ERASMUS 09

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ERASMUS 09
Simulation Highway Step by Step to Common
Environment
Warsaw University of Technology
Prof. Egils Ginters
Sociotechnical Systems Engineering
Institute Vidzeme University of Applied
Sciences E-mail egils.ginters_at_va.lv
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Introduction

• The decision making in the obstacles of
  technological society becomes very difficult due
  to complexity of technological processes
• The requirements for situations forecasting
  and transparency of the scenarios in
  manufacturing before decision making are topical
  due to high costs of the equipment and labour
• The varied simulation tools can be used for
  solving the tasks mentioned above

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The Systems

• Physical and Conceptual or Abstract systems
• Open and Closed systems
• Continuous and Discrete systems
• Static and Dynamic systems
• Linear and Non-linear systems
• Deterministic and Stochastic systems
• Technical, Social (environmental, biological
  etc.) and Sociotechnical systems

Steins, K. (2006). Introduction to Simulation.
Intl Masters Programme in Manufacturing
Management, Linkoping University.
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The Systems Social systems

• Interdependent objects and/or subsystems
• Objects are humans, individuals, informal
  groups, organizations, biologic and natural
  objects etc.
• Interaction with systems environment and
  other systems
• Wide amount of important factors can be
  stochastic
• Self-organization, Cognition and continual
  Evolution is typical
• Model structure can vary during analysis and
  operation

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The Systems Technical systems

• Finite amount of the states
• Limited amount of observed perturbations
  (factors)
• Control algorithm mostly does not support
  interaction with outer systems
• No Self-organization, Cognition and
  continual Evolution
• Influence of human or biologic factor is
  limited

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The Systems Sociotechnical systems

• Dual nature
• Complex structure
• Distributed simulation
• Different technologies in the same framework
• Real systems

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The Systems Technical, Social and Sociotechnical
systems

• Traffic lights control system

• Driver (human) behaviour system

Weather
Pollution
Sociotechnical
Health
Sleep
Lighting
Drugs
Spirits
Stress
Knowledge
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The Systems Decision making

• What happen if....?
• How to forecast?

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Simulation Definition

• Simulation is the imitation of the
  operation of a real-world process or system over
  time.
• Banks, Jerry (1998). Handbok of simulation. John
  Wiley Sons, ISBN 0-471-13403-1.
• Simulation modeling and analysis is the
  process of creating and experimenting with a
  computerized mathematical model of a physical
  system.
• Chang, Chris (2004). Simulation modeling
  handbook a practical approach, CRC Press LLC,
  ISBN 0-8493-1241-8.

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Simulation When?

• Analytical analysis is impossible
• - Uncertainty (stochastic processes)
• - Complexity too much important factors
• Real life experiments are impossible
• - The goal system does not exist yet
• - There is too much risk
• - The costs are too high

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Simulation Technologies

• System dynamics and world (large systems)
  models
• Micro analytical simulation models
• Queuing models
• Multilevel simulation models
• Cellular automata
• Agent-based models
• Learning and evolutionary models

Gilbert, Nigel, Klaus G. Troitzsch (2006).
Simulation for the Social Scientist. Second
Edition. ISBN 139780335221493, Open University
Press.
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Case Studies Simulation tasks in livestock
products manufacturing

• System dynamics and world (large systems)
  models
• Changes of land acreage used in agriculture
• Forecasting of changes in proportion of
  production modes
• Estimation of influence of livestock products
  manufacturing on environment and environmental
  politics.
• Queuing models
• -Logistics processes Animals transfer and
  handling (purchasing, selling, liquidation)
• -Procurement and storing of forage
• -Routes planning.
• Micro analytical simulation models
• -Modelling of manufacturing and service processes
  at the farm level.

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Case Studies Simulation tasks in livestock
products manufacturing

• Multilevel simulation models
• -Products quota planning
• -Forecasting of food market and volume of
  agricultural manufacturing
• -Tax policy planning at the state level.
• Agent-based models
• -Infection disease spreading
• -Forecasting of epizootic situation
• -Estimation of changes in human resources
• -Planning of quality of the manufacturing
• Learning and evolutionary models
• -Learning and training processes modelling
• -Animals quality assessment
• -Estimation of inbreeding and heterosis.

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Simulation Technologies and Tools

• System dynamics modelling DYNAMO, Vensim,
  POWERSIM, STELLA and iThink
• Microanalytical simulation MICSIM, UMDBS,
  STINMOD, DYNAMOD, CORSIM
• Queuing models DELSI 1.1., OMNET, QSIM, QPR
  Process, general discrete-event systems EXTEND,
  SIMPLE, ARENA, SIMUL8, AutoMod, WITNESS
• Multilevel modelling HLM, MIMOSE, MLwiN, aML
• Cellular automatons CAFUN, LCAU, CASim,
  Trilife, JCASim, CellLab, CAGE, SITSIM
• Agent-based models AgentSheets, NetLogo,
  AnyLogic, SWARM, RePast
• Learning and Evalutionary Models Artificial
  Neural Nets (ANNs), Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and
  Genetic Programming (GP), Reinforcement Learning
  (RL)

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Problems in Simulation Use

• Applied simulation technologies and tools are
  different and complex

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Simulation Highway Concept

• Common approach and rules to access the
  simulation models

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Simulation Highway Concept
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Simulation Highway C-translation
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Simulation Highway C-translation CASE

• Ligatne Natural Trails
• Founded in 1975
• Integrated tourism object for recreation and
  ecosystems research
• More than 100.000 visitors
• Nature trail with animals 5.5km wild nature
  trail 1.3km scenic route for cars 5.1km trail
  along the Gauja river 2.0km

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Simulation Highway C-translation CASE- Extend
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Simulation Highway C-translation CASE-NetLogo
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Simulation Highway C-translation CASE

• CORBA, HLA

• C-translation (Simulation Tools lt-gt
  Distributed Environment)
• - From Simulation Terms and Languages
• - To Distributed Simulation Environment Terms and
  Formats.

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Simulation Highway Concept
OK
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Simulation Highway B-translation

• B-translation (Systems Specification lt-gt
  Simulation Tools)
• - From Formal Languages and Analytic Models
• - To Simulation Terms and Languages.

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Simulation Highway B-translation SimQL/SimAL
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Simulation Highway Concept
OK ?
OK
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Simulation Highway A-translation

• A-translation (Applied Processes lt-gt Systems
  Specification)
• -From applied HMI in Natural Language, Graphs and
  Tables
• -To Formal Languages and Analytic Models

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Simulation Highway Concept
!!!
OK ?
OK
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Conclusions

• Simulation is the great instrument, which can
  enhance decision making at different levels of
  the management and control.
• Great instrument is nothing without
  convenient and universal interface granting
  access to everybody without specific IT knowledge
• Simulation Highway common approach and
  rules to access the simulation environment

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Simulation Highway Step by Step to Common
Environment

• Thank you for attention !