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Title: Future%20Fuel%20Technology%20Scenario%20and%20Roadmapping%20for%20Asia-Pacific


1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th
September 2006
Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping
for Asia-Pacific
Nares Damrongchai and Greg Tegart
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
2
Background
Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a
factor in the rate at which new technologies
enter the economy
Source Facts and Trends to 2050 energy and
climate change, WBCSD
3
Background
The Hubbert Peak according to ASPO
4
Background
Different scenarios on oil depletion
5
Background
Changes in our atmosphere are already underway
6
Introduction
Foresighting Future Fuel Technology the project
  • A project of the APEC Industrial Science and
    Technology Working Group (ISTWG) in collaboration
    with the APEC Energy Working Group
  • Proposed by the APEC Center for Technology
    Foresight, with co-ownership and strong support
    from
  • National Metal and Materials Technology Center
    (MTEC), Thailand
  • Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI),
    Chinese Taipei
  • Bureau of Energy, Chinese Taipei
  • Office of National Science Advisor, Canada
  • Industry Canada
  • National Institute of Science and Technology
    Policy (NISTEP), Japan

7
Introduction
Scope and focus
  • An APEC-wide foresight project covering the whole
    Asia-Pacific region
  • To examine rapidly emerging technologies for fuel
    for transportation and stationary energy
    production
  • Hydrogen
  • biofuels
  • conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons
  • Vision stretching to 2030

8
Introduction
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
region
9
Project overview
  • Core information
  • Plausible pathways
  • Technological gaps
  • Aiming for energy security
  • Possible and plausible future events

goals
Scenarios (vision goals)
Technology roadmaps (robust options linkages)
Final symposium (public consultation)
methodology
Krabi
Vancouver
PingTung
Chiangmai
timeline
2004
2005
2006
Economy-level implementation
Recommendations for APEC
outcomes
10
Implementation Stage 1
  • Web-based survey to gather initial information
    and provoke interest among experts to participate
    in the process
  • Position Papers written and posted on website
  • Scenario 2030 Workshop 56 experts from 11
    economies gathered in Krabi, Thailand during Dec
    13-15, 2004 to examine the issues and highlight
    RD need, government policies and actions through
    scenario writing process

11
Implementation Stage 2
  • Technology Roadmaps (TRMs) derived from the
    Scenario 2030 Workshop to demonstrate pathways
    that APEC members can cooperate for possible fuel
    development in the APEC region.
  • The TRM Workshops were held in
  • Vancouver, Canada in 27-29 April 2005 (57
    experts, 10 economies)
  • Pingtung, Chinese Taipei in 10-12 August 2005 (48
    experts, 11 economies)

Now
Future
12
Implementation Stage 2
The Future Fuel TRM Architecture
  • Covers all dimensions of fuel
  • Trends and Drivers
  • Barriers (system/ infrastructure/technology)
  • Process and Products
  • Resources needed
  • Relevance of individual fuel roadmaps with each
    other
  • Linkages
  • Integrations

Supra-economy intergovernmental
13
Implementation Stage 2
The Integrated Future Fuel Roadmap
14
Post-foresight continuing engagement
Collaborative projects
  • Clean coal technology (China)
  • Flexible fuel car/electric car (USA/Australia)
  • Fuel processing and reforming technology for
    practical fuels to hydrogen for fuel cell
    application (Thailand, China etc.)
  • Storage technology e.g. battery (Thailand, C.
    Taipei)
  • (Companies) proprietary technologies could be an
    issue to overcome
  • Cellulosic technology (biotechnology) for ethanol
    (Canada)
  • Database and Inventory (Australia)
  • Intl study on drivers for acceptance of ethanol
    fuel (Australia)
  • H2 code and standard, energy efficiency standard
  • Harmonization of fuel biodiesel specification
    (Thailand, with EWG)
  • Implementation and Facilitation Assistance Team
    (IFAT) within APEC EWG e.g. on nuclear power
  • Standardization of fuel related-terminology
  • Demand forecast, life cycle analysis (USA)
  • Solar energy TRM (Thailand, Chinese Taipei, etc)
  • Establish fuel blending strategy (USA)
  • National-level technology roadmap for biofuels
    (Thailand, by MTEC)

?
?
?
15
Lessons learned
Key success factors and cautions
  • The importance of some sort of urgency
  • Social infrastructure (the networks)
  • High-level commitment
  • Involvement of decision-makers throughout the
    process
  • Visioning and goal setting
  • Integration into broader policy strategy
  • Clear link to decision makers
  • Possibilities for iterations should be
    investigated
  • Oblication to monitor the implementation and to
    evaluate the outcomes, uptake and impacts

APEC Center for Technology Foresight Email
apectf_at_nstda.or.th URL http//www.apecforesight.o
rg
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