Man Made Effects on Space Weather

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Man Made Effects on Space Weather
Maj. Roger Hill / NSSA Dr. Mark Pesses /
SAIC Presented To Dr. Hastings Chief Scientist
of the Air Force
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Introduction

• The National Security Space Architect (NSSA) has
  completed a 16 month project of designing a
  multi-service, multi-agency space weather (SWx)
  architecture.
• The study addressed space weather effects on all
  anticipated elements in the 2010 to 2025
  timeframe that would be need to support the DoD
  and other US assets used for operations,
  navigation communications and associated ground
  elements.

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Manmade Influences Tiger Team

• The Chief Scientist of the Air Force requested
  that the SWx architecture study include potential
  impacts on space weather due to manmade
  influences on the near-Earth space environment.
  These impacts could be significant drivers within
  the architecture alternatives.
• To ensure these concerns were addressed, and to
  fully explore the trade-space during development
  of the SWx architecture, a Manmade Influences
  Tiger Team (M2IT2) was established to expand the
  original study.

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MMITT Charter

• Identify and understand manmade effects on the
  near-earth environment and their relationship to
  space weather effects
• Identify the sensors and models currently used to
  locate and assess manmade effects and determine
  their impact on the environment
• Assess the candidate space weather architectures
  to determine their ability to meet future system
  needs for detecting man-made influences on space
  weather

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MMITT Charter

• Determine what is need to be added to the
  candidate architectures to be able to detect and
  characterize man-made changes to the SWx
  environment
• Recommend additional sensors and models where
  necessary to extend the capability of SWx
  architecture to include the influence of manmade
  effects on the natural geospace environment
• Coordinate findings with the Integration Panel,
  and Design, Cost, and Analysis Teams

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Space Weather Overview
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Solar Flares
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Magnetic Storms
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Appleton Anomaly
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HANE
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Ionospheric Heaters
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HAARP
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Chemical Releases Particle Beams
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Electromagnetic Radiation

• The EM radiation associated with manmade and SWx
  phenomena differ in three very important ways
• The x-ray and gamma-ray signature of SWx
  phenomena persist for seconds to minutes compared
  to nanoseconds for HANEs.
• Radiation from HANEs decreases as the square of
  the distance from the burst point, while
  radiation from flares is essentially constant
  throughout the sunlit hemisphere of Geospace.
• Radiation from flares effects the entire sunlit
  hemisphere while the radiation from HANEs and
  chemical releases is limited to the line-of-site
  or magnetic field contained footprint, and is
  much smaller.

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Electromagnetic Radiation
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Particle Radiation

• The major differences between manmade and natural
  phenomena are
• HANEs do not produce energetic ions except for
  alpha particles while flares and magnetic storms
  produce a multitude of ion types to include
  energetic H, He, C, N, O and Fe ions and
• HANEs produce antimatter while natural SWx events
  do not.
• HANES produce a much higher number of highly
  energetic electrons than do natural phenomena.

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Particle Radiation
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Information Transmission Reception

• In this area, man-made and natural SWx
  phenomena are similar but have two important
  differences. First, HANE produces effects that
  interfere with higher frequencies than solar
  flares and magnetic storms. Second, man-made
  effects are localized while flare effects are
  primarily hemispheric and magnetic storm effects
  are global.

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Information Transmission Reception
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SWx Summary

• While the electromagnetic and corpuscular
  environments produced by manmade and natural
  disturbances are similar, in almost every
  environmental domain, the spatial and temporal
  spheres of manmade influences are orders of
  magnitude smaller than that of naturally
  occurring phenomena
• HANE will adversely effect SWx assets that have
  been only harden against natural radiation
  hazards Similarly, natural SWx phenomena can
  adversely effect national security and warfighter
  assets that are only hardened against HANE
  radiation hazards.

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Architecture Elements That Will Provide NuDet Data
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Architecture Elements That Will Provide
Potentially Useful NuDet Data
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NuDet detectors and those that have the
capability to provide SWx data
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Joint Dissemination

• Currently the UV, X-Ray and Gamma-Ray NuDet data
  are sent only to AFTEC while the energetic
  particle data are sent to Los Alamos National
  Laboratory (LANL) and 55th Air Squadron. If a
  Gamma-ray Burst is detected AFTECT request LANL
  to determine if it might have been associated
  with high-energy electron event creating
  contamination of the Gamma-Ray sensor. LANL also
  uses the energetic particle data for space
  physics research.

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Findings

• While the EM and particle environments produced
  by manmade and natural disturbances are similar,
  in almost every environmental domain, the spatial
  and temporal spheres of manmade influences are
  orders of magnitude smaller than that of
  naturally occurring phenomena.
• Within these spheres of influence, Manmade
  effects have more impact on national security
  assets and the warfighter in the these areas
  gamma-ray, X-ray and neutron doses inner Van
  Allen belt electron dose propagation of
  electromagnetic signals at HF and lower
  frequencies EMP voltage, and IR backgrounds.

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Findings Cont.

• SWx sensors are not adequate for detection of
  nuclear events
• Limited prompt radiation detection
• Limited particulate detection
• HANEs adversely effect SWx assets that are
  only hardened against solar flare and magnetic
  storm radiation hazards.
• Ionospheric Heating and Chemical Release are not
  significant threats with present or projected
  technology

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Findings Cont.

• The time and effort required for the LANL NuDet
  energetic particle data to reach to 55th space
  weather squadron can be significantly reduced.
• The ability to monitor neutron and gamma events
  will be severely degraded with the phase-out of
  the Advanced Radiation Capability (ARII) suite of
  sensors on GEO satellites
• This will impact development of improved models
  for the Radiation Belt, Ionosphere, Neutral
  Atmosphere, PCA, and Scintillation.

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RECOMMENDATION A

• Integrate relevant NuDet and SWx data
• NuDet particle data can be used by the SWx
  community during times of peace and NuDet
  electromagnetic and particle data also during
  times of war.
• SWx particle data can be used by the NuDet
  community for monitoring tests and during times
  or war.

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RECOMMENDATION B

• Establish a single agency responsible for
  real-time/near real-time products characterizing
  nuclear events and long-term effects
• Improve the codes that model the temporal and
  spatial characteristics of the beta electron
  environment
• Develop codes which will allow a rapid
  calculation of the electron environment and rapid
  dissemination of the data to users
• The NuDet community does not have this capability
  and the 2010-1025 SWx models combined with NuDet
  data should go along way to forecasting the
  mid-term and long-term effects of nuclear
  explosion.
• Fund the development and deployment of sensors
  capable of monitoring neutron and gamma events
  Data needed for SWx models of Radiation Belt,
  Ionosphere, Neutral Atmosphere, PCA, and
  Scintillation

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RECOMMENDATION C

• Expand the NPOESS constellation to 3 hardened
  satellites with 120 degrees of separation in
  longitude. The additions of these hardened
  satellites will provide a reliable method of
  monitoring the evolution of radiation belts
  following HANE or extremely severe magnetic
  storms.