Sea Shore Flow Optimizing Enlisted Career Paths

1
Sea Shore FlowOptimizing Enlisted Career Paths
NCA Symposium Information Brief
CDR Craig Schauppner, USN Current Manpower
Allocation Branch/ Operations Analysis Section
(N122X) July 2008
2
Sea Shore FlowDesired Outcomes under a New Lens
Away from sea-to-shore billet ratios

• Impact to the Sailor
• Predictable career path
• Increased meaningful work
• Improved geographic stability
• Incentives for more time at sea (gt 60 months)
• Impact to the Navy
• Manning at right experience level
• Right mix of work within fleet concentration
  areas
• Force structure determines manpower requirements

to managing the whole community
Sea Tour lengths determined by Fleet
requirements and community behavior
30 year Career
SSF Provides Best Balance of Sea and Shore Duty
Throughout a Sailors Career
3
Evolution of Sea Shore FlowNone Close Enough
Optimal
Seavey Shorevey
Sea Shore Rotation
Sea Shore Flow
FLETCHER CLASS (DD-445) 900 Ship Navy 775K
Personnel Policy 1957 1974 Sailors remained
at sea indefinitely and rolled ashore based on
time in grade and shore billet availability Catal
yst Centralized Distribution -Previous
decentralized system caused large scale bottle
necks in moving inventory across the Navy -
First computer based fair share personnel
assignment system - Sea Survey and Shore Survey
rotation program
ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS (DDG-51) 600 Ship Navy 600K
Personnel Policy 1974 2008 Sailors sea tour
length determined by a ratio of sea billets to
shore billets for each particular rating and
paygrade Catalyst All Volunteer Force - Fixed
PRD required to calculate inventory
projections - Predictable sea tour lengths needed
to recruit and retain volunteer Sailors -
Sea-shore billet ratio provided a close enough
approximation for tour lengths
ZUMWALT CLASS (DDG-1000) 313 Ship Navy 322K
Personnel Policy 2008 20XX Sailors sea tour
length determined by an optimal career path for
each enlisted community Catalyst Sea-Centric
Force - Reduced shore billet structure driven by
fiscal constraints - SSR billet ratio metric
lacks fidelity needed to manage a sea-centric
force - SSF provides optimal sea tour lengths
4
Sea Shore FlowOptimizing Enlisted Career Paths
30 year LOS Profile
f (E, C, G, T)
Billets Aligned to Sea Tours
f (E, C, G, T) dt

Billets Aligned to Sea Tours
E - EPA C - Continuation Rate G - Gain
Distribution T - Time n - Sea Tour Index
Sea Tour 1, Sea Tour 2, - Sea Tour n
start month - Sea Tour n end month
- User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Length
Objective Function 1 Minimize Total Time at Sea
Objective Function 2 Minimize Deviation from
User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths
Constraint Billets Aligned to Sea Tours
Sea EPA
5
Sea Shore FlowLeaky Bucket Analogy
Sea Shore Flow Model Projects flow from
sea to shore, using - EPA Length of Service
Spread - Continuation Rates - Gain
Distributions Flow projection used to set tour
lengths to sustain 100 manning.
Accessions
Continuation Rate
Flow Rate ? EPA
Sea Tour 1
Shore Tour 1
Sea Tour 2
Attrition Rate
4
Improve SSF by Improving Retention or Increasing
Accessions
6
Sea Shore FlowWhat We Have Learned

• Sea Shore Rotation (SSR), the ratio of sea
  billets to shore billets by paygrade, is not an
  accurate metric for determining sea tour lengths
  in a sea-centric Navy
• Sea Shore Flow (SSF), the optimal career path for
  an enlisted community, determines sea tour
  lengths based on a ratings entire billet
  structure (EPA), gain distribution, and
  continuation/advancement rates
• The Navy is not as sea-intensive as indicated by
  SSR
• Can improve FIT by shortening some sea tour
  lengths

7
Sea Shore FlowObtaining Desired FIT
GM Sea Shore Rotation Solution
GM Sea Shore Flow Solution
Optimal Sea Shore Flow Driven by Fleet
Requirements
8
Sea Shore FlowWhat We Have Done

• Received Enlisted Community Managers Inputs
• Identified Sea-Intensive Ratings
• Validated SDIP Candidate Ratings
• Validated FC(AEGIS) Action Group Billet Strategy
• Determined Current Feasibility for Geographic
  Stability
• Identified/Quantified Shore Billet
  Shortages/Excesses
• Developed POM-10 Sea Shore Flow Guidance
• Developed POM-10 Geographic Stability Guidance
• Developed POM-10 Community Health Matrix
• Revised Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Paths
  Based on Detailers and Enlisted Community
  Managers Feedback
• Drafted Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Path
  NAVADMIN

9
Shore Intensive vs. Sea Intensive
Sea Intensive
Shore Intensive
Sea Centric
Excess Shore Billets
Military Essential?
Excess Shore Billets
Shore Billets Shortfalls
Shore Billets Shortfall
Requires 4,240 Shore Billets aligned to Sea
Intensive Ratings
Shore Intensive 86,000 Sailors
Sea Centric 118,000 Sailors
Sea Intensive 68,000 Sailors
Total EPA
10
Sea Tour Length ComparisonSea Shore Flow vs Sea
Shore Rotation
SSF vs. SSR based on Rating Count
Impact to the Sailor - Predictable career path
- Increased meaningful work - Improved
geographic stability - Incentives for more time
at sea (gt 60 mos) Impact to the Navy - Manning
at right experience level - Right mix of work
within fleet concentration areas - Force
structure determines manpower requirements
SSF vs. SSR based on Billet Count
Most Sailors will see No Change or a Decrease in
Sea Tour Lengths
11
Sea Shore Flow Sea Tour Lengths
12
Sea Shore Flow Sea Tour Lengths
13
Sea Shore Flow Communication Plan
21-23 July
July
Nov/Dec
July - Aug
Announcement
Drumbeat
NPC confirms logistics ready

• Announcement Strategy
• NC symposium
• (21-23 July)

P4
NAVADMIN
NC email
Confirmation of Fleet concurrence
AnchorLines
NC email
Focus on effecting one-on-one communication
between COC and Sailors
14
Sea Shore Flow POAM
15
Back Up Slides
16
SSF PlanGunners Mate
Decreasing Sea Tour Lengths Improves FIT and QOL
17
SSF PlanFire Controlman
Sea Tour Lengths Determined by Career Path
not Paygrade
Sailors in sea-intensive communities can benefit
from SDIP
18
Sea Shore FlowCG Division USS Hopper
Gunners Mate First Sea Tour decreases from 60 to
42 months - Trades off Fill for FIT while
improving Sailors QOL Second Sea Tour length no
longer determined by Sailors paygrade - Gives
Sailors predictable career paths improving life
work balance Fire Controlman can choose to extend
at sea for extra pay (SDIP) - Rewards Sailors
for self selecting additional time at sea
Sea Shore Flow Provides Sailors More
Predictability and More Options Sea Shore Flow
Provides the Navy with Better FIT