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David Hone

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?????????. David Hone. ????????. ????????. 2. ????. ???? CO2 ?????????? 550ppm ????????????? ??????????,?????????,???????????????????????????????????????? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: David Hone


1
David Hone????????????????
?????????
2
????
???? CO2 ?????????? 550ppm ????????????? ?????????
?,?????????,??????????????????????????????????????
?? ????????????????????????????????????????
3
??????????
  • ???? ???????????????

4
?????? CO2 ????
30
CO2 ??? GtC/?
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
5
????
  • ????? (Kaya Identity) ????????????????????,???????
    CO2 ???,?
  • CO2 ??? ?? GDP
    ?? CO2
  • ?? GDP
    ??
  • ??????????,?
  • ?? ??
  • ???? ?? GDP
  • ?????? ??? GDP ???(????)
  • ????? ???????? CO2(??????)

X
X
x x x
6
???????????????
2002 ?? 2050? ??????????
400
2002
350
2050
Linear (2050)
300
Linear (2002)
250
200
??????,GJ
150
100
100
50
2050
90
0
2025
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
?? GDP,US 1995 (ppp)
80
2002
1990
CO
?????????
2
??????,GJ
t / TJ
70
60
1971
50
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
?? GDP,US (1995 ppp)
7
. . . . . .?????????
8
??????????????
???????????
70
1990
???????,???
60
2002
50
40
???????,t CO2 /????
????, ?????????

30
20
2050 ?????
???
10
2
CO
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
??GDP??, ????????
9
????????????????
. . .???? 700 ? 1????????????
. . . ???? 1400 ? 1????????????????
. . . ???? 6 ???????????
. . . ??? 15 ???????????
10
?????????
????
???????
300 EJ
2000 ?
?? 25EJ???
50 ?? 5MW ??????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ? 1?? ?????????????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ?1?? ????
1000 ?1?? ???
1000 ?1?? ??/??/????
50EJ ?????
100 EJ ?????? (???)
5 ?? (CO2 ???)???
5?? (CO2 ???)????
1000 ?1?? ?????????
11
??CO2 ???????????
12
????????
?????
??????????
??
?????
????
??????
?????
????
????
???
?????
???????
13
??? 2025 ???????
? 2025 ?,???????????????????????????????,???????
  • ??????????????????????????????? 100?????????????
  • ??????????-?????????????????????????
  • ??????????????????????????????(???????????),?????
    ???????????
  • ?????????????????????????????? 6??
  • ?????????????????????,?????????????
  • ??????????,???????????????????? 2????????

14
????????????? (?? 550ppm???????????)
????
?????
34 EJ
2002 ?
?? 5EJ ???
10 ?? 5???????
200 ?1?? ????
200 ?1??????????????
200 ?1?? ?????
200?1?? ?????
200?1?? ???
200?1?? ??/??/?????
10 EJ ????????
20 EJ ??????? (???)
1?? (CO2 ???)???
1?? (CO2 ???)?????
200?1?? ?????????
15
???????? CO2 ???????
2000? 2005? 2010? 2015?
2020? 2025?
?????? ???????
??????????? ????????????
16
???? 550ppm??????
  • ??????????????????????????
  • ???????(2010 ?2025 ?)
  • ??????????????,???????????????????,???????????????
    ????????
  • ??CO2 ?????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????? 15?
  • ?????????
  • ??????(2030 ?2050 ?)
  • ???????????? -?????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ??????????????- ????????????????????
  • ?????CO2 ????????, ????????????? ?

????????????????????????????????,???????????550ppm
???????, . . . . . . ??????????????, . . . . .
.????!
17
?????????????
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