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Navy NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting

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Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting strategy ... Workshop to review and recommend standardized data exchange formats and standards ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Navy NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting


1
Navy NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and
Forecasting
  • Marie Colton
  • National Ocean Service
  • 2 October 2006

2
Outline
  • Goals and Objectives
  • Purpose
  • Issue
  • Background
  • Intersecting Issues
  • Summary
  • Recommendations

3
Overarching Goals and Objectives
  • Goal A global perspective on oceans and coasts
    through shared development and implementation of
    a national capability in operational ocean and
    coastal modeling and forecasting
  • Objectives
  • Coordination of internal, external, and
    interagency communications and agreements
  • Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal
    modeling and forecasting strategy
  • Identification of and action along Navy/NOAA
    intersections

4
Purpose
  • Explicit definition of Navy and NOAA commitments
    for partnership in community modeling and
    forecasting
  • Status of activities to identify actions and
    intersections
  • Agency and joint strategies and way forward
  • Solicit direct agency feedback to ensure
    continuity of effort and visibility
  • NOAA AAs of cognizant offices
  • Navy CNO/CNMOC (McGee), Oceanographer, SPAWAR,
    CNR ONR, NRL

5
Issue
  • Ocean/Coastal Community Modeling Requirements
    Definition Navy/NOAA
  • Missions remain separate
  • Requirement Overlaps identified for effectiveness
  • Common approaches developed
  • Articulate and align capabilities to increase
    technical support for Navy and NOAA ocean/coastal
    forecasting
  • Develop system of consistent compatible ocean
    models that pass information and scale from
    global to regional to very local
  • Specific projects to quickly advance cooperation
    and coordination process

6
Issue
  • Who is involved
  • 4 NOAA Line Offices (NESDIS, NOS, NWS/NCEP, OAR)
  • 5 Navy Offices (CNMOC, FNMOC, NAVO, ONR, NRL)
  • What is involved
  • Ocean Modeling Action Plan (NOAA SAB)
  • Tri-Agency Atmospheric Modeling Partnership
    (National Unified Operational Prediction
    Capability)
  • IOOS Development Plan
  • Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
  • NOAA Environmental Modeling Program

7
Background
  • Navy AMOP Meetings
  • September 2005 (Naval Observatory), February 2006
    (Pearl Harbor), September 2006 (Stennis Space
    Center)
  • March 29, 2006 Joint Planning Session, NOAA
    Headquarters, Silver Spring
  • June 13-14, 2006 Joint Workshop, Stennis Space
    Center

8
Intersecting Issue 1Operational Ocean Modeling
and Forecasting
  • Key Activities
  • Data availability, access, and distribution
  • Concept of operations (CONOPS)
  • Shared development environment
  • Shared products and services
  • Key Approaches
  • Demonstration project align satellite altimetry
    observing requirements
  • Portal for ocean modeling outputs (NCDC)
  • Operational backup and data assimilation
  • Earth System Modeling Framework

9
Developing NOAA Strategy
Operations
Research
Products and Services
Phenomena of Interest
Observing Systems
ENSO Update
Time
Time
HAB Bulletin
Giant Bluefin Tuna
Space
Space
Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast
Guidance NOS, NWS Ops
Observations OSSE IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA
Data Assimilation OSE NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA
10
Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting
OBSERVATIONS
Satellite
In situ
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
COASTAL OCEAN BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION
CLIMATE FORECAST
OCEAN FORECAST
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Global to Regional Scale
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Global to Regional Scale
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Regional to Local Scale Rapidly
Relocatable
Shared history, coding, and data processing
OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECASTS
Climate Forecast System
Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System
http//tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
http//cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
11
Intersecting Issue 2Ocean Model and Forecast
Development
  • Key Activities
  • Standardization of models
  • Data assimilation
  • Shared development environment
  • Model validation and evaluation
  • Key Approaches
  • Model characterization HYCOM, ADCIRC, ROMS, WW3,
    SWAN, Tides, PC Tides
  • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
  • Model test beds and performance metrics
  • User/developer groups

12
Intersecting Issue 3Technologies and Standards
  • Key Activities
  • Source code
  • Standard tools and utilities
  • Standard inputs
  • Standard outputs
  • Key Approaches
  • Common configuration management
  • Software and information technologies
  • Databases
  • Static inputs and forcing functions
  • Data exchange formats
  • ESMF

13
Intersecting Issue 4Transition Methodology
  • Key Activities
  • Recommend metrics for common validation and
    intercomparison of models
  • Transition plans development to operations
  • Coordinate system development and transition
  • Key Approaches
  • Follow-on workshops
  • Mapping across Navy and NOAA transition plans
  • NOAA Transition Board
  • Navy Rapid Transition Process
  • Technical readiness levels

14
Define Current Infrastructure for Common Modeling
and Forecasting
15
Intersecting Issue 5Coordination and Program
  • Ensure chains of command are informed and
    continue to support the process
  • Maintain a steady flow of results and adjust
    coordination accordingly
  • Agreements for shared products or services or
    proposed joint efforts

16
Recommendations
  • Internal Establish NOAA Administrative
    Ocean/Coastal Modeling Oversight Panel
  • Dialogue on ocean model/forecast requirements
  • Resource support for ocean modeling working
    groups
  • Coordination among appropriate NOAA goals and
    programs
  • Oversight on end-to-end ocean/coastal forecasting
    systems
  • Joint Articulate and align Navy and NOAA
    requirements and approaches
  • Complete individual and joint Navy-NOAA
    ocean/coastal forecasting CONOPS
  • Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3,
    ROM)
  • Data Assimilation (expand JCSDA to include
    ocean/coastal activities)
  • Development of technical approaches to common
    issues
  • Joint high-level meeting for agency direction to
    ensure continuity of effort and visibility
  • Formalize NOAA and Navy ocean forecasting
    activities (annexes to MOA, Tri-Agency)
  • Develop communications plan for joint statement
    on Navy-NOAA community ocean modeling effort
  • External Integrate with external partner
    strategies
  • Provide guidance to IOOS Modeling and Analysis
    Steering Team, sponsor community modeling
    workshops
  • Ocean Research Priorities Plan
  • ESMF

17
Alternative 1
  • Ad hoc coordination with NOAA matrix and Navy
  • Pros
  • No funds needed
  • No obligations necessary (flexible)
  • Cons
  • Doesnt meet urgency of need for operational
    ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
  • Proliferation of options to solve problems
    independently
  • Technical issues not solved efficiently
  • One NOAA common voice not heard
  • No clear message to external community
  • Cannot guarantee commitments or quality

18
Alternative 2
  • Formalized NOAA AMOP to work with Navy AMOP to
    address technical issues
  • Ocean Model development, characterization,
    standards
  • Ocean Observations and assimilation OSSE, OSE
  • Data distribution and analysis
  • Products and services
  • IT coordination (hardware and software)
  • Pros
  • Completes NOAA end-to-end parallel mechanism for
    discussing ocean and coastal forecasting
    requirements, CONOPS, approval of research to
    operations, and technical execution
  • Establishes clear mechanism for negotiating ocean
    community modeling commitments with external
    partners, including Navy
  • Ability to fund, schedule, and execute
    implementation activities
  • Cons
  • May be construed as another governance committee,
    but must be characterized as an implementation
    body

19
Summary
  • Navy/NOAA working together to establish common
    ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
    frameworks for future success
  • Building on mutual and unique strengths in
    operational oceanography and coastal services
    through examination of existing efforts
  • Providing harmonized environmental models for
    external communities to focus on and provide
    physical basis for ecological forecasting

20
Extended Discussion
  • Communications
  • NOAA Strategy
  • Integration

21
CommunicationsDeveloping Synergies Within and
Outside NOAA
  • Global ? Local physical ocean modeling
  • Coordinate with Navy research and operations
    (CNMOC/FNMOC/NAVO, NRL, ONR)
  • Via NOAAs Environmental Modeling Program (???)
  • Advancing ecosystem modeling and forecasting
  • Alignment of NOAA research and operations (NESDIS
    STAR NMFS NOS CO-OPS, CSDL, NCCOS NWS NCEP
    OAR)
  • Engaging the external modeling community
  • IOOS Modeling Caucus and Modeling Analysis
    Steering Team (MAST)
  • JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan
    Forecasting subtopic
  • National governance
  • Development of Tri-Agency NUOPC

22
Developing NOAA Strategy
  • Starting from existing capabilities
  • Physical models
  • Considering user requirements
  • Coordinating activity in support of NOAA
    Environmental Modeling Program
  • Regional approach to management
  • Ecosystem forecasting alternative (Ecosystem
    Goal)
  • Next-generation integrated basin-scale
    operational ocean modeling system
  • Interface to ecosystem modeling and forecasting
    efforts

23
Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting
OBSERVATIONS
Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)
Satellite (Altimetry, SST)
In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships)
In situ (ARGO, Buoys, C-Man, NWLON, River Gage)
Data Cutoff
CFS 2 week data cutoff
RTOFS 24 hour data cutoff
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
Coastal Ocean Boundary Specification
CLIMATE FORECAST
OCEAN FORECAST
RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC
CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)
ODAAS NOS/CSDL/CO-OPS NWS/EMC/NCO
Shared history, coding, and data processing
OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast
System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
MOM-3 ? MOM-4 ? GUOM
HYCOM ? GUOM
Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System
http//tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
http//cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
24
Current Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting
  • Mostly physics modeling and data assimilation
  • Working towards integrating ecological modeling
  • Downscaling from global to regional to local
    models
  • Need to promote existing operations within and
    outside of NOAA

25
Developing NOAA Ocean and Coastal Modeling and
Forecasting StrategyEcosystems Modeling
  • Starting from existing capabilities
  • NOS Modeling Prioritization Project
  • Considering user requirements
  • Coordinating activity in support of NOAA
    Ecosystem Goal Team
  • Regional approach to management
  • Ecosystem forecasting alternative
  • Connections to Navy ecosystem modeling needs
  • Water quality, ocean optics, rivers and
    estuaries, marine mammals
  • Seamless suite of products and services

26
(No Transcript)
27
NOAA Coordination
Draft NOAA Ecosystem Modeling and Forecast
Products (Operational, In Development, and Needs)
Population dynamics
Invasive species suscept.
Ocean color/primary production
Risks/exposure
YEARS
FORECAST TIME FRAME
Decision support tools
Socioeconomic models
Socio-economic models
Larval trans./MPA design
Spill planning
Climate effects/food web
Disease transmission
Ecosystems (SLR, multiple stressors, hypoxia,
change)
Climate effects/water level
Resource harvest
USER GROUPS
Geomorphology
Geomorphology
MONTHS
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
Restoration
Particle trajectory (pollution, invasive species,
HAB, sediment, multimedia/multipath
sources) Biological/physical coupling
Hypoxic zone formation
Recovery curves
HABs (formation, upwelling, regional monitoring
prediction)
DAYS
Shellfish bed closures
Oil weathering
Oil weathering
Toxicity
Toxicity
Flood forecasts
Storm surge
Levels, currents, S T
REAL TIME
TRANSPORTATION
COASTAL HAZARDS
WATER QUALITY HUMAN HEALTH
COASTAL HABITATS
28
Recommendations
  • Complete NOAA, Navy, and joint CONOPS for
    operational ocean and coastal modeling and
    forecasting
  • Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3,
    ROM)
  • Coordinate among appropriate NOAA goals and
    programs
  • Specify continued NOAA-wide involvement
  • Resource support for working groups
  • Recognition of and dialogue on requirements
  • Clarify IOOS roles and responsibilities in
    community modeling development (Modeling and
    Analysis Steering Team)
  • Resource support for community modeling workshops
  • Formalize NOAA and Navy governance in ocean and
    coastal modeling and forecasting
  • Technical cooperation via annexes to MOU
  • Programmatic coordination via Tri-Agency NUOPC
    and other means
  • Develop communications plan

29
Schedule of Significant Events and Milestones
30
Additional and Expanded Slides
31
Background
  • Navy AMOP Meetings September 2005 (Naval
    Observatory) and February 2006 (Pearl Harbor)
  • March 29, 2006 Joint Planning Session, NOAA
    Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
  • Purpose Develop a plan of action and milestones
    for short-term joint activities
  • Outcomes Identified two important questions,
    how will we coordinate? and what are the
    details of the models?
  • June 13-14, 2006 Joint Workshop, Stennis Space
    Center, MS
  • Purpose Answer how will we coordinate?
    question
  • Outcomes Identified four issue areas for
    further cooperation and coordination
  • Relevant Statements, Policies, and Opinions
  • Ocean Action Modeling Plan (NOAA SAB)
  • Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
  • Tri-Agency Agreement (National Unified
    Operational Prediction Capability)
  • IOOS Development Plan

32
Technical Issue 1Operational Ocean Modeling
  • Data availability, access, and distribution
  • Coordinated satellite altimetry requirements
  • Common portal for static and time-dependent
    boundary data bases
  • Common portal for archive of model output
    products
  • Announce availability of lateral boundary
    conditions supporting regional and coastal models
  • Shared processing requirements
  • Concept of operations (CONOPS)
  • Operational backup of existing operational ocean
    modeling and data assimilation
  • Shared development environment
  • Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational
    modeling systems
  • Shared products and services
  • Definition of requirements (geographic and
    temporal scales)

33
Technical Issue 2Ocean Model Development
  • Standardization of models
  • Endorse existing developer/user groups for HYCOM
    and ADCIRC
  • Encourage new developer/user group for wave
    modeling (WW3, SWAN)
  • ROM and POM?
  • Data assimilation
  • Promote Navy NOS ocean representation on JCSDA
    Management Oversight Board
  • Shared development environment
  • Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational
    modeling systems
  • Model validation and evaluation
  • Process for joint review and recommendation of
    products for future coordinated development
  • Announce intention to coordinate development of
    ocean and coastal models
  • Creation of model test beds and evaluation
    metrics

34
Technical Issue 3Technologies and Standards
  • Source code
  • Encourage coordination and further development of
    ESMF core software
  • Common configuration management approach
  • Standard tools and utilities
  • Workshop to review and recommend common
    supporting software and technologies
  • Standard inputs
  • Static and time-dependent boundary data bases
  • Capability for access to common atmospheric
    forcing
  • Standard outputs
  • Workshop to review and recommend standardized
    data exchange formats and standards

35
Phenomena of Interest
100 yr
Climate
Decadal Oscillations/ Fish Regime Shifts
10 yr
ENSO
1 yr
Mesoscale phenomena
Fronts, Eddies, Filaments
Seasonal MLD Biomass Cycles
1 mo
Phytoplankton Blooms
Coastally trapped waves
1 wk
Temporal Scale
Plankton Migration
Synoptic Storms, River Outflows, Sediment
Resuspension
1 day
Internal Tides
Langmuir Cells
1 hr
Surface Tides
Individual Movement
Turbulent Patch Size
Inertial/Internal Solitary Waves
1 min
Molecular Processes
1 sec
Surface Waves
10-3 m
10-2 m
10-1 m
100 m
101 m
102 m
103 m
104 m
105 m
106 m
107 m
Spatial Scale
Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems
40-41 5-48.
36
Observing Systems
100 yr
Moorings, Bottom Tripods, and Shore-based and
Offshore-based Platforms
HF Radar
10 yr
Satellites
1 yr
Drifters, Floaters, Gliders
AUVs
1 mo
Submarine Ship Mapping
1 wk
Planes
Temporal Scale
1 day
1 hr
1 min
1 sec
10-3 m
10-2 m
10-1 m
100 m
101 m
102 m
103 m
104 m
105 m
106 m
107 m
Spatial Scale
Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems
40-41 5-48.
37
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38
High Resolution Coastal Domains(Demonstrates
interface between Shelf and Coastal models)
39
In DevelopmentOperational Coastal Models
  • Observations Long and short range radar, SAR,
    SeaWIFS, Lidar (already using altimetry, SST,
    and in situ obs C-Man, NWLON, river gages)
  • Data Assimilation CTDs, SST, Altimetry, Fronts,
    Surface radars

40
NOAA Coordination
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