National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

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National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

• 2004 Update
• 7th Annual Southern and Caribbean Regional
  Meeting
• November 16, 2004

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NCCOS Role in NOS NOAA

• To provide a focus in NOAA for coastal ocean
  science activities
• Conduct or sponsor coastal ocean science research
• Provide high quality technical expertise to NOAA
  on integrating sound science with policy
  development and implementation
• Provide unbiased scientific recommendations to
  policy makers

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NCCOS EXPERTISE
HML Human/Environmental Health Linkages
CCMA Monitoring Assessment
CCEHBR Molecular Processes and Organism Health
CCFHR Fisheries Habitat Health
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HAB Forecasting

• HABs in the Gulf of Mexico are
• caused by Karenia brevis.
• Responsible for shellfish closures, fish kills,
  dolphin and manatee deaths, and respiratory
  distress in people.
• NOAA has issued advisory bulletins since 1999.
• Identify HABs before they are reported at the
  shore
• Guide sampling and monitoring efforts.
• Need for HAB information on a more consistent
  basis

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HAB Forecasting

• Notifies managers of the location, extent, and
  potential for development or movement of HABs in
  the Gulf of Mexico.
• Gather data from satellites, buoy, and land-based
  stations
• Determine current and future location and
  intensity of a HAB potential impacts on
  humans, marine mammals, and fish.
• Issue HAB Bulletin to managers in the Gulf of
  Mexico.
• Provides daily HAB monitoring and semi-weekly to
  daily forecasts.
• Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and
  Services, Florida Fish Wildlife Research
  Institute, the Florida Dept. of Ag., the Mote
  Marine Lab and the NOAA FKNMS.

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Lionfish Invasion Along Southeast United States
Continental Shelf

• Invasion discovered summer 2001 - adults
  confirmed from NC, GA, east coast of FL, and
  Bermuda (80-250 ft.)
• Juveniles collected off New York
• Aquarium trade proposed for method of
  introduction
• Winter temperature limiting northern and onshore
  distribution of adults

Whitfield et al. (2002) MEPS
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Predicted distribution 2002-2003

• Determined thermal tolerances in laboratory (10
  oC Critical Lethal Minimum - CLMin)
• Combined CLMin with bottom temperature data to
  forecast potential distribution
• Observed adult distribution falls within
  predicted range

Kimball et al. (in review) MEPS In collaboration
with North Carolina State University
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Lionfish Integrated Assessment - 2003

• Summarize current state of knowledge
• Identify potential effects of invasion and make
  predictions
• Assess management and policy related to lionfish
• Address general issues related to marine fish
  invaders

Hare and Whitfield (2003)
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Lionfish Integrated Assessment Predictions
Observations as of Fall 2001

• Population will continue to grow
• Effects on the marine ecosystem will become more
  noticeable
• There will be incidents of lionfish envenomations
  of divers and/or fishers

Observations as of Fall 2003
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Management Options Attempt eradication Potential
outcomes

• Cost would be high, and chance of success very
  low because of range and depth
• Usefulness of bounty limited by availability in
  the aquarium trade and venomous nature of fish

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Management Options Increase outreach and
education efforts Potential outcomes

• Promote awareness of venomous species to public
  and health care providers
• Use lionfish to exemplify issue of marine
  introductions
• Encourage reports of lionfish and other invasive
  fish for additional distributional data

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Management Options Conduct economic analysis of
cost of marine invasive species and spending on
issue Potential outcomes

• Provide foundation for understanding economic
  cost of marine invasive species
• Contribute to future discussions regarding
  support for marine invasive species efforts
  (including regulations)

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Management Options Consider restrictions on
importation of live marine animals from outside
U.S. Potential outcomes

• Decrease likelihood of future introductions
• Import restrictions would increase potential for
  culture/collection of native fishes
• Develop mechanism for recovery costs of
  eradication efforts

snakehead
Caulerpa
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Management Options Establish regional bodies to
address marine invasive species problem Potential
outcomes
Average currents and planktonic transport envelops

• Prevent future invasions in the U.S. from
  introductions in non-U.S. waters
• Prevent future invasions into other countries
  from introductions in U.S. waters

from Roberts et al. (1997) Science
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Land Use South Atlantic Blight

• How do changes in land-use and management
  patterns, population growth, habitat quality, and
  other environmental factors impact coastal ocean
  resources?
• Urbanization and Southeastern Estuarine Systems
• Define, measure and model the impacts of
  urbanization on high-salinity coastal estuaries
• Land Use - Coastal Ecosystem Study (LU-CES)
• Improve understanding of the population and
  socioeconomic trends that characterize the
  Southeastern coast, and how these trends affect
  our coastal ecosystems

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Habitat Recovery Modeling

• Habitat recovery models support NOAAs damage
  assessment settlements
• Injury recovery modeling for seagrass injuries
  has returned over 500,000 to the FKNMS.
• Modeling based on seagrass research
• Efforts expanded to corals, marsh, and rocky
  intertidal, meeting needs of NMFS/Habitat
  Conservation Office, ONMS, and ORR
• Injury models applied
• to ORR HAZMAT situations

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Microbial Source Tracking

• Determine the source of fecal bacteria - by their
  antibiotic resistance pattern, electrophoresis,
  ribotying and phage type.
• We participated as the only federal lab in an
  inter-laboratory calibration and validation of
  these methods.
• We conduct workshops and cross-training of state
  laboratory personnel, transferring this
  technology to improve state water quality
  management.

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Investigating Dolphin Mortality

• 5 mass mortalities of bottlenose dolphins in the
  N. Gulf of Mexico since 1990.
• Red tide suspected, but correlation weak.
• Between 11 March -13 April 2004, 107 bottlenose
  dolphins stranded in the Panhandle of Florida.
• High levels of brevetoxins in dolphin stomachs
  and in fish.
• Research establishing exposure levels to
  understand why dolphins in the northern GOM
  appear more susceptible to red tide than those in
  SW Florida.

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Eutrophication Forecasting

• Can we predict eutrophication based on
  precipitation?
• Derive chl from SeaWIFs imagery
• Compare to mean precipitation estimates
• Evaluate influence of land-based nutrient sources
  on phytoplankton growth in Gulf of Mexico.
• Response of coastal systems to changes in natural
  forcing provides a benchmark for evaluating
  anthropogenic impacts
• Determine extent to which management-related
  nutrient reductions will lead to improvements in
  coastal ecosystem health and sustainability.

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NCCOS ON-SITE PARTNERS
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SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION

• 5 Stressors Pollution, Invasive Species,Land and
  Resource Use, Extreme Events, and Climate Change
• 4 Ecosystems Estuaries (including NERRS),
  National Marine Sanctuaries, Coral Reef
  Ecosystems, and Coastal Ocean.

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SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION (cont.)
Establish Integrated Assessments as Standard
Product Line - Disciplined approach to
problem analysis - Strategic Goal
1--place-based - Specialty topics (e.g.,
lionfish)
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INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS
Examples of Research
Process
Assess Baseline Conditions
Characterization
Bioindicators, monitoring
Assess Stressors On Ecosystem
Predict Ecosystem Health With No Management
Action
Ecological forecasting
Ecological forecasting alt. mgmt.actions (e.g.,
restoration)
Predict Ecosystem Health With Different
Management Actions
Evaluate Success Of Management Actions
Analytical report
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SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION (cont.)
Establish Ecological Forecasts as Another
Standard Product Line - Integral part of
Integrated Assessments - Foundation for
management decision-making - Parallelism
with NOAAs Weather Forecasting Product
Line
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ECOLOGICAL FORECASTS
Areal Extent of Hypoxia in Gulf of Mexico
Pink Shrimp Harvest for North Carolina Sea
Nettle Distribution in Chesapeake Bay
Shellfish Bed Closures After Rainfall Events
MSX and Dermo Incidence in Oysters in Chesapeake
Bay More Advanced Warning of Coral Bleaching
Trends of Contaminant Concentrations in
Sediments HAB Bulletins
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SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION (cont.)

• Integrate Human Dimensions with Natural Sciences
• Society defines desired uses of environment
• Societal uses dictate healthy
• Incorporation of human dimension element into
  NCCOS research (e.g., Restoration manual)

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Scientific Plans Reports Topical
National Research Needs

• Non-Point Source Pollution
• Sanctuaries
• Marine Mammals
• Harmful Algal Blooms
• Restoration
• Coral

NCCOS Research Needs
Topical Spending Plans
Topical Accomplishment Reports
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SCIENCE SUCCESSES CCEHBR

• Baseline assessments in Protected Areas
• sediment quality and benthic health
• Microbial source tracking techniques
  transferred to state water quality managers
• technique development, validation, and
  training
• HAB event response
• defining causes of marine mammal mortalities

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Scientific Successes CSCOR
GLOBEC Models support managers in
estimating salmon returns MERHAB New
technology allows cost-effective, sensitive, and
rapid detection of HABs GOMEX Integrated
assessment and action plan to address Gulf
hypoxia
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SCIENCE SUCCESSES CCFHR
Lionfish Integrated Assessment Risk
assessment for introduced species becoming
invasive Restoration Monitoring Guidance
Document Heavily partnered effort to meet
legislative requirement resulting in high
public/private interest/application Habitat
Recovery Modeling Habitat recovery models
that support NOAAs damage assessment
settlements (viz. seagrass, corals, marsh, and
rocky inter-tidal habitats)
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Lionfish Integrated Assessment Health Risks

• Spines are venomous, but toxin is not fatal
• Public and health care providers need to be made
  aware of another venomous species in the western
  Atlantic
• Risk limited by offshore distribution, but
  juveniles are inshore and timing of venom
  development is unknown

photo courtesy of Stephen P. Vives
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NCCOS OVERARCHING OPERATING PRINCIPLES

• To deliver high quality science
• To conduct relevant and timely research
• To transfer technology, tools knowledge
• To conduct anticipatory research
• To provide optimal work environment for employees