Our members have a range of views and preferences regardin

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Federal Climate Change Debate Local Government
Climate SummitWashington, DCApril 8, 2008

• Manik Roy, Ph.D.
• Director of Congressional Affairs
• Pew Center on Global Climate Change
• www.pewclimate.org

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Overview of Presentation

• Overview
• Who is the Pew Center?
• Climate Science
• Congressional climate debate through 2006
• State action
• Business developments
• Current federal climate policy debate
• Crystal Ball

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Pew Center on Global Climate Change

• Founded in May 1998
• Independent, non-profit, non-partisan
• Divided into five major program areas
• Scientific Studies/Analyses
• Domestic and International Strategies
• Outreach Activities
• Business
• States
• Solutions
• Communications

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Business Environmental Leadership Council
44 BELC Companies

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Climate Science
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Climate Science

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (IPCC), a joint effort of the world's top climate
  scientists, reports unequivocally that
• Global sea level rise has accelerated
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined
  on average around the world
• Average Arctic sea extent ice has shrunk by 20
  at its summertime minimum since satellite
  observations began in 1978 and
• More intense and longer droughts have been
  observed over wider areas since the 1970s,
  particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

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Climate Science

• The IPCC reports with 90 certainty that
• Most of the observed warming over the past
  half-century has been caused by human activities
• Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
  precipitation events will continue to become more
  frequent

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Climate Science

• The IPCC reports with 80 certainty that
• Water availability will decrease in the
  American west because of decreased mountain
  snowpack and earlier spring melt
• Cities with a history of heat waves will
  experience more frequent and intense heat waves
  in the future, with potential adverse health
  effects
• Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to the
  interacting effects of development, pollution,
  and climate change

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Climate Science

• The IPCC reports with 80 certainty that (cont.)
• Forests will experience increased stress from
  insect pests, diseases, and increased wildfire
  and
• Africa, Asia, the polar regions, and small
  islands are the most vulnerable regions either
  because of the degree of climate change projected
  (polar regions) or the vulnerability and lack of
  resilience of natural and human systems (Africa,
  Asia, and the small islands).

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Climate Science

• Energy security and climate change are two of
  the great challenges of our time. The United
  States takes these challenges seriously. The
  worlds response will help shape the future of
  the global economy and the condition of our
  environment for future generations. ... We must
  lead the world to produce fewer greenhouse gas
  emissions, and we must do it in a way that does
  not undermine economic growth or prevent nations
  from delivering greater prosperity for their
  people.
• - President George W. Bush, Sept 28, 2007

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Climate Science

• Business Roundtable CEOs agree that there is
  increasing evidence that the earths climate has
  been warming over the last century and that
  greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have
  increased in the atmosphere due to rising
  worldwide emissions of GHGs. We believe that
  steps to address global warming are prudent now
  even while the science continues to evolve. Our
  members have a range of views and preferences
  regarding the policy tools that should be used to
  address the warming threat. However, we agree on
  the need for collective actions that will lead to
  the reduction of GHG emissions on a global basis
  with the goal of slowing increases in GHG
  concentrations in the atmosphere and ultimately
  stabilizing them at levels that will address the
  risk of climate change.
• Testimony of John J. Castellani
• President, Business Roundtable
• before the U.S. Senate Committee
• on Foreign Relations
• January 24, 2008

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Climate Science

• Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA) Does the Chamber of
  Commerce have a position on whether global
  warming is a problem? Do you think it's a problem
  that we should be doing something about, yes or
  no?
• Christopher Wenk, Senior Director, International
  Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce We absolutely
  do, Congressman.
• During testimony before the Energy and Air
  Quality Subcommittee of the House Energy and
  Commerce Committee, March 5, 2008

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Congressional Debate thru 2006

• US federal action to date
• 1992
• President George H.W. Bush supports UN Framework
  Convention on Climate Change
• Senate quickly ratifies UNFCCC
• High-water mark to date

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Congressional Debate thru 2006

• 1992 UNFCCC
• Objective stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system
• UNFCCC greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions voluntary
• Bush (41), Clinton and Bush (43) launched and
  expanded voluntary programs
• GHG emissions continued to rise steadily

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Congressional Debate thru 2006

• 1993 - 2000
• Senate passes Byrd-Hagel resolution opposing
  Kyoto framework, 95 0 (1997)
• Clinton supports 1997 Kyoto Protocol, but offers
  no legislation to meet Kyotos requirements
• In Congress, a No Mans Land between Kyoto and
  do-nothing

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Congressional Debate thru 2006

• 2001 2006
• G.W. Bush opposes Kyoto, drops pledge to cap
  power plant CO2 (2001)
• No Mans Land eliminated
• McCain-Lieberman GHG cap-and-trade bill (2003)
• Senate passes nonbinding Bingaman resolution
  supporting mandatory climate action (2005)

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State Action

• State Climate Action
• Most federal enviro laws based on state and local
  models
• RGGI Northeastern states cap power plant CO2
• Gov. Schwarzenegger greenhouse gas targets
  (2005)
• 1990 levels by 2020
• 80 below 1990 levels by 2050
• California law (2006)
• 1990 levels by 2020

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State Action

• State Climate Action (cont.)
• 36 states have or are developing climate action
  plans
• 23 states are involved in regional initiatives to
  establish GHG cap and trade programs
• - Northeast (CT, DE, MA, ME, MD, NH, NJ, NY,
  RI, VT)
• - West (AZ, CA, MT, NM, OR, UT, WA)
• - Midwest (IL, IA, KS, MI, MN, WI)
• - (FL and HI have GHG emission targets)
• 17 states will adopt CA vehicle GHG standards.
• 26 states plus DC have renewable energy
  requirements.

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Business Developments

• Growing sense in industry that US climate action
  is
• now inevitable and possibly desirable
• Desire for regulatory certainty
• State action
• US public pressure
• Right thing to do
• EU action
• Desire to influence post-2012 treaty negotiations
• Democratic Congress
• Make law under President Bush

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Business Developments

• U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP)
• (www.us-cap.org)
• Companies AIG, Alcoa, Alcan, Boston Scientific,
  BP America, Caterpillar, Chrysler,
  Conoco-Phillips, Deere, Dow, Duke, DuPont,
  Exelon, Ford, FPL, GE, GM, JJ, Marsh, NRG,
  PepsiCo, PGE, PNM, Rio Tinto, Shell, Siemens,
  Xerox
• NGOs Pew Center, Environmental Defense, Natural
  Resources Defense Council, National Wildlife
  Federation, Nature Conservancy, World Resources
  Institute

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Business Developments

• USCAP (cont.)
• CEO partnership
• Calls for reductions of US GHG emissions
• 100 105 of current levels within 5 years
• 90 100 of current levels within 10 years
• 70 90 of current levels within 15 years
• Long term target
• 20 40 of current levels by 2050

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Business Developments

• USCAP (cont.)
• Calls for rapid enactment of legislation,
  including
• Greenhouse gas cap-and-trade
• Fed support for technology RDD deployment
  (especially for carbon capture, sequestration)
• Transportation vehicles, fuels, VMT
• Buildings buildings, appliances, equipment,
  owner incentives

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Many aspects of domestic climate policy
• So far in 110th Congress (2007-2008) there have
  been 160 hearings held and 195 bills introduced.
• The Energy Bill will have profound climate
  implications
• CAFE standards
• Renewable fuel standard
• Efficiency standards

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Greenhouse gas cap and trade bills
• Government sets environmental goal
• Industry decides how to meet it
• Cap placed on total US GHG emissions
• Covered entities submit one emission allowance
  for every ton of GHG emitted
• Covered entities and others may trade allowances
  on open market
• Efficiencies and technological breakthroughs in
  one industry sector benefit entire economy

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Current Federal Policy Debate
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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Six tasks for getting a law
• Pass Senate Environment and Public Works
• Pass full Senate (60 votes)
• Pass House Energy and Commerce
• Pass full House
• House-Senate conference report that can pass each
  house
• Signed by President

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Senate Environment Public Works Committee
  passed the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill by
  11 8 on Dec 5
• Boxer (D-CA) Inhofe (R-OK)
• Lieberman (ID-CT) Warner (R-VA)
• Baucus (D-MT) Alexander (R-TN)
• Cardin (D-MD) Barrasso (R-WY)
• Carper (D-DE) Bond (R-MO)
• Clinton (D-NY) Isakson (R-GA)
• Klobuchar (D-MN) Craig (R-ID)
• Lautenberg (D-NJ) Vitter (R-LA)
• Sanders (I-VT) Voinovich (R-OH)
• Whitehouse (D-RI)

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Full Senate 60 votes needed
• 22 Senators have cosponsored the most aggressive
  climate bills (Sanders-Boxer Kerry-Snowe)
• 26 others have supported Lieberman-McCain or
  Lieberman-Warner
• 10 others voted for 2005 Bingaman resolution
  calling for national mandatory program to reduce
  GHG emissions
• 6 remaining Democrats
• 5 - 10 other Republican prospects

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• House Energy and Commerce Committee
• Chairman John Dingell (D-MI)
• Subcommittee Chairman Rick Boucher (D-VA)
• Reps Waxman (D-CA) and Markey (D-MA)
• Small group of Republicans considered swing
• Very smart productive committee
• Publishing white papers on cap-and-trade design
• Bill expected to be written in Spring 2008

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• House floor
• A bill supported by Reps. Dingell, Boucher,
  Waxman, Markey, and a handful of Republican
  moderates in committee can very likely pass the
  House

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Coincidentally, the Senate and the House Energy
  and Commerce Committee are now expected to engage
  in the same task in the same time frame to
  write the centrist bill that can pass Congress.

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Current Federal Policy Debate

• Presidents signature
• President Bush might not sign bill today
• Uncertain whether he would sign bill in September
• Key question Will President Bush veto a climate
  change bill supported by vulnerable Republicans
  just a few months before the election?

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Crystal Ball

• Usual path to enactment of federal policy
• Scientists identify issue
• Enviros amplify scientists findings
• Elected officials offer legislation
• Time magazine puts issue on cover
• States enact laws
• Congress steps up activity
• Events crystallize public sense of urgency
• Smog alerts, Cuyahoga, Love Canal, Bhopal

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Crystal Ball

• Both Crystal Balls suggests
• Enactment in 2008 plausible
• If not by 2008, enactment by 2010 highly likely

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For More Information

• www.pewclimate.org