RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCE Inventory, Impacts, and Regulation presentation by Robert M. Lewis, A

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RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCEInventory,
Impacts, and Regulationpresentation byRobert
M. Lewis, AICP, PrincipalDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

• Lawrence City Commission
• Study Session
• January 18, 2006

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THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS

• Database of the physical inventory of retailing.
• Contract with city
• Potential impact of three proposed retail
  centers.
• Northgate
• Bauer Farm
• Mercato Added contract with city
• Development code recommendations.
• Subcontract with Stinson Morrison Hecker

Same contract with city
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INVENTORY Methodology

• Define retail geographic concentrations (city
  DSI).
• Field survey (primarily by city staff)
• Compilation, verification, aggregation (DSI)
• Peer city comparisons (DSI)
• Summary report (DSI)
• Informative intent non-judgmental

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INVENTORY Retail Concentrations

• 10 geographic areas plus miscellaneous.

• West 6th Street
• Hillcrest Shopping Center
• Orchard Corners
• Clinton Parkway
• East 23rd St.

• West 6th Monterey Way
• West 6th Wakarusa
• South Iowa Street
• West 23rd Street
• Downtown

• Focus on typical retail locations.
• Shopping Centers
• First Floors Second if occupied
• Record of occupancy regardless of use or zoning.
• Record of occupancy if retail land use or zoning.

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INVENTORY Field Survey

• DSI designed a field recording form.
• DSI tested the field work.
• DSI trained city staff.
• Staff completed field work.
• Staff created database spreadsheet and sent to
  DSI.

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INVENTORY Field Survey Form
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INVENTORY Compilation, Verification, Aggregation

• Checked against previous Lawrence database.
• Checked against telephone book and Internet.
• Checked against Chamber of Commerce data.
• Checked against Grubb Ellis local data.
• Selected telephone calls to retailers.
• Determined NAICS of each entry (retail or not).
• Aggregated by geography NAICS.

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INVENTORY NAICS Codes
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SUMMARY DATA Square Feet by NAICS
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SUMMARY DATA Establishments by NAICS
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SUMMARY DATA Average Sq. Ft. by NAICS
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SUMMARY DATA Dining Establishments
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SUMMARY DATA Square Feet by Geography
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SUMMARY DATA Percent of Sq. Ft. by Geography
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Distribution of Space City of Lawrence
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Distribution of Space West 6th Monterey Way
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Distribution of Space West 6th Wakarusa
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Distribution of Space South Iowa Street
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Distribution of Space West 23rd Street
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Distribution of Space Downtown
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Distribution of Space West 6th Street
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Distribution of Space Hillcrest Shopping Center
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Distribution of Space Orchard Corners
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Distribution of Space Clinton Parkway
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Distribution of Space East 23rd Street
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Distribution of Space Miscellaneous Locations
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PEER CITIES
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PEER CITIES Population, 2004
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PEER CITIES Retail Sales to EBI
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PEER CITIES Retail Sales Pull Factors
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POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL
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POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAILNorthgate
269,300 square feet

• If all remains vacant (or creates equal
  vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9
  to 7.7.
• If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate
  decreases from 3.9 to 3.8.
• Current square feet to population in Lawrence
  78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. 82,500 population).
• To absorb 269,300 square feet requires 3,430 more
  residents.
• Horizon 2020 population for 2010 6,500 to 16,500
  additional residents.

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POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAILBauer Farm
118,800 square feet

• If all remains vacant (or creates equal
  vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9
  to 5.6.
• If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate
  decreases from 3.9 to 3.8.
• Current square feet to population in Lawrence
  78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. 82,500 population).
• To absorb 118,800 square feet requires 1,515 more
  residents.
• Horizon 2020 population for 2010 6,500 to 16,500
  additional residents.

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POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAILMercato 600,000
square feet

• If all remains vacant (or creates equal
  vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9
  to 11.9.
• If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate
  decreases from 3.9 to 3.5.
• Current square feet to population in Lawrence
  78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. 82,500 population).
• To absorb 600,000 square feet requires 7,650 more
  residents.
• Horizon 2020 population for 2010 6,500 to 16,500
  additional residents.

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POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAILAll Three
988,100 square feet

• If all remains vacant (or creates equal
  vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9
  to 16.3.
• If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate
  decreases from 3.9 to 3.3.
• Current square feet to population in Lawrence
  78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. 82,500 population).
• To absorb 988,100 square feet requires 12,600
  more residents.
• Horizon 2020 population for 2010 6,500 to 16,500
  additional residents.

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PEER CITY COMPARISONS

• Selected cities similar to Lawrence.
• Midwest or Great Plains
• Cities that dominate their counties
• Stand alone counties (little surrounding
  development)
• Major university or similar institution
• Used Survey of Buying Power for consistent
  measures.
• Key purpose Identify gaps in supply or
  demand.