Perspectivas INPE: 20052009

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Session 3 Impacts of Weather and Climate-Related
Extremes Social and Economic Impacts
José A. Marengo Earth System Sciences Center-
CCST National Institute for Space Research
INPE Sâo Paulo, Brazil
IPCC Working Group II Scoping Meeting Possible
Special Report on Extreme Events and Disasters
Managing the Risks Oslo, Norway 23-26 March
2009
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EMDAT - The International Emergency Disasters
Database (www.emdat.be)  -
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Climate change processes, characteristics
and threaths
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Variability and changes in extremes

• Where extreme weather events become more intense
  and/or more frequent?economic and social costs of
  those events will increase,
• In drier areas?climate change is expected to lead
  to salinisation and desertification of
  agricultural lands (e.g In Latin America,
  semi-arid and arid areas)
• Northeast Brazil may suffer a decrease of water
  resources due to climate change, with increasing
  precipitation variability with more dry spells
  and drought, and also a decrease in the
  groundwater recharge, and the rapid increase of
  population and water demand will exacerbate
  vulnerability.

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Climate-related disasters (or not?)

• There is evidence from various sources that
  indeed suggests that climate-related disasters
  are increasing in frequency at the global scale
• By climate-related disaster, we mean a
  detrimental outcome of a climatic event with
  respect to a human system or a system on which
  humans directly depend.
• Such a disaster is precipitated by the climatic
  event in question (for example an extreme
  precipitation event, windstorm, or drought), but
  its nature and severity is mediated by a variety
  of non-climatic factors and processes that serve
  to dampen or amplify the primary impacts of the
  triggering event.
• Changes in the frequency of climate-related
  disasters are therefore not necessarily caused by
  meteorological changes, and are not necessarily
  attributable to global climate change.

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R10
Tebaldi et al (2007)
CDD
Changes in R10 (number of days with rainfall
above 10 mm) and CDD (Consecutive dry days)
indices for IPCC AR4 A1B, 20802099 relative to
19801999.
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Battisti et al (2009)
(1900-2006)
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Drought
More rain
Drought
Less rain
El Niño impacts in South America
More rain
Drought
Less rain
High temp
More rain
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Risk of frost in the Northern Andes
Glacier retreat in the Central Andes
Convergence of climatic, poverty and
agrodiversity vulnerabilities in Peru
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Drought of Amazonia 2005 Relationship between
July-October anomalies in rainfall in
Western Amazonia and in the Index of the
north-south SST gradient across the tropical
Atlantic ocean (Cox et al. 2007)
Observations for the period 1901-2002
Model output from the HadCMLC GCM simulation
including aerosols is shown (1901-2002
Mean and STDV of the observation,
Simulation of the 21st century (2003-2100) using
the HadCMLC.
Mean and STDV estimated values for the 2005
Amazon drought
A 2005 drought caused widespread devastation
across the Amazon basin. Cox et al. (2008)
estimates that by 2025 a drought on this scale
could happen every other year and by 2060 a
drought could occur in nine out of every ten
years.
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a.k.a. The Pentagon Report
Weather and climate extremes
climate refugees
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Increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall
events for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90 in
western Amazonia and southern Brazil-Northern
ArgentinaIncrease in the frequency of
consecutive dry days in eastern Amazonia,
Northeast Brazil west central Brazil
A2-CDD-Consecutive dry days
A2-R10-days com rainfall above 10 mm
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Impacts and consequences

• Floods?huge economical disasters both for not
  insured people/companies, under insured
  people/companies and insurance companies, numbers
  of human lives.
• In Southern Brazil, heavy rainfall affected Santa
  Catarina State in November 2008 causing severe
  flooding and deadly mudslides, which affected 1.5
  million people and resulted in 120 casualties and
  left 69,000 people homeless. It was reported that
  most of the fatalities were caused by mudslides
  that swept away homes and business. Estimated
  cost so far US 350 million.
• Drought? cut off entire cities from their current
  by rain feed water sources, causing major
  economical damage. Water shortages will lead to
  severe societal turbulence and drifting of the
  populations of complete regions.

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Impacts and consequences

• Rainfall deficits during summer and fall 2001
  resulted in a significant reduction in river flow
  throughout central Brazil, thereby reducing the
  capacity to produce hydroelectric power in these
  areas (90 of Brazils energy is from
  hydroelectric sources).
• In 2005, large sections of SW Amazônia
  experienced one of the most intense droughts of
  the last hundred years. For the Acre State, the
  Defesa Civil estimated a lost of about US 87
  million due to the fires only, about 10 of the
  States GDP. As in 2001, the total cost of these
  droughts is not known
• The drought that affects northern Argentina since
  2008 determined a reduction in the agricultural
  production, and together with the international
  price reductions determined a projection of
  reduction of about 30 in exportation, of about
  US 8-9 billion for 2009.

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Cumulative Climate Change Index CCI
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Human Development Index (HDI) for Brazil-2000
Human Development Index (HDI)-Income
Human Development Index (HDI)-Education
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Sustainable development-human development-vulnerab
ility to climate change

• The sustainability of development in South
  America is strongly linked to the capacity of
  responding to the challenges and opportunities
  associated with climate change. The economy is
  strongly based on climate-dependent natural
  resources.
• Using the Human Development Index (HDI) as
  indicator, we see that the regions with lowest
  HDI are in the tropical region such as Amazonia
  and Northeast Brazil
• The Cumulative Climate Change Index CCI suggests
  that tropical South America exhibits the highest
  CCI, indicating regions where climate change
  would be most intense.
• The Amazon region and Northeast Brazil are the
  regions with highest CCI and also the regions
  with lowest HDI, suggesting that impacts of
  climate change would be strongest on poor
  regions in the tropics.

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Elements of vulnerability profiles to climate
related disasters
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A conceptual framework for risk

• Research into the human dimensions of climate
  change tends
• to concentrate on the concept of vulnerability,
  although various
• definitions of vulnerability exist. These
  definitions essentially fall
• into two categories
• A formulation that views vulnerability as a
  function of climate hazard, the exposure of a
  system or population to that hazard, and the
  sensitivity of the system or population to the
  impacts of the hazard. In this context hazard is
  defined purely in physical terms, for example
  absolute values of or anomalies in meteorological
  or climatic variables such as rainfall,
  temperature, or wind speed.
• A formulation that views vulnerability as a
  function purely of the internal properties of a
  system, for example the set of social, economic,
  political and environmental factors that mediate
  the impacts of any given hazard for a particular
  system.

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Social and economical aspects of climate change
Need for integrated assessments and adaptation
measures

• Not only places, but also persons have distinct
  vulnerabilities. Different social groups are
  exposed to different hazards of climate change
  and with different resources to respond to them.
• It is therefore necessary to identify these
  groups, locate them in the urban space and
  describe them socially and demographically for
  more efficient public policy.
• There is a need for projects intended to
  integrate the projections of climate alterations
  and socio-economic models, such that an
  integrated analysis of the economic impacts of
  these phenomena can be produced.
• On the basis of that, adaptation and mitigation
  policies may be proposed and implemented.

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Countries must prepare for possible impacts of
climate change and extremes for IVA assessments

• Improve regional and global climate models,
  including historical trend analyses
• Assemble comprehensive integrated models of
  climate change impacts.
• Create vulnerability metrics to understand
  countrys vulnerability to the impacts of climate
  change.
• Prepare and test adaptive responses to address
  and prepare for inevitable climate driven events
  such as massive migration and food and water
  supply shortages.
• Explore local implications of climate change and
  extremes in urban and rural areas, and develop
  estimates economical damages. Risk management can
  be applied in all of these contexts.
• Future sustainable development plans should
  include adaptation strategies to enhance the
  integration of climate change into development
  policies.

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Developing adaptation efforts (Interaction of
GT1 and 2 of IPCC)

• Effective adaptation strategies require
  understanding of regional / local dimensions of
  vulnerability
• Climate change does not occur in isolation
  multiple stresses (non climatic)
• Domestic policies can enhance or constrain
  society ability to adapt to climate change
• Adapting to climate variability and climate
  change
• Adaptation and sustainable development policies
• Take advantage of the work of the UN-Department
  of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) on the
  indicators of Climate Change and Sustainable
  Development, as official national indicators