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Computational Epidemiology: Bayesian Disease Surveillance

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14th century: Europe: 25 million: Plague. 1521: Aztecs: 3.5 million: Small pox. 1918: Worldwide: at-least 20 million: Influenza ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Computational Epidemiology: Bayesian Disease Surveillance


1
Computational EpidemiologyBayesian Disease
Surveillance
  • Kaja Abbas, Armin R. Mikler,
  • Amir Ramezani, Sheena Menezes
  • University of North Texas

2
Presentation Outline
  • Computational epidemiology
  • Brief overview of past epidemics
  • Mathematical epidemiological models
  • Bayesian learning
  • Bayesian disease outbreak model
  • Results and analysis
  • Conclusion and future work

3
Computational Epidemiology
4
Epidemic History
  • 14th century Europe 25 million Plague
  • 1521 Aztecs 3.5 million Small pox
  • 1918 Worldwide at-least 20 million Influenza
  • 2003 SARS rapid global spread

5
Influenza Infection Timeline
6
Mathematical Epidemiology
  • Susceptibles Infectives Removals (SIR) model

SIR State Diagram
7
SIR Epidemic Curve
Disease Prevalence
8
Limitations of SIR model
  • Explicit representation of outbreak data
  • Lack of demographic analysis

Bayesian Epidemic Model
  • Learning
  • Implicit representation of population
    demographics

9
Bayesian Learning
  • Probabilistic Reasoning
  • Reasoning under uncertainty

10
Disease Outbreak Bayesian Network
11
Bayesian Network for Demographic Analysis
12
Geographic Region I Probability distributions
13
Geographic Region I Bayesian Network
14
Geographic Region I Analysis
15
Geographic Region II Probability distributions
16
Geographic Region II Bayesian Network
17
Geographic Region II Analysis
18
Regional Comparison of Inferences
Region I
Region II
19
Summary
  • SIR Model
  • Lack of demographic analysis
  • Bayesian Epidemic Model
  • Demographic analysis
  • Spatial portability of inferences

20
Current Work
21
Discussion, Questions Comments
  • Computational Epidemiology Bayesian
    Disease Surveillance
  • Kaja Abbas, Armin R. Mikler,
  • Amir Ramezani, Sheena Menezes
  • Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory
    (cerl.unt.edu)
  • Department of Computer Science and Engineering
  • University of North Texas
  • Email kaja, mikler_at_cs.unt.edu, ar0116,
    srm0034_at_unt.edu
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