The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene therephthalate) (PET)

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The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy.
The Case of Poly(ethylene therephthalate) (PET)

• Snezana Krstic
• University of Belgrade
• Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy
• Serbia
• e-mail snezana_at_tmf.bg.ac.yu

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Industry of polymer materials
Polymer resins, granulate
Production sector
Manufacturing sector
Products solids, films, fibers,
Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy
Recovery sector
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Industry of polymer materials
Increasingly dynamic business sector
? Abut 100 million tons per year ? Consumption
rising steadily ? Tailor-made materials meet
most advanced technological requirements
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Industry of polymer materials
Challenges
Global economic downturn related to petrochemical
feedstock prices Environmental
pressures Legislative measures Market
fluctuations ..
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Industry of polymer materials
Response
to challanges
FTA
Future oriented technology analysis
to estimate market and industrial trends new
applications environmental challenges ..
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Economic forecast for polymer industry
? New investments in capacity ? Ratio between
production-manufacturing-recovery capacities ?
Economic incentives ? Fast growing markets in
Asia ? Resin market trends supply and demand ?
Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations ? Oil
prices
Upstream markets
Downstream markets
New applications Technological innovation
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PETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)
? Food and packaging industry ? Textile
industry ? Electronics ? Automotive sector
Excellent barrier properties Engineering
material Relatively low price Good recyclability
Mechanical (material melting) Chemical (chemical
or thermal decomposition) Energy recovery
(incineration)
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PETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)
Rapid market growth
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Forecasting PET market trends
Forecasted 2.48 million tons Real over 3.2
million tons
1995
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Forecasting PET market trends
a clear message
As much as we can expect growth of consumption,
in reality it can be even higher
Large volume of waste
Environmental impact
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FTA impact on policy
Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and
volume of waste
Full landfills
Environmental awareness on waste management
Policy measures worldwide
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EU policy related to polymer waste management
Several directives and proposals
concerning Packaging and packaging
waste End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste Electric
and electronic equipment waste Waste landfilling
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EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste
(1994)
Germany manufacturer responsibility Austria
industry pays collection France shared
responsibility Belgium eco-tax Netherlands
all users pay
Plastics Recovery 50 Recycling 15
Various national management approaches to meet
the targets
New technologies, new capacities
RESULT Increased recovery and recycling rates
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EU Directive on packaging and packaging waste
(1994)
New challenge
Increasing consumption
Forecasted
Stagnation in recycling rates
Forecasted
With the same recovery capacity larger portion of
waste for landfilling
New tough proposal for the Directive Recovery 60
Recycling 22.5
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FTA impact on policy - USA
FDA Food and drugs administration Focus on
application of recycled materials for new bottles
Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb
Technological innovation Product
design Recycling processes
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FTA impact on technological innovation
Forecasts concerning consumption and waste
increase
Innovations in recycling
- Innovated technologies for mechanical and
chemical recycling - Designing products more
suitable for recycling - New applications for
recycled materials
Sustainability condition
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FTA impact on technological innovation
Forecasts concerning market saturations
Innovations for virgin products
Better oxygen-barrier properties Hot
filling Sophisticated product designs
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FTA impact on technological innovation in various
business environments
? Large petrochemical complexes innovations
related to chemical and thermal decomposition of
material ? Manufacturing companies innovations
related to savings in materials for bottle
production ? SMEs innovations related to
product design and new applications
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Impact on developing countries
Raising environmental awareness
Different pathways
Rise in investments in capacities in various
developing countries
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Summary
Legislation
Market growth
Recovery
PET
Technol. innovation
New applic.
Manufacture
Production
FTA
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Conclusions
Economy
All dimension are crucial
Technology
Social issues
PET FTA
Environment
Future advancement of FTA deeper understanding of
qualitative information, their proper
interpretation and integration into the process