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An Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign TPARC David Parsons Cochair, North Americ

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Title: An Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign TPARC David Parsons Cochair, North Americ


1
THORPEX Pat Harr Slides courtesy of Dave
Burridge and Dave Parsons
2
  • OUTLINE
  • THORPEX overview
  • THORPEX- Pacific Regional Campaign (T-PaRC)
  • Discussion

3
  • Science and Implementation Plans
  • www.wmo.int/thorpex
  • Four sub-programmes TIGGE
  • Predictability and Dynamical Processes
  • Observing Systems
  • Data Assimilation and Observing strategies
  • Societal and Economic Applications
  • First Science Symposium (Montreal,2004)
  • Second Science Symposium
  • (December, 2006)

4
THORPEX is a significant contribution towards the
WMO effort to mitigate the effects of natural
disasters THORPEX will fully realise the
societal and economic benefits of improved
weather forecast especially in developing and
least developed countries extend the range of
skilful weather forecasts of high impact weather
up to 14 days and beyond Develop accurate and
timely warnings in a form that can be readily
used in decision-making support tools
5
  • ORGANISATION
  • International committee structure for the science
    established
  • Regional THORPEX Committees coordinate activities
    of regional groups of nations
  • North America (NARC),
  • Asia (ARC),
  • Europe (ERC), and
  • Southern Hemisphere (SHRC)
  • The International Projects Office directs,
    coordinates and monitors activities

6
REGIONAL COMMITTEES The implementation of the
international structure for THORPEX has
revitalised activities in each region The ARC,
ERC, NARC and the SHRC are now developing
implementation plans for their THORPEX
involvement A first draft of an African (mainly
north of the equator) THORPEX plan will be
discussed in Niamey in January 2007 Development
of a major international plan for a Pacific
Regional Campaign (TPARC) and an integrated plan
for European Regional Campaigns
7
A Major THORPEX deliverable is a Global
Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
  • End-to-end forecast system tuned for end users,
    using targeted observations called on in
    sensitive areas, adaptive data assimilation,
    probabilistic forecasting, grid computing and
    distributed archives accessible through a single
    entry point.

8
REGIONAL CAMPAIGNS Contributing to elements of a
GIFS
  • ATREC (2003) many groups are actively working
    with the data
  • European ETReC D-Phase (MAP), COPS
  • THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC
    2008) cyclone tracks, extra-tropical
    transitions, tropical warm-pool physics and
    down-stream propagation (link to, Beijing
    Olympics International Polar Year)
  • Winter Olympics in Canada (2010)
  • Tropical convection (2012)

9
Lothar (TL255 rerun of operational EPS)
14 EPS members with greater intensity storms than
verification
10
TIGGE a major element of a GIFS
An enhanced collaboration on development of
ensemble prediction, internationally and between
operational centres and universities New methods
of combining ensembles from different sources and
of correcting for systematic errors (biases,
spread over-/under-estimation) A deeper
understanding of the contribution of observation,
initial and model uncertainties to forecast
error Real-time support for demonstration
projects and field experiments Societal
applications leading to increased benefits to
society
11
TIGGE
  • TIGGE Workshop (March 2006)
  • Technical proposal for Phase 1 (global) developed
    by archive centres and agreed by ten potential
    providers (BMRC, CMA, ECMWF, FNMOC, JMA, KMA,
    Meteo-France, Environment Canada, NCEP, UKMO)
  • CMA, ECMWF and NCAR (the three phase 1 archive
    centres) have been in close contact for some time
    and test data have been sent routinely from ECMWF
    to NCAR
  • Access to the data base of global forecasts will
    be possible in Autumn 2006

12
PARTNERSHIPS FOR RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT
With the WCRP Joint project to develop a unified
approach to the development of high-resolution
systems for weather prediction, seasonal
forecasting and climate simulation With
GEOSS Contribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas
for health, weather (TIGGE), agriculture and
energy With IPY To improve the understanding of
physical/dynamical processes in polar regions
utilise improved forecasts for the benefit of
society, the economy and the environment With
AMMA Involvement with the AMMA field campaign -
results in stronger links for observing system
experiments, modelling predictability and
societal and economic applications
13
New Structure for the CAS
Plan for WWRP comparable with that for WCRP
14
A Brief Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific Asian
Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Assembled By D.
Parsons, P. Harr, and T. Nakazawa
15
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
  • Summer Fall 2008
  • Initial motivation from Asian and North American
    Regional Committees with hopes for some
    significant EU participation
  • Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall,
    typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with
    research interests in
  • tropical cyclone formation
  • intensification
  • Motion/track
  • decay and/or ET
  • North American societal impacts from downstream
    effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact
    weather with research interests in
  • tropical and midlatitude predictability
  • tropical cyclones,
  • ET
  • intense extratropical cyclogenesis

16
T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY
Winter storms reconnaissance and driftsonde
NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar
17
Proposing Institutions According to Regional
Chairs
  • North America
  • US Academic Community SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of
    Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North
    Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington,
    U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of
    Wisconsin, Florida State U
  • US Research Institutions NCAR, NOAA/NCEP,
    NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard
  • Canadian U McGill, MSC and Others
  • Asia
  • China Chinese Academy of Meteorological
    Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration
    plus members of the Academic Community in China
  • Japan Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine
    Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U,
    Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo
  • Korea Korean Meteorological Administration,
    Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National
    U, Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei
  • Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program
  • Europe
  • Germany U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der
    Atmosphäre, DLR
  • Hopefully Met Centers (ECMWF, Meteo France, Met
    Office, etc)
  • Note work with TIGGE will result in
    collaborations with all the worlds global
    forecast centers.

18
  • Scientific Objectives
  • Advancing knowledge of the factors that limit the
    regional and downstream predictability of
    high-impact weather events (e.g, persistent deep
    convection, tropical cyclones, extratropical
    transition events, and other intense cyclogenesis
    events) that occur over the North Pacific,
    adjacent land areas and other downstream areas
  • 2) Improved understanding of forecast error
    growth and the role of scale interactions
  • 3) Developing, advancing, and evaluating data
    assimilation strategies in concert with superior
    utilization of satellite measurements with the
    goal of improving prediction of high-impact
    weather events both over the Pacific rim and
    downstream locations
  • 4) To quantitatively predict the reduction in
    forecast error variance due to supplemental/targe
    ted observations and to test new strategies and
    observational systems for adaptive observing and
    modeling

What causes decreased predictability? How is
predictability decreased? What is needed to
prevent decreases in predictability?
19
Scientific Objectives
5) Testing the improvement in local and
downstream forecast skill afforded by
high-resolution, non-hydrostatic modeling of
these high-impact weather events 6)
Improving the interpretation and utility of
ensemble forecast systems 7) Advancing
knowledge of the dynamics that produce high
impact weather events over the North Pacific and
govern the downstream response to processes over
the North Pacific and western Asia 8)
Understanding and improving societys response to
weather disasters, including the appropriate use
and evaluation of probabilistic information, and
estimating the value to society that results
from improvements in forecast skill.
20
ASIAN THORPEX Committee
supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
21
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22
Examples of Asian and North American Forecast
Challenges
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis

23
Percentages of Occurrence of OCCs, 2004
L
TD
ALL
TS
Courtesy of Bessho et al.
24
DOCC (left) vs. NOCC (right)
Error in the low-levels
AMSU retrieved air temperature anomalies detect
warm core in the earliest stages of organized
convection for systems that become tropical
cyclones --why and can this be predicted?
Courtesy of Bessho et al.
25
Examples of Asian and North American Forecast
Challenges
  • Prediction of Tropical Convection, Typhoon
    Genesis
  • Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for
    Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

26
Minnesota Flood 9-11 June 2002
From Dave Parsons
27
Wisc./Chi. flood event associated with the
previous wave packet
Mei-Yu convection
Wisc/Chi. flood
Mn flood
28
Typhoon Tokage, After Killing Almost 100 People,
is Worst in Japan in 25 Years Japans 10
Typhoons in 2004 are Record for Worst Ever (Oct.
2004)
Total Damages in public infrastructure(agriculture
, Road, etc) by Typhoon and Heavy Rainfall in
Japan this year are US 10 billion. Typhoon
Tokage insurance claims are estimated at 88.5
billion Yen (839 million). U. S. projects
nationwide hurricane damages in 2004 at 850
million.
  • Tokyo, Japan (HDW) October 23, 2004 - Typhoon
    Tokage ravaged Kyoto and Tokyo on Japans main
    islands, potentially killing almost 100 people.
    This typhoon is reported to be the worst since
    1979, making it the worst in a generation. Japan
    has suffered through 10 typhoons this year, which
    makes this the worst typhoon season by far in
    Japans history. The 2004 season has also been
    the worst hurricane season on record for the
    State of Florida within the United States, and
    the worst typhoon season for the country of China
    within Asia. Researchers are still trying to
    setermine exactly what made this one of the worst
    seasons globally for cyclone activity. The
    picture above, taken by a NASA satellite, shows
    Typhoon Tokage devastating the Japanese main
    islands.Typhoon Tokage was originally expected to
    weaken, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning
    Center (JWTC), as it tracked into cooler sea
    surface temperatures and sucked drier air into
    itself, but the storm maintained much of its
    strength as it moved through the ancient Japanese
    capital of Kyoto, and the modern Japanese capital
    of Tokyo. This typhoon was originally expected to
    lose power and spare major Japanese cities from
    the calamities of other typhoons that have hit
    Japan in this worst of Japanese typhoon seasons.
    Typhoon Tokage, however, caused great flooding
    and heavy rains, and many people are still
    missing. (http//www.hdweather.com/typhoon/typhoo
    n_361.htm)

29
Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET
Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia
TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA
ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
30
(No Transcript)
31
Ensemble Forecast for Tokage Initial 8 day
before landfall
Northward
Westward
32
(No Transcript)
33
(No Transcript)
34
(No Transcript)
35
Examples of Asian and North American Forecast
Challenges
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts
    for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
  • Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense
    Middle Latitude Cyclogenesis Events and Their
    Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern
    Wave Guide

36
The Arctic A residence in Shishmaref, Alaska A
Direct Hit By Tokage After ET (Loss of Permafrost
Coupled with Wave Actions)
Courtesy of James Partain, NWS
37
Major precipitation event on the west coast of
North America at the timeTokage is making
landfall on Japan
20 Oct 2004
27 Oct 2004
Downstream Indirect Impacts
38
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies 40o-60o N
200 hPa
TY Tokage
West coast rainfall event
20 October
39
(No Transcript)
40
TY Saola
TY Nabi
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
41
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies
Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream
response
Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced
downstream response
42
Ex-TY Nabi
Ex-TY Saola
43
TY SAOLA
Forecast Verification
500 hPa heights
NOGAPS
Forecast Verification
GFS
44
  • Major Science Issues
  • Mechanisms
  • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
  • - influence of TC structure
  • - outflow
  • - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the
    midlatitude flow
  • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow
    characteristics

Midlatitude impact region
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface
45
  • Major Science Issues
  • Mechanisms
  • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
  • - influence of TC structure
  • - outflow
  • - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the
    midlatitude flow
  • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow
    characteristics
  • Predictability (understanding and assessment)
  • - Ensemble spread
  • - Forecast difficulty
  • - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream
    response
  • - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their
    propagation throughout the forecast cycle
  • Predictability (increase)
  • - Data sampling strategies
  • - adequate sampling of important physical
    characteristics
  • - data platform types
  • - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

46
Forecast Skill Bifurcation
ETs are Common in the T-PARC Region With
Decreased Hemispheric Predictability
ET Tracks
From Jones et al., 2003 Wea. And Forecasting
47
Downstream Impacts
TY Tokage
A plume of increased std. dev. In the GFS
ensemble prediction system propagates downstream
of the extratropical transition forecast
position.
1200 UTC October 2005
TY Tokage
http//agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/
48
TY Nabi
TY Saola
Different response to ET but similar reduction in
forecast skill
49
MOTIVATION IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
Hurricane Maria
TY Saola
TY Nabi
50
Examples of Asian and North American Forecast
Challenges
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts
    for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
  • Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense
    Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their
    Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern
    Wave Guide
  • Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection,
    Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the
    Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide

51
A Series of Three Poorly Predicted Major
Downstream Events Initiated by Tropical Convection
Western WA flood (Seattle 1-day record)

BCs flood of the Century (18.5)

Materials provided by L. McMurdie, M. Shapiro,
and D. Parsons
CA Wild Fires (downslope winds)
52
(No Transcript)
53
Region of tropical cyclones
BCs flood of the Century (18.5)
Western WA Flood (Seattle 1-day record)
CA Wild Fires (downslope winds)
54
Examples of Asian and North American Forecast
Challenges
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
  • Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts
    for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
  • Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense
    Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their
    Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern
    Wave Guide
  • Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection,
    Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the
    Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide
  • To Target or Not to Target That Is The
    Question! or is it When Do We Target and How
    (satellite, lidar winds or In-situ Sensing?

55
(No Transcript)
56
Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts
BST Observation RTN Operational GSM with
dropsonde data with typhoon bogusing NDS
Expriment 1 w/o dropsonde data with typhoon
bogusing NTS Experiment 2 w/o dropsonde data
w/o typhoon bogusing Typhoon centers are plotted
6-hourly.
57
T-PARC North American Components
TY Nabi, 29 Aug 8 Sep, 2005
Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, HIAPER,
Aerosonde
Extratropical Transition, Winter Storms
and Downstream Impacts
Japan, Yokota AFB
ET characteristics, forcing of downstream
impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions,
extratropical cyclogenesis
Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3,
TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude
interaction
Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3,
Aerosonde
Okinawa, Kadena AFB
Tropical Measurements
Large-scale circulation, deep convection,
monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation
Guam, Anderson AFB
58
T-PARC
  • Tropical and ET Measurements
  • Driftsondes
  • Launch from Hawaii or suitable location
  • 30 gondolas, 50 sondes/gondola
  • Multiple heights to get broad coverage
  • August-September 2008
  • NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes
  • Operation from Anderson AFB, Guam and Kadena AFB,
    Okinawa
  • Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions _at_ 10 h
    each )
  • Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per
    mission)
  • Other Components
  • DOTSTAR
  • Tibetan Plateau Observations
  • Satellite MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting
    platforms

59
NRL P-3 Strategy
Simulated Driftsonde Trajectories
Monsoon Depression Pre-TY Robyn
Guam
(Supplied by W.-C. Lee and M.-D. Chou)
Figures from Harr et al. (1996)
60
(No Transcript)
61
T-PARC
  • Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts
  • Gulfstream-V High Performance Instrumented
    Airborne Platform for Environmental Research
    (HIAPER)
  • Operation from Yokota AFB, Japan
  • 150 research hours (15 missions _at_ 10 h each)
  • 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)
  • DLR Wind Lidar
  • NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes
  • Operation from Kadena AFB, Okinawa and Yokota
    AFB, Japan
  • Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions _at_ 10 h
    each )
  • Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per
    mission)
  • Other Components
  • DOTSTAR
  • Enhanced Siberian Observation network
  • Korean/Japan contributions to Targeting Aircraft
  • Satellite MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting
    platforms

62
Components
From Klein et al. (2000)
  • Downstream impacts may be forced by
  • Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind
    associated with remaining deep convection in the
    tropical cyclone core region
  • Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to
    latent-heat release in an area of strong warm
    frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude
    interface region
  • Import of energy into the midlatitudes via
    interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow
    and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude
    impact region.

63
Tropical Cyclone midlatitude interface region
NSF/NCAR HIAPER G-V Strategies
Midlatitude impact region
64
T-PARC
  • Winter Storms and Downstream Impacts
  • Driftsondes
  • Launch from two locations throughout Japan
  • Missions at mutliple heights
  • 30 gondolas with 30 sondes each
  • 5-week period Nov-Dec 2008
  • Other Components
  • NOAA G-IV Shifted Westward toward Asia
  • Hurricane Hunter Training flights in Central
    Pacific for the Winter Reconnaissance Program
  • Enhanced Siberian Observation network
  • Satellite MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting
    platforms

65
T-PARC a global effort
  • In the spirit of A-TREC, the North America and
    Asian Regional Committees encourage scientific
    participation from other regions
  • Based on the Cardinali (ECMWF) and Weissmann
    (DLR) results, the DLR Doppler lidar on HIAPER is
    our highest (and currently only) observational
    system requested from the EU. It is a high
    priority for T-PARC, but may be difficult for us
    to fully fund.
  • We have requested TIGGE in real-time for the
    field phase.
  • We ask that the operational centers in the EU
    consider data impact and denial studies for
    T-PARC.
  • We hope that some of the research expertise from
    the EU academic, operational and research
    laboratories become entrained into T-PARC in the
    areas of ET, Rossby wave dynamics, data
    assimilation and other fields. This is happening
    already and T-PARC, like other THORPEX efforts,
    will have a relatively open data policy.

66
T-PARC Status
  • Science Plan Overview and the Experiment Design
    Overview submitted to NSF in January 2006 and
    received very strong scientific reviews
  • Includes letters-of-intent from approximately 30
    investigators
  • Approved to allow submission of a detailed
    facility request document.
  • Facility Request for NSF/EOL supported platforms
    submitted September 2006
  • International
  • Funding in place for several components
  • Canada (100-150K for instrumentation, plus
    in-kind scientific support)
  • Korea
  • DOTSTAR
  • Tibetan Plateau
  • Others to be defined at the Asian THORPEX meeting
    in October 2006.
  • Driftsonde
  • Observations for the 2008 Olympics
  • Korean or Japan airborne facilities

67
  • Discussion
  • Further input from T-PARC countries
  • Suggestions to T-PARC Committee
  • Suggestions for other THORPEX tropical related
    priorities and activities
  • Thank you!
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