33
34
Conclusions
  • Acceptance and demand by farmers has driven large
    scale adoption of transgenic crops
  • This includes adoption in large-scale crops in
    major markets.
  • It also includes illegal adoption preceding
    regulatory approval.
  • Development of crops with traits of value to
    consumers or food companies would further advance
    acceptance and adoption.

Page 34
35
Conclusions
  • Public sector development of transgenic crops
  • Long term nature of product development
  • Dependence on short term, project based funding
  • Limited seed systems for delivery of products

Page 35
36
Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of
Biotechnology for the Poor
  • Provide advanced molecular marker tools and IT
    support for breeding programs in crops of
    importance to poor farmers
  • Large-scale crop improvement efforts
  • Initiated by the private sector with policy and
    financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and
    USAID funding
  • Explore policies that allow access to patented
    basic tools of genetic engineering
    (transformation, gene expression etc) to
    developing country scientists

37
Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of
Biotechnology for the Poor
  • Enable developing-country access to patented
    genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use
    efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing,
    and market segmentation
  • Combined with efforts to address stewardship,
    liability, and control issues for the two points
    above
  • Make genome sequencing capacity in developed
    countries available to developing world
    scientists to sequence most important developing
    world crops (cassava, teff)

38
Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of
Biotechnology for the Poor
  • Develop stronger collaborations for collecting
    and preserving land races and wild relatives of
    crops species
  • Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start
  • Policies would need to address the concerns
    countries about protection of the genetic
    materials
  • Training of developing country scientists in US
    or EU labs
  • Upon return to their home countries scientists
    are on their own with little funding, follow-up
    or incentives for doing research  
  • Programs from donors in the developed world
    should address these issues

39
Potential Initiatives for Developing Countries
  • Focus on supporting the development of the
    private sector in those crops where there are
    potential markets
  • Infrastructure
  • Reasonable regulatory regimes
  • Transparency
  • IP protection
  • Capital for start ups
  • Reduced hurdles to forming businesses
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