AVAILABILITY OF EXCESS CAP WATER

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AVAILABILITY OF EXCESS CAP WATER
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Colorado River Allocations
Upper Basin 7.5 MAF
Lower Basin - 7.5 MAF CA 4.4 MAF AZ 2.8
MAF On-river users . 1.3 MAF CAP (junior
priority)... 1.5 MAF NV 0.3 MAF
MX 1.5 MAF
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COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Assumptions

• Current Reservoir Conditions (Jan.1, 2003)
• Lake Mead (Elevation 1152, 17 maf storage, 61
  capacity)
• Lake Powell (Elevation 3620, 14 maf storage, 57
  capacity)
• 70R Surplus Criteria
• 80 Protection of 1,050 Lake Mead elevation
• YDP Operational in 2009
• Upper Basin Limit 4.8 maf
• Interim Surplus Guidelines Through 2016

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COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Assumptions contd

• CAP Shortage Volume -- 500 KAF
• CAP Surplus Volume -- 400 KAF
• 96 years of Colorado River hydrology used in
  sequential traces (1906 - 2001)

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COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Results

• Decade Shortage Probability Surplus Probability
• 2003-2012 3 11
• 2013-2022 18 23
• 2023-2032 25 19
• 2033-2042 28 19
• 2043-2052 31 17
• 2053-2062 33 12
• Additional
• Current Dry Cycle since 1988 - 15 years
• Worst Case Scenario using Driest 10-year period
  of record with current conditions - results in a
  potential shortage in 2014.

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KEY ASSUMPTIONS

• Planning Period 2005 2104
• 20 YEAR PERIOD 2005 2024
• 80 YEAR PERIOD 2025 - 2104
• Entire Period CAP Normal Deliveries
• GRIC Settlement Completed/Implemented
• All CAP Water Contracted/Used by 2050
• SRP Drought Deliveries End After 2005

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CAP WATER SUPPLY CONCEPTUAL DELIVERY PRIORITY
SCHEMATIC
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CAP DEMAND PROJECTION PROCESS
INDIAN ON-RESERVATION DEMANDS
MI SUBCONTRACT DEMANDS
MI INDIAN LEASE DEMANDS
Project Build out Schedules
Tribal Development Plans
NIA EXCESS WATER DEMANDS
BOR Projections
Customer Development Plans
Outlook 2003
Water Use Studies
CAGRD Plan of Operation
EXCESS DEMANDS
CAWCD Ag Pool Policy (2004 2030)
CAGRD Build out Plan
Estimated Direct Use Incentive Demands
AWBA Demands
Projected SRP Demands
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REMAINING EXCESS WATER AVAILABLE (after NIA
commitment)
Demands shown in Blue
Does not include 1.1 maf Interstate .6maf
Indian Firming
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EXCESS WATER SUPPLY CONCLUSIONS

• Ag Pool Commitment 2004 2030 will be met
• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet
  Projected Annual Obligations in 2016, 2018 2030,
  2051 - 2104
• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet
  Projected AWBA Needs
• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet
  Replenishment Reserve Target ABSENT Acquisition
  of Long-Term Supplies

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