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... ahead of your time is disapointing. Being good ... How promising an idea has to be to spend time with it ... We are conditioned to think of time as flexible ' ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: http:www.sxc.huphoto356005


1
How to innovate on time
Scott BerkunAuthor Consultantwww.scottberkun.c
om
OReilly Emerging technology conference March 2007
http//www.sxc.hu/photo/356005
2
How to innovate on time
  • Intro
  • How to innovate
  • How to be on time
  • How to innovate on time
  • QA

3
Hi Im Scott
  • MSFT 94-03
  • IE 1-5, MSN, Windows
  • Now Author/Speaker
  • The Art of Project Management (05)
  • The Myths of Innovation (May 07)
  • www.scottberkun.com

4
Innovate \In"novate\, v. To begin or introduce
something for the first time Innovation is
always relative
5
  • The diffusion of
  • innovation is a
  • social process,
  • based more on
  • psychology and
  • sociology than
  • technology.

6
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7
Does innovation mean. Being first? Being
better? Winning?
8
Progress Innovation Success Innovation
Is succeeding without innovation worse than
failing with innovation?
9
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10
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11
Frustrated innovators
  • Vincent Van Gogh, Jackson Pollock
  • Farnsworth (TV)
  • Carson (Copy Machine)
  • Douglas Englebart (Mouse)
  • Alan Kay (Smalltalk)
  • Chesterburough (Vaseline)
  • Holland (Submarine)
  • Being ahead of your time is disapointing

12
Being good vs. being innovative
  • Often innovation is a side-effect
  • We were trying to do X and needed Y and Z
  • Few major innovators obsessed about how
    innovative they were or not
  • Do focus on
  • Solving a problem for a customer
  • Profiting from the solution
  • But avoid Jargon
  • Incremental innovation
  • Disruptive innovation

13
Innovation is risk
  • Exploring is expensive
  • Investments in innovation are unpredictable
  • Many start-ups tried to sell first
  • Factors beyond your control
  • Markets, economies politics
  • Fads, trends and social movements
  • Competitors
  • Consumer behavior
  • Stories The computer WWII, DaVinci Helicopter,
    PC/GUI (1968 to 1984)

14
Summary so far
  • Innovation is a social function
  • Defined by exposure to unknowns
  • Good is hard enough a better bet
  • We romanticize / exaggerate successes

15
How to innovate on time
  • Intro
  • How to innovate
  • How to be on time
  • How to innovate on time
  • QA

16
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17
?
18
?
?
?
?
19
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20
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21
?
?
?
?
22
How innovation happens
  • All the clichés are true, but
  • Most innovations happen through
  • Committed work by experts
  • Unexpected discovery followed by work
  • Outsiders w/ideas (who work hard)
  • Hard work, risk and luck required
  • Stories
  • Newtons Apple, Teflon, Aspartame, Velcro

23
Challenge
  • What are the necessary conditions for a person to
    successfully innovate?

24
What you need
  • A motivation or direction
  • Creative thinking / experimenter mentality
  • Ability to convert dead ends into new motivations
    / directions
  • Ignorance of, or desire to challenge, status quo
  • Threshold for risk comfort w/uncertainty
  • Time/ for hard work

25
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26
Creative Thinking
  • Creative thinking is easy be willing to be
    embarrassed
  • Facists dont make for creative thinkers
  • Creativity / flow demands intimacy more than
    intellect or genius
  • Rules from Improv comedy
  • Yes and
  • No half-assing
  • No apologies
  • Make the other guy look good

27
Exercise
  • Describe attributes of the perfect cell phone
  • Describe attributes of the perfect 10 cell phone
  • Describe the worst cell phone imaginable

28
Exercise
  • Challenge words (perfect, leading, popular)
  • Constraints (cost, time, size, speed)
  • Inversion (worst, slowest, smelliest, ugliest)
  • Hybrid

29
A direction
  • Find things that suck
  • What should be but isnt? (Shaw)
  • Cynics and complainers are great sources for
    inspiration
  • Imagine a 50 million budget for your current
    project how would your goals change?
  • Stories
  • Einstein, Galileo, Crick Watson (DNA)
  • Amazon.com, Google, hotmail.com, Frontpage

30
Exercise
  • Name something that sucks
  • Name 5 specific reasons why
  • Invert into possible ideas

31
Opportunity
  • No magic answer to
  • When to abandon idea X and switch to Y
  • How promising an idea has to be to spend time
    with it
  • How innovative or good something needs to be to
    succeed
  • However, success depends on these beyond formula
    decisions
  • Persistence Copy machine, mouse, PC
  • Direction change Post it note, silly putty,
    Flickr

32
Hard work
  • Dyson vacuum 5000 prototypes
  • Edison light bulb 100 to 1
  • Hemmingway novel 99 to 1
  • Innovation creates work reopens questions and
    breaks assumptions
  • People like compatibility and status quo
  • Stories DVORAK keyboard, Metric system

33
How to innovate on time
  • Intro
  • How to innovate
  • How to be on time
  • How to innovate on time
  • QA

34
We are always late
  • Things that start late
  • Meetings
  • Parties
  • Classes (hmmm)
  • Dinner reservations, doctors office
  • Concerts and events
  • We are conditioned to think of time as flexible
  • Meet me at 1pm at the coffee shop somewhere
    between 1255 and 110pm.

35
Research on software projects
31 of all project cancelled 52 will cost 189
of original estimate 16.2 finish on time, on
budget
http//www.standishgroup.com/sample_research/chaos
_1994_2.php
36
Exercise
  • Think of the last project you worked on, with
    goals for innovation, that did not finish on time
  • What factors contributed to being late?

37
Why schedules are late simple
  • Anything that goes wrong, makes you late.
  • Anytime you prioritize something above of the
    schedule, you will be late.

38
Why schedules are late complex
  • Many interconnected factors
  • Requirements and schedule not sane
  • Fuzzy vision, low quality specs
  • Technical oversights / Weak estimations
  • Poor communication
  • Leadership mistakes
  • Poor co-ordination
  • Changing requirements without changing schedule
  • Generally stupid decisions (or people)

39
The creative ego
  • It was more work than I could finish in a
    lifetime. Yet I signed a contract 5 years. My
    curse to take on more than I can possibly do.
    Madness!
  • Michelangelo
  • I double dog dare you
  • - A Christmas story

40
The common failure pattern
41
Remaining work
Time
42
Remaining work
Time
43
Remaining work
Time
44
Remaining work
Time
45
Remaining work
Time
46
Remaining work
Time
47
Why it gets harder (1 of 3)
48
Remaining work
Time
49
?
Remaining work
Time
50
Remaining work
Time
51
Remaining work
45
35
Time
52
Endgame
Remaining work
20
Time
53
Why it gets harder (2 of 3)
54
Deadline
Effort
Scheduled Real
Time
55
Deadline
Effort
Scheduled Real
Time
56
Why it gets worse (3 of 3)
57
From Quality software management, Vol 1, Weinberg
(Dorsett House, 1998)
58
The hypothesis
  • If the work gets harder
  • And effort is constant (e.g. maximum)
  • Progress will slow
  • Example Jigsaw puzzle vs. packing for a trip

59
Assuming team effort is constant
Rate of progress
Time
60
Assuming team effort is constant
Rate of progress
Time
61
Endgame
Remaining work
20
Time
62
Remaining work
45
35
Time
63
How to be on time
  • Acknowledge that most things are late
  • Review previous project accuracy before planning
    the next
  • Explore aggressively / Commit conservatively
  • Make everyone aware of common failures
  • Plot curves, not lines, for endgame

64
How to innovate on time
  • Intro
  • How to innovate
  • How to be on time
  • How to innovate on time
  • QA

65
Challenge
  • Who here has innovated on time?

66
Innovation as a commodity
  • How much innovation in how much time?
  • Innovation costs more how will you pay?
  • What can you sacrifice?
  • Quality
  • Cost (think demo automobiles or first PC)
  • Schedule
  • Expected features
  • Mental health
  • Commitment to ship (Research prototype)

67
How to innovate on time
  • Have an experimental milestone (20 time)
  • Define criteria for passing milestones
    (subjective is ok)
  • For major decisions always have of options at
    different levels of innovation / risk
  • Choice A High risk
  • Choice B Medium risk
  • Choice C low risk
  • Etc.

68
Design
Implement
Test
69
?
Release
Big Idea
70
Problem space
Release
Big idea
71
Release
Big Idea
72
Release
Big Idea
73
Release
Big Idea
74
Release
Big Idea
One design
Brainstorm or Affinity
threealternatives
twoalternatives
75
Release
Big Ideas
76
Engineering
Design
Test
Time
77
How to innovate on time
  • Intro
  • How to innovate
  • How to be on time
  • How to innovate on time
  • QA

78
Summary
  • Innovation sociology technology
  • How Experiments, motivation, resilience against
    status-quo, workaholic
  • How Explore aggressively, schedule
    conservatively
  • Creative milestones control risk

79
Talk Tuesday 5pm, Douglas B The myths of
innovation QUESTIONS? Myths of Innovation book
out MAY 2007 OReilly MediaWWW.SCOTTBERKUN.COM
80
Photo credits
  • Hiking, http//www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?fdownload
    id638049
  • Treasure map, http//www.sxc.hu/photo/575957
  • Katana, http//www.sxc.hu/photo/456847
  • Mice prototypes, http//www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/
    cs6751_97_fall/projects/follow_me/hw4/douglas.html
  • Overboard, http//www.adaathletics.homestead.com/
    Fourth02.html
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