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Title: http:mahasri.cr.chibau.ac.jp


1
Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) 2007-2011
http//mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/
Report to CLIVAR SSG-15 Geneva, Sept. 11-14 2007
2
Programmatic Development
  • AMY08 stems from grass-root scientific and
    societal imperatives Initiated in August 2006,
    Xining meeting
  • Strongly supported by GEWEX and CLIVAR
  • GEWEX/MAHASRI workshop, Jan. 8 2007, Tokyo
  • GEWEX SSG, Jan. 22/25 2007, Honolulu
  • CLIVAR/AAMP, Feb 19/21 2007, Honolulu
  • Endorsed by WCRP/JSC on 28th JSC meeting, Mar.
    26-30 2007 Zanzibar, Tanzania
  • Identified as a cross-cutting weather and climate
    activity by WMO/WWRP.
  • 1st AMY meeting, Apr. 23-25 2007, Beijing
  • Established SSC, working group, IPO
  • 2nd AMY meeting, Sept 3-4 2007, Bali, Indonesia
  • Science plan and implementation plan

3
WCRP-JSC in Zanzibar March 2007
  • Endorsed the concept of the AMY and the
    International Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major
    initiative to promote broad-based climate
    research for the monsoon systems of the world.
  • The AMY initiative was visualized as
  • a coordinated national and international
    observation and modeling activity to better
    understand the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction
    and aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction
    of the Asian monsoon system, for improving
    monsoon prediction.

4
Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008(Draft
Ver. 5 August 30, 2007)Outline
  • 1. Introduction
  • 1.1 Programmatic development
  • 1.2 Participants
  • 2. Science background
  • 2.1 Diurnal cycle
  • 2.2 Intraseasonal variability
  • 2.3 Annual cycle
  • 2.4 Interannual variability
  • 2.5 Interdecadal variability and future change
  • 2.6 Extreme and high impact weather
  • 3. Science foci
  • 3.1 Cross-cutting themes
  • 3.2 Overarching science questions

5
  • 4. Goals and objectives
  • 4.1 The overarching goals
  • 4.2 Objectives
  • 5. Strategy
  • 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach
  • 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building
  • 5.3 Organization
  • 5.4 Collaboration and linkages
  • 6. Planned activities
  • 6.1 Field experiments Ocean, Land, Special
    processes
  • 6.2 Data management Archiving and assimilation
  • 6.3 Modeling coordination Global coupled
    models, Regional models
  • 7. Expectations (contributions to AMY, resources,
    timelines)

6
AMY ParticipantsNational/Regional Projects
  • JAPAN JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, ARCS-Asia,
    JAMSTEC/FRCGC, PRAISE
  • CHINA AIPO, SCHeRex, TORP, SACOL, NPOIMS
  • Chinese Taipei SoWMEX, EAMEX
  • INDIA STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX
  • USA- JAMEX, SMART-COMMIT, TiMREX
  • Korea-Japan PHONE08
  • Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia
    Philippines Bangaladesh, Nepal Mongolia

7
Classification of Projects
Plus other National International contributions
8
AMY Participants International Projects/Panels
  • GEWEX- MAHASRI,
  • GEWEX-CEOP
  • CLIVAR- AMMP,
  • CLIVAR-IOP,
  • CLIVAR-PP
  • ESSP-MAIRS
  • WWRP/TMRP- TCS08
  • THOPEX- TPARC

9
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10
Cross-cutting Science Themes
  • Multi-scale interaction (Diurnal to
    intraseasoanl)
  • Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere-Biosphere
    interaction
  • Aerosol-Cloud-Monsoon interaction

11
Overarching Science Questions
  • What determines the structure and dynamics of the
    diurnal and annual cycles of the coupled
    atmosphere-ocean-land system?
  • What are fundamental causes for and how
    predictable is the Asian monsoon Intraseasonal
    Variability (ISV)?
  • How predictable is the monsoon interannual
    variability (IAV)? What roles do atmosphere-land
    interaction and Tibetan Plateau play in the
    monsoon seasonal prediction?
  • Do aerosols weaken or strengthen Asian monsoon?
  • How will the Asian monsoon system change in a
    global warming environment and under human
    transformation of land, water and air?

12
Goals
  • To improve Asian monsoon predictions on
    intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for
    societal benefits, by advancing our understanding
    of the physical processes determining the Asian
    monsoon variability and predictability, and
  • to promote applications in order to support
    strategies for sustainable development.
  • Success in meeting this overarching goal is a
    significant contribution to the new WCRP
    strategic framework.

13
Objectives
  • Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmosphere
    -biosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction,
    and aerosol-monsoon interaction in the Asian
    Monsoon system.
  • Determine predictability of the Asian monsoon on
    intraseasonal to interannual time scales, the
    role of land in continental rainfall prediction.
  • Improve physical representation in coupled
    climate models and develop data assimilation of
    the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon
    regions.
  • Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system
    (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast
    Asia.
  • Better understand how human activities in the
    monsoon Asia region interact with environment.

14
AMY Organization
  • Scientific Steering Committee (Responsible for
    science and implementation plan)
  • Chairs Bin Wang, Jun Matsumoto
  • Members Guoxiong Wu, Tetsuzo Yasunari, William
    Lau, Toshio Koike, D.R. Sikka,
  • S. Gadgil, Tandong Yao, Congbin Fu, Renhe Zhang,
    C.-P. Chang, Jagadish Shukla,
  • Yihui Ding
  • AMY Program Office Jianping Li

15
AMY Organization Working Groups
  • Observation Coordination Working Group
  • Chairs Dongxiao Wang, Manabu D. Yamanaka
  • Members Zhanqing Li, Yaoming Ma, Yunqi Ni,
    Jong-Dao Jou, Popuri Sanjeeva Rao, R.C. Bhatia,
    Xiangde Xu, Si-Chee Tsay, Jianping Huang, Hongbin
    Chen, A. Higuchi, T. Nakajima, N. Christina Hsu,
    Brent Holben, Somchai Baimoung, Thi Tan Thanh
    Nguyen, Kok-Seng Yap, Fadli Syamsudin,
    Dolgorsuren Azzaya, Samarendra Karmakar, Madan L.
    Shrestha
  • Central Data Management Working Group
  • Chairs Kooiti Masuda, Guangqing Zhou
  • Members Si-Chee Tsay, Kumar D. Preveen, Chi-yung
    Francis Tam, Mei Gao, M. Rajeevan
  • Modeling and Prediction Working Group
  • Chairs Harry Hendon, Takehiko Satomura
  • Members B. N. Goswami, Kun Yang, Xueshun Shen,
    Johnny Chan, Yongqiang Yu, Dehui Chen, Ailikun,
    In-Sik Kang, Jinhai He, Edvin Aldrian, Weijing
    Li, U.C. Mohanty

16
  • PROPOSED WAY FORWARD
  • Finalize Science Plan REVIEW THE SCIENCE PLAN
    AND
  • AGREE ON A FEW PRIOIRTY SCIENCE QUESTIONS
  • 2. Developing implementation plan ASAP FOR THE
  • OBSERVATIONAL, ANALYSIS, AND MODELING
    ACTIVITIES
  • FOR ADDRESSING EACH OF THESE SCIENCE QUESTIONS.
  • 3. A PLAN TO SHOW HOW THE RESEARCH
  • WILL BE USED IN IMPROVING PREDICTIONS

17
IMS (2007-2011)
18
Decision at The 28th Session of The Joint
Scientific Committee (JSC), WCRP at Zanzibar,
Tanzania, 26-30, March 2007)
  • Endorse the WCRP crosscutting Monsoon Initiative.
    The JSC commented that the monsoon crosscut
    should include all the monsoon groups with a
    broader perspective, led by CLIVAR and GEWEX with
    participation of SPARC, CliC and WGNE and several
    activities outside WCRP (particularly THORPEX).
  • Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to agree on how it will
    be supervised and the development of an
    implementation plan.
  • The proposals for and concepts of an Asian
    Monsoon Year and an International Year of
    Tropical Convection should be considered as
    components of an International Monsoon Study
    (IMS) 2007-2011, a 5year strategy of WCRP monsoon
    research, which would include issues related to
    the East African Monsoon, capacity building and
    application of observations and predictions in
    monsoon regions for societal benefit.

19
DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR
  • JSC DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR
  • NEED TO DEVELOP A GLOBAL CROSS-CUTTING MONSOON
    PROGRAM
  • FOR THE 2007- 2011 PERIOD.
  • SHORT TERM TEAM (IMS STUDY
  • PLAN (JSC REPS, PROJECT LEADS J MATSUMOTO,
    BING WANG,
  • OTHER MONSOON REGIONS/PANELS)
  • STRONG LINKS SHOULD BE MADE WITH YOTC AND
    THORPEX.
  • WCRP MONSOON CROSSCUT SHOULD BE DEEPLY ROOTED IN
    CLIVAR
  • AND GEWEX PROJECTS.
  • JSC ESTABLISHED A TEAM TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
  • OVERSIGHT OF THE MONSOON CROSSCUT
  • CLIVAR AND GEWEX WILL RATIONALIZE THE NUMBER OF
    MONSOON
  • COMMITTEES

20
SUBSEQUENTLY CLIVAR AND GEWEX IPOs INITIALLY
PROPOSED A SMALL MEETING1 TO DEVELOP A CONCEPT
PAPER THAT WOULD - PROVIDE A GLOBAL STRUCTURE
THAT INTEGRATES REGIONAL EXPERIMENTS AND
PROMOTES COHERENCE AMONG THEM. CONCEPT PAPER
SHOULD INCLUDE - CLEAR SET OF AIMS AND
OBJECTIVES - SET OF PRIORITY SCIENCE
QUESTIONS - SOME GUIDELINES FOR
IMPLEMENTATION - CONTRIBUTION TO
APPLICATIONS AND CAPACITY BUILDING. JSC HAD
APPROVED THE IDEA OF A SECOND PAN-WCRP
MONSOON MEETING WHICH WAS TO BE LED BY PROF. T.
YASUNARI. THIS MEETING IS A RESPONSE TO THIS
RECOMMENDATION. THIS MEETING COULD SERVE AS A
SUBSTITUTE FOR THE NON-EVENT BY INITIATING A
PROCESS TO DEVELOP THE IMS PLAN NEEDED FOR THE
GEWEX AND CLIVAR SSG AND THE NEXT JSC MEETING
AND DEFINING THE NEXT PAN-WCRP MONSOON SCIENCE
WORKSHOP. 1- MEETING NOT HELD DUE TO A LACK OF
RESOURCES FOR TRAVEL (AND TIME)
21
Gaps First Pan-WCRP workshop (2005)
  • Global Phenomena
  • diurnal cycle
  • annual cycle,
  • intraseasonal oscillation,
  • atmospheric moisture distribution and transport
  • aerosol-monsoon-cloud interaction
  • Model processes surface fluxes, planetary
    boundary layer and cloud.
  • Land surface need better observations of land
    surface conditions roles of atmosphere-land
    coupling in developing monsoon precipitation
  • Ocean improve (and sustain) observations
    importance of air-sea interaction and ocean
    processes in modelling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon
    relationship
  • Regional foci processes over the Maritime
    Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western
    boundary currents, and Indonesian through flow.

22
ISSUES
1) WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE QUESTIONS
THAT CUT ACROSS ALL REGIONAL MONSOONS? 2) WHAT
BALANCE BETWEEN MODELING, OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED TO ADDRESS THESE
QUESTIONS? 3) HOW WILL IMS PROVIDE A BRIDGE
BETWEEN - REGIONAL SCALE AND GLOBAL SCALE
PROCESSES? - SEASONAL (AND BELOW) TO DECADAL
AND CLIMATE CHANGE? - NATURAL PROCESS VS
ANTHROPOGENIC PROCESS? - LAND AND OCEAN
SPECIALISTS? - OBSERVATIONS AND PREDICTION
CAPABILITIES? (E.G., BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION)? - INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS AND
MODELING APPROACHES TO PROCESS
UNDERSTANDING? - RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS?
23
CLIVAR - global view
Indian Ocean
24
A global perspective is imparative for
understanding fundamental monsoon dynamics
Why Global Monsoon?
  • The physical principle of conservation of mass,
    moisture, and energy applies to the global
    atmosphere and its exchange of energy with the
    underlying surfaces (Trenberth et al., 2000).
  • All seven regional monsoons are driven by the
    annual cycle of the solar radiative heating and
    coordinated and connected by the global divergent
    circulation necessitated by mass conservation.

25
Regional monsoon systems interact with each other
and with global oceans
  • A strong South Asian summer monsoon tends to be
    followed by a strong Australian and weak eastern
    African monsoon (Meehl 1997).
  • Indian monsoon-East Asian monsoon (Kripalani
    1997)
  • South American monsoon and the African monsoon
    are possibly related (Biasutti et al. 2003).
  • Teleconnection exists between East Asian-western
    North Pacific summer monsoon and North American
    summer rainfall (Wang et al. 2001 Lau and Weng
    2002).
  • Continental monsoons are interactive with
    surrounding oceans. Sahel drying is a response to
    warming of the South Atlantic relative to North
    Atlantic SST Southern African drying is a
    response to Indian Ocean warming (Hoerling et al.
    2006).
  • ENSO affects A-AM, Americal monsoons and
    midlatitudes.

26
Global Monsoon Science Issues
  • How is the strength of the global monsoon
    precipitation best measured? What are the major
    characteristics describing the spatial
    distribution of observed Variability in global
    monsoon precipitation?
  • How well do the coupled climate models simulate
    the observed climatology, variations and long
    term trends of the global monsoon precipitation?
  • What causes regional differences in the presnt
    day climate, in the past, and in a global warming
    environment?
  • How do the changes in global monsoon relate to
    external forcing, anthropogenic forcing?
  • Have significant changes of global land monsoon
    rainfall been detected that are likely to be
    deducible from the atmospheres response to the
    observed SST variations?

27
The END
Thank you! Terima kasih!
.
28
Global Monsoon Precipitation Domain
Definition based on summer-winter contrast
(Annual range greater than 150 mm (JJA minus DJF
in NH) and concentration of rain in summer (Local
summer (JJA in NH) exceeds 35 of the annual
rainfall)
Wang and Ding 2006 GRL
29
Global monsoon rain domain
Overall weakening of the global monsoon
precipitation
B.Wang Ding, 2006, GRL
30
Remarks
  • The global monsoon consists of a soltistial mode
    and an equinoctial asymmetric mode.
  • The climatology of the tropical precipitation and
    low-level circulation can be well depicted by a
    Four-parameter metrics the annual mean, a
    solstitial mode (JJAS minus DJFM, 71), an
    equinoctial asymmetric mode (AM-ON,13), and
    global monsoon doamin.
  • The global monsoon precipitation domain can be
    delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation
    index (MPI) annual range exceeding 300 mm and
    the MPI exceeding 50.
  • Strong monsoon strong annual reversal in lower
    tropospheric winds and a wet summer-dry winter
    contrast. Weak monsoon a wet summer-dry
    winter contrast but weak annual reversal of
    winds.

31
2.1 Diurnal cycles
  • What is the fundamental relationship between
    diurnal cycle and surface orography and land/sea
    configurations?
  • Is there any specific distance that land derived
    diurnal signal propagates over the surrounding
    ocean?
  • How much diurnal variations over the open ocean
    affect the diurnal cloud/rainfall variations?
  • How are diurnal cycles are modulated by MISO and
    seasonal cycle?
  • How important is the modulation of the diurnal
    cycle in interannual monsoon variations?
  • How can we improve the model physics and correct
    the model diurnal errors? Will the models getting
    diurnal cycle right improve the modeling of
    low-frequency variability (intraseasonal to
    interannual)?

32
GPS SG
Example in Sumatera Island (Wu et al., submitted)
Observation (TRMM) much rainfall over the Indian
Ocean in the vicinity of Sumatera ?
however Simulation (high-resolution GCM) much
rainfall over Sumatera island Climatology of
rainfall around Sumatera strongly depends on
moisture transport processes induced by maritime
continent.
TRMM (2A25) 6-year average rainfall (1998- 2003)
Rainfall system around Sumatera could be
simulated by cloud-resolving numerical model.
MRI-GCM TL959 (20km mesh) 10-year
average rainfall
2004 April mean rainfall (mm/hour) simulated by
MM5
mm/year
33
2.2 ISV
  • How do we evaluate model simulations and measure
    ISO predictability and prediction skill?
  • What are the current level of performances and
    common problems in the models? How to correct
    these systematic errors?
  • How do the errors in simulating ISO impact
    simulation of the interannual variability?
  • To what extent is the MISO predictable?
  • What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction
    play in sustaining MISO?
  • What is the role of mesoscale systems in
    determining the heating profile
    (convective/stratiform) and how does this impact
    the evolution of ISO? How to get them right in
    the models?

34
2.2 ISV (continued)
  • Do models simulate correctly the heating
    partitioning between the small-scale, high
    frequency and large-scale, low frequency
    disturbances?
  • What is the role of radiative heating in tropical
    heating profile? How do model properly moistening
    the lower-troposphere?
  • What is the influence of MJO on tropical cyclone
    and extratropical predictability?
  • How do low-frequency components of climate
    modulate MISO and its statistical

35
Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005)
Numbers four phases, phase interval 8 days
Wang et al. 2006
  • Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal (Yasunari
    1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and
    northwestward propagation in WNP (Nitta 1987)
  • Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band
    (Maloney and Hartmann 1998, Annamalai and Slingo
    2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and
    Webster 2002, Waliser et al. 2003)
  • Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E) (Wang,
    Webster and Teng 05)
  • Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and
    WNP.

36
2.3 Annual cycle
  • Archive dataset that can describe the
    comprehensive features of seasonal cycles of the
    Asian and Australian monsoon.
  • Identify the principal physical processes which
    determine the onset and retreat of regional
    monsoon system, in particular, occurring abrupt
    manners.
  • Design metrics for objective, quantitative
    assessing model performance, predictability and
    prediction skill.
  • Provide one-stop data source for cross-project
    use.
  • Identify key modeling issues and develop
    effective strategy for improving models.

37
2.3 Annual cycle (continued)
  • Encourage use of large-domain cloud resolving
    model or cloud system resolving model simulation
    to provide surrogate data for studying convective
    organization, and multi-scale interaction in
    MISO.
  • Improve initialization scheme, initial
    conditions, and representation of slow coupled
    physics in the coupled climate models.
  • Develop new strategy and methodology for
    sub-seasonal monsoon prediction.
  • Better understand physical basis for seasonal
    prediction and the ways to quantify the
    uncertainties associated the prediction.

38
Modeling Coordination
  • Three potential areas of integrated modeling
  • RCM activity
  • Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system
  • GCM/CGCM
  • Coordinated AGCM/CGCM intraseasonal prediction
    experiments
  • CGCM-RCM Experiments
  • Impact of land surface initialization on ASM
    seasonal prediction.
  • Coordination toward fulfilling AMY objectives
  • Small task force group, leaders, Experimental
    design, participanting groups, Experiments, data
    collection, diagnostics, publication.

39
Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and
Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2
Scenario
The general conclusion that emerges of the
diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations Asian
summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced.
From Kumar et al.
40
Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In
Monsoon ISO
Slingo 2006 THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report
41
AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP
heat source region
Kang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
42
Two-tier 5-AGCM MME hindcast of JJA rainfall (21
yrs)
Pattern Correlation Coefficient
5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr)
  • Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM
    rainfall.
  • TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall
    correlations in SM region that are at odds with
    observation (negative).
  • Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST
    results in the failure.

OBS SST-rainfall correlation
Model SST-rainfall correlation
(Wang et al. 2005)
Wang et al. 2005
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