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Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA

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Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0C, land areas warmed more than oceans ... Winter warming is more in the high mountain regions, and less in the steppe ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change Scenarios Development P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA


1
Climate Change Scenarios Development P.
GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA
2
  • Why we are studying climate change ?
  • Climate condition and its change are one of the
    limiting factors for economic development of the
    country
  • Last 40 years the ecosystem of Mongolia is
    clearly changed as result of combination of
    climate change and human activity
  • Mongolian ecosystem is very vulnerable and
    sensitive to the climate change. Because of
    severe continental climate
  • The study result gives background understand of
    the level of potential impacts of climate change
    on environment and economic sectors
  • Identify the response measures in human life to
    adapt under changes in climate system

3
Observed Global Climate Change
  • CO2 concentration is increased 280 ppm for period
    1750 to 368 ppm in 2000, 31
  • Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0C, land
    areas warmed more than oceans
  • Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is
    increased over the 20th century greater than
    during any other century in last 1000 years
  • Hot days/Heat index is increased
  • Frequency and severity of drought is increased by
    5-10over 20th century Northern Hemisphere
  • Heavy precipitation events is increased at mid
    and high northern latitude
  • Global mean see level is increased by 20 sm since
    1900
  • Snow cover is decreased by 10 since 1960
  • Growing season is lengthened by 1 to 4 days per
    decade during 40 years

4
Recent Trends of Global Average Surface
Temperature
A combination of surface air temperature over
land and sea-surface temperature over the ocean.
Individual bars show annual values as deviations
from 1961-1990 average.
5
Present Climate Feature in Mongolia
  • Climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with
    sharply defined seasons, high annual and diurnal
    temperature fluctuations, low rainfall and
    relatively long duration of sunshine in a year.
  • Average annual temperatures are around 8.5oC in
    the Gobi and -7.8oC in the high mountainous
    areas.
  • The extreme minimum temperature is -31.1oC to
    -52.9oC in January and the extreme maximum
    temperature is 28.5oC to 42.2oC in July.
  • Annual mean precipitation is 300-400 mm in the
    mountain regions, and 150-250 mm in the steppe,
    100-150 mm in the steppe-desert and 50-100 mm in
    the Gobi-desert areas. About 85-90 per cent of
    total precipitation falls in summer
  • Mongolia has on an average 3,000 hours of
    sunshine annually

6
Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia
  • During the last 60 years
  • Annual air temperature increased an average by
    1.660C this increase was greater in the winter
    (3.610C), and smaller in the spring (1.4-1.50C)
  • Winter warming is more in the high mountain
    regions, and less in the steppe and Gobi and
    desert.
  • There is no significant changes in annual
    precipitation amount.

7
Geographical distribution of annual mean
temperature change in last 30 years
8
Extreme weather index and its change
9
Winter is getting snowy and summer is getting dry
10
Future Climate Change Scenarios in Mongolia
Method of Climate Change Study and Its Impact
Study
11
  • Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under
    different climate models
  • winter precipitation change intensity is high
    than summer and summer temperature change
    intensity is high than winter
  • It is indicating that winter is getting warmer
    and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

12
Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990 January

July
13
How accurate is the climate model?
14
 
Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission
scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model
15
Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change
16
Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change
17
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18
Thank you for your attention
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