LOICZ II The next Generation of Global Coastal Change Science Land-Ocean interactions across multiple interfaces

1
LOICZ II The next Generation of Global
Coastal Change Science Land-Ocean interactions
across multiple interfaces
2003
2012
G. Flöser, LOICZ European Node, GKSS Research
Centre, Geesthacht, Germany
A core project of the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the
International Human Dimensions Programme on
Global Environmental Change
2
What is / was LOICZ?

• LOICZ Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
• Core Project of IGBP
• Phase I 1993-2002 concluded, Springer book
  available June 05. More than 20 scientific
  Reports.
• Aim to determine the dynamic nature of
  interaction between land, ocean and atmosphere
  and how changes in various components of the
  Earth system are affecting coastal zones .
• key biogeochemical features of global coastal
  seas
• 2300 scientists in 130 countries
• International Project Office in Texel, The
  Netherlands (hosted by NIOZ), 2 officers

3
Structure of International Global Change Research
Earth System Science Partnership
LOICZ wants to initiate, coordinate and summarize
coastal research worldwide
4
The Coastal Zone Societys Edge as defined by
elevation (200 to 100 to -100 to 200 m)
lt
of land surface

• A spatial and temporal edge
• high gradients/variability
• (e.g. climatic) / Biodiversity
• major biogeochemical processes
• Catchment - Shelf as a unit
• gt 50 of human population

• A resource sustainability edge
• 25 biological Productivity
• 90 global Fishery,
• Ecosyst. services 17.5 trillion
• (Global ES 33.3 trillion)

Wilson et al in prep.
5
Coastal Change in the Anthropocene

• Climatic Environmental Change (sea level,
  ocean currents, climate patterns, CO2,
  atmospheric deposition and cycles)

• Human pressure use
• (multiple effects on quality quantity of
  resource, products amenities, across scales and
  regions)

6
The river-coast continuum
Giving information
LOICZ Basins 1999-2002 biogeochemical budgeting
and classification of gt 200 catchment areas in 7
major studies
in a useful way
7
Provide improved critical load/threshold
information
8
What did we learn sources of nutrient production
versus coastal loads
4

• People per catchment and runoff are reasonable
  proxies for coastal system metabolism
• DIN and DIP load are 8 and 2-4 of the
  production
• DIN, DIP load may have tripled over the past 3
  decades and look like 5 times the pristine load

5
2
1
3

• Load still seems relatively low but there is
  potential of continued increase with growing
  population and land use.

Smith et al. 2003, BioScience 53
9
Global typology (½ database) showing estimated
regions of highly disturbed coastal
systems typology filter population density
gt60/km2 and cropland use gt10
10
Applying Typology approaches for the big
picture here estimates for DIP yield and load
to the world ocean

• Most of the world coastline still has low yield
• top blue (68 of coastal cells).
• High yield is locally restricted
• top red, yellow (1 - 2 of coastal cells).
• Most of the load comes from regions with low to
  intermediate yield
• Load will grow with population and land use
  change.

• DEFINITIONS
• Yield is material delivery per unit of
  catchment (mass km-2 yr-1).
• Load is total delivery ( mass km-2 yr-1 x km2
  mass yr-1).

after Smith et al 2003
11
The New LOICZ

• Connection to the International Human Dimensions
  Programme, another Core Project of ESSP
• Science plan is finished and available on the
  web www.loicz.org
• Example Cooperative Research Center (Australia)
  brings together decision makers tourism
  economy nature conservation

12
Cooperative Research Center, AustraliaBringing
together stakeholders interested in the Great
Barrier Reef

• Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators
• Australian Institute of Marine Science
• Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
• Great Barrier Reef Research Foundation
• James Cook University
• Queensland Department of Primary Industries and
  Fisheries
• Queensland Seafood Industry Association Inc.
• SUNFISH Queensland Inc.

13
Scaling Modeling
Acquisition
Overarching Theme 5 Towards coastal system
sustainability by managing land-ocean interactions
Theme 2 Implications of global change and land
and sea use on coastal development
Theme 1
Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to
human societies
Theme 4 Fate and transformation of materials in
coastal and shelf waters
Theme 3 Anthropogenic influences on the river
basin and coastal zone interactions
LOICZ 2003 - 2012
Variability
Dissemination
14
New LOICZ A process-based rolling synthesis
approach

• Theme 1 Vulnerability of coastal systems and
  hazards to human societies (exchange with, e.g.,
  GECHS, GECAFS, GWSP, WCRP)
• Sea level rise - Hard vs. soft coastal defences
• Natural hazards and life quality
• Impacts of global atmospheric / ocean climate
  change on coastal systems (downscaling)
• Variability of coastal vulnerability to
  environmental changes (Estuaries)
• Adaptation strategies to environmental changes
  and impact on health safety
• Theme 2 Implications of global change and land
  and sea use on coastal development (exchange
  with, e.g., Urbanization, Land (LUCC), IDGEC)
• Coastal urbanisation
• Changing dynamics (e.g. mangroves, salt marshes,
  dredging)
• Changing sea use sand and gravel mining,
  windmills, reclamation (including offshore),
  large scale engineering, oil and gas extraction,
  aquaculture

15
New LOICZ A process-based rolling synthesis
approach

• Theme 3 Anthropogenic influences on the river
  basin and coastal zone interactions (exchange
  with, e.g., GWSP, IDGEC, Land (LUCC))
• Damming
• Catchment modelling on nutrients and pollution
  scenarios
• Local governance and resource management
• Land Use and Cover Change and critical
  thresholds of mass transport
• Theme 4 Fate and transformation of materials in
  coastal and shelf waters (exchange with, e.g.,
  IMBER, SOLAS, GLOBEC)
• Local burial versus long distant export of
  matter
• Use of global (satellite) coastal monitoring
  data
• Coastal Estuarine software (freeware/shareware)
  
• Interaction between coastal habitats/ecosystems
  and C/N/P sources/sinks
• Refining techniques for coastal biogeochemical
  budgets including error analysis
• Trace gasses in the coastal zone
• Geochemical cycling of Hg in the coastal zone

BALTEX II Objectives Gradual extension of
BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality
studies
16
New LOICZ A process-based rolling synthesis
approach

• Overarching -Theme 5
• Towards coastal system sustainability by managing
  land-ocean interactions (exchange with, e.g.,
  IHDP, DIVERSITAS)
• Changing economic valuation of coastal
  ecosystems (also under 2)
• Criteria of coastal sustainability (resources,
  ecological)
• Different governance strategies for coastal zone
  management and Indicators of management
  efficiency
• Contents and tools of adaptive management

17
The Baltic Sea

• was part of LOICZ in the biogeochemical budgeting
  procedure (Vistula, Gulf of Finland, Odra
  projects)
• is part in the SINCOS EU project

18
Applying the typology to the Baltic Sea Region
19
River basins covered in global typology dataset
20
The Odra Project (IOW)www.ikzm-oder.de

• is a regional project of the New LOICZ
• immediately feeds into the themes 2, 3 and 5
• is transboundary
• includes stakeholders on river basin management
• LOICZ wants comparison to other river basins

21
Thank you!