18th FORUM Energy Day in Croatia

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18th FORUM - Energy Day in Croatia
HOW TO ADDRESS THE CHALLANGES OF THE CLIMATE
PRESERVATION Goran Granic, Ph.D. Helena Boic,
Ph.D. Damir Peut, M.Sc. Energy Institute
Hrvoje Poar Zagreb, 2 November 2009
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INTRODUCTION

• So far the energy system planning was based on
  the cost function models and energy-technnological
  -siting limitations
• Dramatic reduction of CO2 and other greenhouse
  gases emissions, financial support to renewable
  energy and cogeneration producers, development of
  new technologies and energy management concepts
  require the use of optimisation models and
  observations of longer periods of time (up to
  2050)

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TERMS OF SIMULATION

• This paper analyses the possibilities for
  applying the energy efficiency measures and using
  renewable energy sources for heating, hot water
  preparation, cooling, non-heat electricity and
  electricity generation in the households by use
  of the MARKAL model
• The MARKAL model is the optimisation model for
  energy system long term planning
• The energy system of the Republic of Croatia was
  observed (including all consumption sectors)
  within the planning period upt to 2050
• The useful energy needs in all consumption
  sectors were forecast by use of the MAED model

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TERMS OF SIMULATION

• The scenarios used in the analysis
• Reference Scenario (RS) includes all energy
  efficiency measures which would be applied in the
  energy system on the basis of least-cost
  principle with a condition that there are no CO2
  emission targets
• Hurdle Rate Scenario (HS)
• CO2emission Targets Scenario (ES)
• Support Analysis Scenario (SS)
• The household sector is divided by consumption
  categories
• Single houses with central heating
• Single houses with room heating
• Apartments in buildings with central heating
• Apartments in buildings with room heating

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TERMS OF SIMULATION

• Beside households the Model covers other energy
  consumption sectors
• Servies consumption of useful energy for
  heating, hot water preparation, cooling, and
  non-heat electricity use
• Industry consumption of useful energy for direct
  and indirect heat, non-heat electricity use in
  industry
• Transport energy consumption in passenger (city
  and inter-city) transport and freight transport
  (air transport, maritime transport)
• Agriculture and construction activity
  electricity consumption, energy for thermal
  needs, consumption of motor fuels
• For new technologies the Technology Learning
  option was used

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES IN HOUSEHOLDS

• Insulation (envelops, cieling, windows) and low
  energy houses
• Gas condensing boilers
• Heat pumps
• Micro cogeneration
• Efficient lighting
• Thermostatic valves, room thermostates,
  individual heat meters
• Solar collectors and photovoltaic systems
• District heating (small cogenerations) using
  pellets
• Low energy technologies for non-heat use
  (frigirators, chillers, laundry washers and
  dryers, etc.)
• Electricity losses reduction due to Stand-by
  Power option

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ELECTRICITY GENERATIONCandidate Power Plants

• Hydro power plants
• Thermal power plants - coal-fired (conventional,
  integrated coal gasification combined cycle, and
  with CO2 capture and sequestration)
• Thermal power plants - natural gas-fired
  (conventional and with CO2 capture and
  sequestration)
• Nuclear power plant
• Wind power plants
• Geothermal power plants
• Biomass-fired power plants
• Solar power plants
• Public and industrial CHP plants

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ANALYSIS RESULTS Reference Scenario (RS)
The Reference Scenario comprises all those energy
efficiency measures which would be applied in the
energy system on the basis of least-cost
principle with a condition that there are no CO2
emission targets

• The resulst of the (optimisation) Model shows the
  cost efficiency of introducing the energy
  efficiency measures in households
• Insulation carries the highest energy saving
  potential in households (envelopes, celeing and
  windows insulation)
• The biggest energy savings in heating and hot
  water preparation can be achieved in single
  houses with central heating (households with
  highest income and high energy consumption)

Reference scenario (RS)
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ANALYSIS RESULTS Hurdle Rate Scenario (HS)

• Hurdle rate is used for modelling non-economic
  parameters, like consumer behaviour (specific
  consumers preferences in product choice, e.g.
  design), existence of different market barriers
  which obstruct smooth entry of new technologies
  (lack of funds, lack of legal regulations or
  marketing activities) or yield levels (how many
  years it takes for return on investment) as a
  motive for buyers to decide on an investment.
  Higher hurdle rates were used for the following
  technologies
• Insulations, heat pumps, heat meters and solar
  collectors 15
• Micro cogenerations and photovoltaic systems 25

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ANALYSIS RESULTS Hurdle Rate Scenario (HS)

• Total insulation needs in this Scenario are lower
  than in the Reference Scenario
• Unlike RS, in Hurdle Rate Scenario the highest
  needs for insulation have the houses with central
  heating and apartments with room heating
• An example of comparison results (ratio of final
  consumption of a specific measure to total final
  consumption for heating) between RS and HS for
  houses with central heating

Hurdle Rate Scenario (HS)
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ANALYSIS RESULTSComparison results for RS and HS
scenarios
Hurdle Rate Scenario (HS)
Reference Scenario (RS)
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ANALYSIS RESULTSScenario with CO2 emission
targets (ES)

• Scenario with CO2 emission targets (ES) includes
  the Reference Scenario (RS), Hurdle Rate Scenario
  (HS) and additional CO2 emission reduction target
  of 50 in 2050 (according to recommendations of
  the Directive 2009/29/EC) in relation to 1990
• Setting targets for CO2 emission increases the
  needs for insulation in buildings

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ANALYSIS RESULTSSupport Analysis Scenario

• Analysis of support i.e., subsidies of investment
  cost was performed for insulation and solar
  collectors
• Investment cost is subsidised by 10 to 70
  providing that in this scenario the share of the
  technology concerned in total final energy
  consumption is equal to the relevant share in the
  Emission Target Scenario
• Savings potential of insulation in households
  depends on investment, type of household
  (purchasing power) and energy consumption
• Well-off households (households with higher
  energy use for heating) have a higher savings
  potential of insulation
• The results of the Support Analysis Scenario
  roughly correspond with expected results of the
  experience analysis

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ANALYSIS RESULTSSupport Analysis Scenario (PS)

• Levels of needed support for insulations
• Houses with central heating 70 from 2030
• Houses with room heating 70 from 2020
• Apartments with central heating 20 from 2015
• Apartments with room heating 50 from 2020 and
  70 from 2030

Share of insulation in total energy consumption
for haeting
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ANALYSIS RESULTS

• Enhancing energy efficiency is the first priority
  in any countrys energy startegy and policy, over
  the entire process of energy production,
  transformation, transmission, distribution and
  consumption at end-user level.
• By accomplishing an efficient energy system the
  problems of mitigating CO2 and other green house
  gases emission will be alleviated.
• Energy efficiency as a measure is an obvious
  solution it is economically viable and further
  rise of energy prices will only add to its
  significance.
• Insulation in buildings has the highest potential
  for enhancing energy efficiency. The assumed
  insulation improvement of 5 at annual level in
  Croatia translates in to business activities
  worth 10 billion HRK (EUR 1.4 bn)

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CONCLUSION

• Steep decrease in CO2 and other GHG emissions
  will mean a dramatic change of the relations
  within the energy system, in terms both of
  production and consumption of energy
• In the energy consumption context, the end
  customers switch from fossil fuel based
  technologies to emission free technologies
• Use of fossil fuels is concentrated in places
  where their capture and sequestration is possible
  (large CHP plants with CCS option)
• The consumption of electricity generated from so
  called clean technolgies) will increase
  significantly, replacing other energy forms at
  end user level.

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CONCLUSION

• By including the enviromental protection costs,
  primarily the CO2 emission mitigation costs,
  financial competitivness of the technologies will
  be evaluated based on real energy prices
• Expected is a significant development and use of
  technologies, including nuclear technology, which
  do not generate CO2 and other GHG emissions
• Climate protection within the CO2 and GHG
  emission mitigation is a feasible project which
  must be based on an international agreement that
  involves all countries

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CONCLUSION

• It is necessary to set up a general framework
  for achieving the target energy policy and
  climate preservation policy in the Republic of
  Croatia
• In every energy process (from production,
  transformation, transmission, distribution to
  final consumption) energy consumption should be
  lower but without affecting the quality of
  service
• Enhancing energy efficiency in buildings
• Enhancing energy efficiency in all technological
  processes
• Encourage introduction of single evaluation of
  enviromental protection costs, primarily of CO2
  emission
• Discourage the use of technolgies that increase
  CO2 emission levels, and encourage all energy and
  technological solutions that are viable in long
  run in terms of climate preservation
• Create all necessary conditions for permanent
  increase of using renewable energy sources
• Systematically promote technological advancement
  with the aim to enhance energy efficiency and use
  of renewable energy sources.

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THANK YOU!
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