NextGen and the Weather Information Database

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NextGen and the Weather Information Database

• March 23, 2009
• Jason Tuell
• Chief, Science Plans Branch
• Office of Science and Technology

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Overview

• NextGen 101
• What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB)
  and the Single Authoritative Source
• Why NOAA?
• The roadmap ahead
• Broader benefits to NOAA
• Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube
• Summary

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NextGen 101
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NextGen 101

• Weather accounts for 70 of all air traffic
  delays within the U.S. National Airspace System
  (NAS)
• The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has
  determined two thirds of this is preventable
  with better weather information
• "A key finding, based on an analysis of several
  2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as
  two-thirds of the weather related delay is
  potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering
  and Development Advisory Committee Report of
  the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group
  Oct3, 2007

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NextGen 101

• The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to
  the U.S. economy was as much as 41 billion for
  2007.
• Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating
  costs by 19 billion.
• Delays cost passengers time worth up to 12
  billion.
• Indirect costs of delay to other industries
  added roughly 10 billion to the total burden.
• Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again Congressional
  Joint Economic Committee May 2008

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NextGen 101

• NextGen goals are not achievable without
  improving integration of weather information into
  decision support systems
• NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift)
  is focused on
• Providing a multiple user common weather picture
• Consistent and reliable weather information
• An improved weather information data storage
  approach containing observation and forecast data
  (i.e., the WIDB or the 4 Dimensional Weather
  Cube enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

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NextGen 101Key Themes

• An integrated and nationally consistent common
  weather picture for observation, analysis, and
  forecast data available to all system users
• Direct integration of weather information into
  operational decision making processes

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NextGen 101Key Themes

• A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is
  envisioned
• Network Enabled
• An information network that makes information
  available, securable, and usable in real time
• Information may be pushed to known users and is
  available to be pulled by others
• Weather information sharing is two-way
• Virtual repository with no single physical
  database or computer
• Conceptually unified source distributed among
  multiple physical locations and suppliers, of
  which NOAA is the leading data supplier

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NextGen Weather Basics
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What is the WIDB?

• The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data
  Cube) will contain
• Continuously updated weather observations
  (surface to low earth orbit, including space
  weather and ocean parameters)
• High resolution (space and time) analysis and
  forecast information (conventional weather
  parameters from numerical models)
• Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)
• Turbulence
• Icing
• Convection
• Ceiling and visibility
• Winds and Temperature
• The WIDB of the future will contain all
  weather data, not just aviation
  parameters.

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What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative
Source?

• The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS)
• Is only a portion of the WIDB
• Provides a common weather picture for National
  Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA,
  etc.)
• Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air
  Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
• Is formed by merger of model data, automated
  gridded algorithms, climatology and
  observational data, and meteorologist input/data
  manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
• Sticky issues
• FAA SAS definition differs internally
• Who will own the SAS?
• Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?

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The WIDBA Conceptual Model
Observations
Forecasting
Numerical Modeling Systems
Satellites
Network Enabled Operations
Statistical Forecasting Systems
NWS Forecaster

Data Integration
Radars
WIDB
Aircraft
4D Wx SAS
Automated Forecast Systems
Surface
Forecast Integration
Soundings
Grids
Custom Graphic Generators
Decision Support Systems
Custom Alphanumeric Generators
Integration into User Decisions
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Why NOAA?
Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

• NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the
  Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather
  Information Services as this responsibility is
  core to NOAAs mission, and we are confident
  that the IWP will enable us to better align
  NOAAs weather portfolio with NextGen
• Mary Glackin April 7, 2008

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Why NOAA?

• NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator
  of this data cube based on its
• Extensive experience with data ingest and
  assimilation
• Ownership of major observation and modeling
  capabilities
• Experienced meteorological workforce
• Legislative mandate to provide weather to the
  FAA
• Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and
  NDFD

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The Roadmap Ahead

• Initial Operational Capability (2013)
• Integrated environmental information sources
• Meteorologist oversight of gridded data
• Common data standards and protocols
• Initial integration of diverse weather elements
  into decision support tools
• Intermediate Capability (2016)
• Improved modeling and science enables higher
  resolution more accurate information
• Full Network compatibility of environmental
  information
• Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic
  Management Systems
• Full Operational Capability (2022)
• All NextGen requirements met and benefits
  achieved
• High resolution, nested scale forecasts available
  for all elements
• Full network connectivity ensures consistent
  information use across service areas and user
  groups

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4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

• Aviation driven consistency and accuracy
  requirements will improve all NWS services
• Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
• More accurate public forecasts because of
  aviation driven high resolution modeling
  requirements
• Improved severe weather lead times because of
  aviation driven convective forecasts
• Implements Warn on Forecast technologies

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4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

• Improved access to all NWS products and services
  via the cube
• Supports automated decision assistance tools for
  other agencies and entities beyond FAA
• IT and Data Management enhancements
• Establish a central repository and access for
  critical NWS products and services beyond
  aviation
• Support GEOSS requirements
• Enhances continuity of operations
• Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a
  system of systems linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD,
  CCS and NEXRAD

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Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx
Data Cube

• Consistency
• Convective Modeling Warn on Forecast
• Model Enhancements and Improvements
• System of Systems
• Decision Support Services

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The Consistency Issue

• The FAA requirements consider consistency just as
  important as accuracy
• Consistency Challenges
• Spatial
• Internal
• Representativeness

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Convective Modeling

• Aviation requirements are demanding higher
  resolution models
• Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4
  hours) is key
• Resolution requirements based on
• Terminal within 100km radius of an airport, aka
  Super Density Operations (SDO)
• Enroute within the National Airspace System
  (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
• Global outside the NAS
• Examples of resolution requirements are detailed
  on the next slide. These requirements need
  additional user validation and should not be
  considered final

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Model Enhancements and Improvements
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Summary

• NextGen will require significant changes in the
  way weather information is produced
• The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather
  information will be assimilated into decision
  support tools and the decision making process
• NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary
  Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D
  Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
• Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams
  are working all the issues involved with the cube
• The FAA is leading the Integration effort and
  this is just getting started

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Summary

• There are many existing initiatives that will be
  leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the
  initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS
• The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and
  the NWS beyond aviation
• There are many important science issues,
  including consistency, model resolution,
  observation strategies, and verification which
  must be addressed as we move toward a
  comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube