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Projecting Louisianas Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 20102030

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Title: Projecting Louisianas Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 20102030


1
Projecting Louisianas Future Population Trends
for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030
  • Dr. Troy C. Blanchard
  • Department of Sociology
  • Louisiana State University

2
Acknowledgement
  • This work is a product of a collaborative effort
    between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide
    a variety of agencies and organizations at the
    state and local level with timely demographic
    data on our state.

3
Background Information
  • What are population projections and who uses
    them?
  • Who projects populations and how is it
    accomplished?
  • How do we interpret a population projection?
  • What are the important findings from the
    2010-2030 population projections?
  • What new trends are emerging that may require
    additional research?

4
What are population projections and who uses them?
  • A population projection is a simulation of what a
    population will look like at some point in the
    future based on a set of assumptions.
  • Projections are used by a wide variety of
    entities
  • Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare,
    Councils on Aging) use projections to identify
    areas with a fast growing elderly population.
  • Businesses use projections to identify a
    particular customer base.
  • Economic development groups use projections to
    identify the demand for jobs.

5
Who projects populations?
  • U.S. Census Bureau calculates population
    projections for the U.S. and individual states.
  • Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S.
    Census Bureau mission
  • Parishes
  • Cities/Towns/Villages
  • School Districts
  • Most states develop some type of projection
    effort to inform policy makers.
  • Louisiana Department of Administration, Office
    of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data
    Center

6
How is a population projected?
Calculate number of deaths
Population at Time 1
Population at Time 2
Calculate number of births
Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)
7
How is a population projected?
  • Use past trends to predict future.
  • Why past trends?
  • Fertility and mortality patterns generally
    stable.
  • Migration is the least stable of the three
    components that influence population size, so we
    use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).
  • Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues
    and is difficult to predict
  • Job opportunities
  • Quality of education
  • Housing stock
  • Access to natural amenities
  • Family, social, and cultural pulls

8
How do we interpret a population projection?
  • Example
  • The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by
  • 107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.
  • Caveat 1 If recent fertility, mortality, and
    migration trends remain the same, this will be
    the outcome.
  • Caveat 2 Not set in stone, if something happens
    that changes the migration, fertility, or
    mortality rates, the outcome will change.

9
Parish Population Growth 2010-2020
10
Key Points
  • A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are
    growing.
  • I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas
  • Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans
  • Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is
    concentrated.
  • Shreveport Metropolitan Areas
  • Alexandria Metropolitan Areas

11
Parishes Projected to Gain Population, 2010-2020
12
Key Points
  • Top growth parishes
  • Livingston (BR Metro)
  • St. Tammany (NO Metro)
  • Ascension (BR Metro)
  • St. John (NO Metro)
  • Plaquemines (NO Metro)
  • Bossier (Shreveport Metro)
  • DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)

13
Parish Projected to Lose Population, 2010-2020
14
Key Points
  • Top growth parishes
  • Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)
  • Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)
  • East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)
  • Winn (Rural-Central LA)
  • Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta
    Region)
  • Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan
    Area-Central LA)
  • Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)

15
Metropolitan Area Trends
16
New Trends to Consider
  • Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the
    growing Hispanic population.
  • Grew by 4.83 from 2007-2008.
  • Nonhispanic Whites-.14
  • Nonhispanic Black-1.64
  • Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth
    areas
  • The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7
    growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing
    metro (lt1 between 2007 and 2008).

17
Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA
Metropolitan Areas
18
Top 20 Parishes for Percent Hispanic Population
Growth
19
Thank You!For More InformationDr. Troy C.
BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State
University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA
70803troy_at_lsu.edu(225) 578-5123
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