A Roadmap for Improving Aviation Weather in the 21st Century National Business Aviation Association,

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A Roadmap for Improving Aviation Weather in the
21st CenturyNational Business Aviation
Association, Inc.Orlando, FloridaOctober 7, 2003

• Sponsored by the Office of the Federal
  Coordinator for Meteorological Services and
  Supporting Research (OFCM)
• Facilitator
• Mary M. Cairns

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Overview

• Background
• National Aviation Weather Program
• Mid-Course Assessment - The Report
• Panel Presentations
• Discussion
• Summary

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Weather Impacts on the NAS

• Safety
• Weather is a major contributing factor to
  aviation accidents
• about 25 of all aviation accidents
• about 33 of all fatal commercial carrier
  accidents
• about 25 of all fatal general aviation accidents
• Efficiency
• Good weather facilitates the NAS
• Marginal weather debilitates the NAS
• Poor weather strangulates the NAS

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OFCM Mission

• To ensure the effective use of federal
• meteorological resources by leading the
• systematic coordination of operational
• weather requirements, services, and
• supporting research among the federal
• agencies

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Coordinating Infrastructure
Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and
Supporting Research (FCMSSR)
Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Program Councils
Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological
Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR)
National Space Weather Program
National Aviation Weather Program
Environmental Services, Operations, and Research
Needs
Operational Processing Centers
Environmental Information Systems and
Communications
Working Group for Environmental Support to
Homeland Security
Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services
Integrated Observing Systems
Cooperative Research
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Historical Background

• 1995 National Research Council Report Aviation
  Weather Services - A Call for Federal Leadership
  and Action
• FAA identified as lead agency
• 1997 Report of the White House Commission on
  Aviation Safety and Security called for an 80
  reduction in the rate of fatal aviation accidents
  by the year 2007
• Reiterated in FAA Flight Plan 2004-2008

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OFCMs Actions

• 1997 National Aviation Weather Program Strategic
  Plan
• 1999 National Aviation Weather Initiatives (and
  subsequent updates)
• 2000 Aviation Weather User Forum
• Product development
• Product dissemination
• Cockpit displays
• Training
• Decision support systems/capabilities
• 2001 National Aviation Weather Initiatives Final
  Baseline Tier 3/4 Report (and subsequent updates,
  e.g., 2003)
• 2002 Aviation Weather Training Report
• 2003 National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course
  Assessment

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National Aviation Weather ProgramMid-Course
Assessment The Report
Accident Reduction Trends Confirm Value of
Coordinated RD Programs
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Report Findings

• Sustaining risk reduction success in general
  aviation
• Reducing accident trends for smaller commercial
  carriers
• Reducing risk from turbulence and convection
  hazards
• Reducing risk from high density altitude
• Risk reduction for other weather factors
• Sustaining RD to continue improving aviation
  safety

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Panel Focus

• Where have we been, Where are we now, and Where
  are we going?
• What products have made a significant difference
  in the reduction of weather-related accidents to
  date?
• What current and future products and programs
  could make a significant improvement in safety
  toward the 2007 goal and beyond?

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Panel

• Moderator Ms. Mary M. Cairns, OFCM, Senior Staff
• Panelists
• Mr. David Whatley, FAA, Director, Aerospace
  Weather Policy and Standards Staff
• Mr. Tom Fahey, Northwest Airlines, Manager,
  Meteorology
• Mr. Mark Andrews, NWS, Chief, Aviation Service
  Branch
• Col. Neil Wyse, USAF, Deputy for Federal
  Programs, Directorate of Weather

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Current Icing Potential (CIP)

• Agencies FAA, NWS
• Description Improved icing product
• User Need
• National Aviation Weather Initiatives
• GA Weather JSIT
• FAA In-flight Aircraft Icing Plan
• Benefits Reduced accidents/fatalities
• Lessons Learned Need for user involvement

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Future

• Program CIP Severity
• Agencies FAA, NWS in AWTT process
• Expected Benefit Improvement of usefulness of
  the product
• Expected Challenges Obtaining enough PIREPs for
  verification, especially SLD

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Northwest Airlines (NWA) Turbulence Plot (TP)
System

• What An air carrier, integrated process
  addressing wx obstacles during preflight planning
  en route operations
• How Data ingest and production, distribution,
  display application of tailored weather
  information
• Who Dispatchers Meteorologists Flight
  Attendants Pilots
• Why/User Need Developed to address FAAs Federal
  Air Regulations internal NWA business model
• Benefits Reduced en route wx hazard encounters
  affecting Flight Attendants Passengers Aircraft
• Training Initial recurrent training for all
  active participants
• Challenges Quantifying value of safety
  efficiency

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Existing NWA Program CDM (Collaborative Decision
Making)

• What NAS Users Mgrs effort to improve NAS
  efficiency
• How NAS data shared between Govt Industry via
  common displays to facilitate agreement on NAS
  management
• Who Govt Industry NAS users Mgrs and
  Research Community
• Why/User Need Increase predictability Capacity
  of the NAS
• Benefits/Goal Reduced air traffic delays,
  diversions cancellations

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New NWA Effort CDM Wx Applications

• Concept Integrate Wx Info Management Air
  Traffic Management processes to
• Provide Improved Aviation Weather Information
• Enhance Ability of Decision Makers to Use the
  Information
• Challenges to Implement Resources

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NOAAs Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering
towards improved aviation servicesPast and
current achievements

• Improved processes
• Aviation Weather Technology Transfer process
• Canadian participation in Collaborative
  Convective Forecast Product
• Multi-governmental agency and international
  participation in development of new aviation
  training courses
• Better integration of FAA/NASA research into NOAA
  operational products
• Improved aviation forecast tools
• Aviation forecast preparation system released
  July 2003
• Increased use of time proven forecast techniques
• Improved verification systems

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NOAAs Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering
towards improved aviation servicesFuture work

• Complete development and use of Cradle to Grave
  aviation product process
• Multi-agency Joint Planning Office effort
• Better advance warning of new and improved
  forecast products to dissemination system
  builders
• Incorporate end-user feedback directly into the
  design of new products from the very start
  (example Graphical Area Forecast)
• Enhanced DoD and NOAA partnerships
• Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts
• 4-dimensional aviation database
• Increased level of automation
• Take advantage of FAAs Aviation Weather Research
  Program results to provide gridded aviation
  parameter forecasts
• Increased emphasis on graphical products

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DOD Past and Present

• Who USN
• Program NWP - NOGAPS
• What Robust atmospheric data assimilation and
  forecast model
• Increased resolution better representation of
  jet stream level winds
• Upgraded data assimilation system
• User need Improved support for aviation
  forecasts
• Benefit Overall improvement in global modeling
  for aviation forecasts.
• Training Operational training courses

• Who USAF
• Program Cloud Depiction and Forecast System
  (CDFS) II
• What Fine-scale 3-D depiction of cloud height,
  amt, and type derived from geostationary and
  polar orbiting weather satellite sensor data.
  Produces forecasts to 12h.
• User need Improved cloud cover information, on a
  global scale.
• Benefit More accurate cloud depiction and
  forecasts for mission completion. Also benefits
  other agencies (e.g., USN).
• Training Operational training courses

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DoD Future

• Who DoD, NOAA, NASA Multi-agency Partnerships
• What Environmental Satellite Program
• GOES-R (NASA/NOAA)
• NPP NPOESS PREP PROGRAM (NASA)
• NPOESS (DoD/NOAA/NASA)
• -- RESEARCH AND CLIMO PATHFINDERS
• -- EOS --- Terra and Aqua (NASA)
• Benefits Improved observations for atmospheric
  soundings, data assimilation, volcanic ash
  (aerosols)
• Increased resolutionImproved model initiation
• Improved timeliness
• Who DoD/Air Force
• What BENVINT (Battlespace ENVironmental
  INTellegence)
• Test Program for UAV Weather Sensor
• Benefits Weather obs from Data Denied and Data
  Sparse Regions
• Front line data/obs/reduced risk
• Inproved weather intel to decision makers
• Application to large data void areasOceans/Ranges
  

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Open Discussion
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Summary

• NAWP Assessment Report should help guide
  development and plans to continue to improve
  safety and efficiency in the NAS
• FAA should continue to lead the effort towards
  the Strategic Plan goal in 2007 and beyond
• Aviation community should continue to work
  closely together
• Much work still needs to be doneFAA, other
  federal agencies, industry, university, and
  private organizations work on identifying and
  specifying the gaps

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Further Information

• Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
• 8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500
• Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
• [phone]
• Website www.ofcm.gov