The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for lightduty vehicles based on the California model

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The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for
light-duty vehicles based on the California model

• Russell Long, Ph.D.
• Bluewater Network
• Founder, Executive Director

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Global Warming
Threatens progress on the most important social
and environmental problems of our time.

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Burning of fossil fuels is the 1 cause of global
warming
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Transport accounts for two-thirds of US oil
consumption
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Transportation trends

• Virtually all transport energy comes from
  petroleum
• In the US, 76 of US transport energy is used by
  highway vehicles, of which 60 is from cars and
  light trucks (almost half of total)

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CO2 from a Model T driven in 1909 is still in the
atmosphere, warming our planet
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Transportation Trends

• Average US fuel mileage from new light duty
  vehicles in 2003 has fallen 6 in the past 15
  years
• US transportation energy consumption is
  increasing by 1.8 annually, faster than any
  other category, much of this due to passenger
  vehicles

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Someone Ought to Pass a Law

• Oil, Big Auto blocking US efforts to increase
  federal fuel mileage standards
• November 2000, Bluewater Network conceives of and
  sponsors AB 1493 Californias Climate-Friendly
  Car Law
• Goal regulate greenhouse gases just like other
  pollutants

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Californias Climate-Friendly Car Law

• First law specifically targeting reductions of
  greenhouse gases from passenger vehicles nearly
  40 of state GHG inventory
• Strong mandate requires maximum feasible
  cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gases from
  new passenger vehicles.

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The Air Resources Boarda history of firsts

• Required smog controls such as catalytic
  converters on vehicles
• Created low-emissions/zero emissions vehicle
  mandate that led to low-smog vehicles, alt-fueled
  vehicles, electric cars, and hybrids
• Result California cars in 2003 produce 99 less
  smog than in 1970

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Obstacles Round One

• Auto industry/oil industry reportedly spent over
  5 million on deceptive ad campaign
• Radio
• Television
• Print
• Convinced many citizens that the new law would
  raise the price of fuel and vehicles
• Thousands of angry phone calls, letters, and
  emails poured into State Capitol opposing bill

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Californias Climate-Friendly Car Law

• Legislation prohibits
• speed limit reductions
• driving or trip limitations
• ban on SUV sales
• land-use requirements
• new auto or fuel taxes

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The Road to Victory Supporters include

• National political and entertainment figures
  Senators McCain and Kerry, Majority Leader Dick
  Gephardt, Robert Redford, Barbra Streisand
• Unions and Associations (Teachers, Firefighters,
  Nurses, Service Workers, Fishers, etc.)
• Business leaders and industry (Ski industry,
  Silicon Valley entrepreneurs)

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The Road to Victory Supporters include

• Air and Water Quality Agencies
• Churches and Religious Leaders
• Public Health and Environmental Organizations
• Farmers
• Local Governments
• Major Newspapers

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July 2002 bill signing ceremonyfor CA
Climate-Friendly Car Law
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Nuts and Bolts of the Regulation

• Affects new vehicles, starting with model year
  2009
• The state has until December 31, 2004 to develop
  actual regulatory language
• Potential for absolute cap on emissions from all
  new passenger vehicles in state
• Potential for ramping up alternative fuels and
  alternative fueled vehicles

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Options under consideration

• Change catalyst or refrigerant 2
• Eliminate smog-forming pollution particulate
  matter 3
• Increase Efficiency 25-60
• Change fuels lt 100

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Efficiency is a No-Brainer

• Todays Toyota Prius cuts greenhouse gas
  emissions almost in half compared to Toyota
  Camry, or a quarter that of a large SUV

But not enough

• Still 4 tons of carbon dioxide per year - because
  it uses the wrong fuel

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Fuel-Technology Benefits

• Hydrogen from US grid energy (w/ fuel cell) none
• Corn ethanol (E85 flex fuel vehicle) 20
• Compressed natural gas (CNG vehicles) 20
• 2004 gasoline hybrid 25-35
• Hydrogen from natural gas (fuel cell) 30-50
• Natural gas electricity (EV) 38
• Idealized hybrid incl. mass reduction 60
• Biodiesel 78
• Renewable hydrogen lt100
• Biogas lt100
• Cellulosic ethanol lt100

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Fossil Hydrogen Reality Check

• Economic
• Barring regulatory controls, the free market will
  dictate that the lowest cost fuel inputs will be
  used to make hydrogen, e.g. coal
• Excessive barriers to development of hydrogen
  vehicles/infrastructure, especially developing
  nations

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Fossil Hydrogen Reality Check

• Technologic Carbon storage for hydrogen produced
  from coal or natural gas steam reformation still
  unproven
• Permanent sequestration may be a fantasy. Déjà vu
  - parallels to nuclear waste storage

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Renewable Hydrogen

• Need to set minimum renewable hydrogen content
  requirements
• Expensive on gas-equivalent basis, but price
  expected to fall dramatically in near-term
• As costs decline, percentage of renewable
  hydrogen to be increased

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CA Climate-Friendly Car LawRound Two

• Gov. Schwarzenegger friend or foe?
• Regulations finished by Dec. 31, 2004
• 2005 legislative review
• 2005 Auto industry lawsuit federal preemption
  question

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The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular
GHG) Standard

• Growth projected from 600 million passenger
  vehicles in 2003 to 1 billion before 2020
• China now 2 in auto manufacturing
• US transportation energy consumption increasing
  at 1.8 annual rate
• The EU projects dramatic increases
• By 2020, EU transport oil consumption is
  projected to grow 34 above 1990 levels

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The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular
GHG) Standard

• Technologically viable with high efficiency
  technologies and lower GHG fuels
• Politically viable
• Increase national energy security plans
• Decrease air and water pollution
• Reduce capital outflows from oil importing
  nations
• Force Big 3 to develop low GHG vehicles
  worldwide, undermining their arguments to
  Congress that they cannot build the same vehicles
  for the US

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UNFCCC Should Consider Establishing Standards
That

• Permit delayed implementation for developing
  nations
• Force the auto industry to develop most efficient
  vehicles and utilize appropriate alternative fuel
  sources
• Achieve new vehicle emissions reductions of up to
  60 by 2020

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Bluewater Network

• Bluewater Network promotes critical policy
  changes in government and industry to reduce
  dependence on fossil fuels and eradicate other
  root causes of air and water pollution, global
  warming, and habitat destruction.
• 311 California Street, Ste 510
• San Francisco, CA 94104
• 415-544-0790
• www.bluewaternetwork.org