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Climate Change Risk, Stress, and Adaptation Sammy Zahran, PhD Assistant Professor Colorado State Uni

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Title: Climate Change Risk, Stress, and Adaptation Sammy Zahran, PhD Assistant Professor Colorado State Uni


1
Climate Change Risk, Stress, and
AdaptationSammy Zahran, PhDAssistant
ProfessorColorado State University
2
Discussion Outline
  • Introduction and Problem Statement
  • The Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
  • Collective Action and Selective Incentives
  • Variable Operations and Data Sources
  • Logistic Regression and Scatter Plot
  • Conclusion

3
Climate Change Risks
  • Climate change risks are social, economic, and
    ecological.
  • Risks are distributed unevenly by geography.
  • Risks are selectively harmful to coastal,
    maritime and low-lying island societies.
  • Risks are potentially beneficial.
  • Government willingness to participate in policy
    solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change
    risks may be explained by these geographic
    specific impacts.

4
Climate Planning Risks
  • Climate policies designed to stabilize CO2
    emissions.
  • Climate policies distribute costs and benefits
    unevenly by geography.
  • The willingness of a government to support a
    climate policy solution may be partially
    determined by the relative distribution of costs
    and benefits that accompany policy action.

5
Local Climate Planning
  • 100 U.S. localities joined the Cities for
    Climate Protection (CCP) campaign sponsored by
    the International Council for Local Environmental
    Initiatives (ICLEI).
  • ICLEI coordinates mitigation efforts of 700
    municipalities globally.
  • Localities recognize climate change as a
    significant local concern, and commit to
    reduction of local GHG emissions.

6
The Rationality on Non-Participation
  • Reducing local emissions will not fully insulate
    a locality from the adverse transboundary
    effects.
  • The costs of climate change mitigation may be
    greater than the expected benefits.
  • The collective benefits of climate protection are
    non-excludable.
  • No federal assistance for the implementation of
    climate change protection programs.
  • Why would a U.S. locality commit to the CCP
    campaign when there are strong incentives to do
    otherwise?

7
Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
  • Estimated 78 percent of CO2 emissions from
    cities.
  • Spiky world.
  • ICLEI Urban CO2 Reduction Project.
  • Toronto Target.

8
Collective Action and Selective Incentives
  • ICLEI has no regulatory authority.
  • Collective benefits are non-excludable.
  • CCP campaign more likely to succeed if localities
    accrue selective (excludable) benefits from
    participation.
  • A separate and selective incentive will stimulate
    a rational individual in a latent group to act in
    group-oriented ways.
  • Mancur Olson 1965

9
Place as a Source of Selective Incentives
  • Uneven geographic distribution of expected costs
    and benefits is the analytic pivot to predict
    variation in CCP campaign involvement.
  • Selective incentives to participate in the CCP
    campaign spring from two major sources
  • The extent to which a locality is vulnerable to
    the risks of climate change and variability.
  • The socioeconomic capacity of a locality to
    commit to emission reduction targets.

10
Climate Change Risk Incentives
  • Coastal proximity and water risk.
  • Expected temperature change.
  • Extreme weather events.
  • Constitute a localitys selective vulnerability
    to climate change.
  • All things held equal, localities with higher
    vulnerability to the risks of climate change are
    significantly more likely to commit to the CCP
    campaign.

11
Socioeconomic Capacity Incentives
  • Carbon intensive activities and industries.
  • Political and civic composition.
  • Environmental concern.
  • All things held equal, localities with higher
    socioeconomic capacity are significantly more
    likely to commit to the CCP campaign.

12
Dependent Variable
  • CCP Campaign Status
  • A locality receives a score of 1 if it has
    officially committed to the CCP campaign by
    council resolution and a score of 0 if not.
  • Overall, 112 counties examined were party to the
    CCP campaign as of November 2005.

13
Localities Party to the Cities for Climate
Protection Campaign
14
Independent Variable Measurement
15
Binary Logistic Regression Coefficients
Estimating Odds of CCP Commitment
16
Spatial Distribution of Climate Change Risk at
the County Scale
17
Spatial Distribution of Socioeconomic Capacity at
the County Scale
18
Distribution of Climate Change Risk for
Metropolitan Areas in the United States
19
Distribution of Climate Change Stress for
Metropolitan Areas in the United States
20
Scatter Plot of Risk and Capacity by CCP Status
High-High
Low-Low
Socioeconomic Capacity Dimension
21
Conclusion
  • Proximity to the coast, expected temperature
    change, and previous casualties from natural
    hazards such as floods and hurricanes are
    significant triggers for CCP involvement.
  • Higher risk selectively motivates participation
    in the CCP campaign.
  • CCP localities are responding to the threats of
    climate change.
  • Socioeconomic makeup is significant.
  • Recruitment options High-High as low hanging
    fruit.
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