Political Selection

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Political Selection

• Nominations and Campaigns

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Presidential Campaigns and Elections

• Money and media attention increase viability of a
  candidate
• Momentum early victories increase both
• Nominees known in early summer
• Conventions are end of nomination phase,
  beginning of election season
• Campaign events occur until Election Day

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Nominations

• Nomination The official endorsement of a
  candidate for office by a political party
• Success requires momentum, money, and media
  attention
• An effective campaign strategy or plan to win the
  nomination is important
• Campaigns U.S. campaigns (especially for
  president) can last 18 months or more
• Caucuses and primaries select delegates

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Two Kinds of Delegates

• The vote
• Candidates for the nomination receive numerical
  delegates based on the percentage of the vote
  they receive
• Larger states are worth more delegates than
  smaller states
• The first to a simple majority wins the
  nomination
• The person
• Each state sends a number of delegates to attend
  the national convention and formalize the
  nomination

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Winning Delegates by Party

• Democrats
• Proportional distribution of delegates
• 15 percent viability threshold
• Republicans
• Decision by state party
• Some states are winner-take-all
• Some are proportional (Iowa)
• No viability threshold

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The Caucus

• Caucus Party leaders and registered party
  members meet to select nominee
• An informal debate and selection process at a
  precinct location (Democrats)
• Republicans take a straw poll
• Candidate with at least 15 percent support
  receives a delegate (Democrats)
• Not used by many states
• Iowas is considered the most important

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The Primary

• Primary Elections in which voters choose the
  nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee
• Began at turn of 20th century by progressive
  reformers
• McGovern-Fraser Commission (1970) led to
  selection of delegates through primary elections
• Most states use one of three primary types
• Many primaries are early (front loading), with
  New Hampshire being the first
• Generally serve as elimination contests

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Primary Types

• Closed primaries voters must be registered with
  their party in advance and can only vote for that
  party
• Open primaries voters decide on election day
  which party to participate in, and then only that
  party
• Blanket primaries voters get a list of all
  candidates and can vote for one name for each
  office, regardless of party label
• Unconstitutional

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Media

• Shift from convention/leadership to
  primaries/voters leads to increased reliance by
  candidates on media
• Media coverage needed, esp. in primaries where
  PID cannot drive vote selection
• Media do not necessarily cover policy
• Less substance, more horse race
• Media drive expectations
• Best to exceed expectations

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Media

• Horse Race versus Policy coverage of campaigns

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Money

• Money buys organization, helps early success
• Money buys recognition
• Money buy legitimacy in eyes of media and
  potential donors and voters
• Money buys flexibility in where one may
  campaign/buy ads

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What about Organization?

• Grass roots support and organization
• Need volunteers to canvass, get out the vote
• Voter turnout can be crucial to winning early
  primaries and caucuses
• Iowa and New Hampshire
• As party becomes more importantas races become
  more competitiveso too does organization and
  grass roots volunteers

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Organizing the Campaign

• Must haves
• campaign manager and counsel
• Media and campaign consultants press secretary
• Fund raisers
• Also,
• Organize a staff to plan campaign logistics
• Hire research staff, policy advisors pollsters

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Frontloading

• When most or all of the presidential primaries
  occur in the first few months of the nomination
  season
• States try to schedule primaries early so they
  occur before the nominee is known
• California
• Front loading puts additional stress on lesser
  known candidates entrenches the front-runners
  chances of winning

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The Nomination System in Perspective

• Disproportionate attention to the early ones
• Prominent politicians often do not run
• Money is a necessary but insufficient reason for
  nomination success
• Participation in primaries and caucuses is low
  and unrepresentative
• The system gives a lot of power to the media

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Conventions

• Conventions do not determine partys nominee
• They are a formality, a send-off for partys
  presidential and vice-presidential nominees
• Conventions determine party platform
• End of convention marks beginning of general
  election campaign
• Spend federal campaign funds
• Candidates typically receive bump in polls
• Divided convention may hurt partys nominee

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Conventions

• Once provided great drama, but now they are a
  basic formality, which means less TV time
• No gavel-to-gavel coverage on the networks
• Conventions do provide motivation to and support
  for the partys nominee
• Again, formal nominations, candidate speeches,
  and send-off for presidential campaign

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Conventions
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The General Election Campaign

• Election campaign begins after the nomination
  period
• Need media attention through TV ads and free
  coveragedebates, candidate news
• Market an individual candidate, a winning image
• News focuses on strategies, polls, and events,
  not on policies

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Campaign Events

• Conventions
• Formal nomination and send-off
• Convention bump
• Advertising
• What we know
• Positive ads increase turnout slightly
• Contrast ads increased turnout slightly
• Negative, mudslinging ads decrease turnout
  slightly
• Speeches and news
• Focus on the negative gaffes

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Campaign Events

• Debates
• Since 1992, there have been 3 prez and 1 veep
  debates
• Do they matter?
• Reinforcement who you prefer going in is who you
  prefer/thought won coming out
• Media effects
• Change minds for a small percentage

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Money and Campaigns

• FEC Created by law in 1974 to administer the
  Federal Election Campaign Act
• Public financing of presidential elections
• Limited spending required disclosure
• Limited contributions to campaigns
• Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
• Soft Money
• Contributions (with no limits) used for
  party-building expenses or generic party
  advertising

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Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act

• Bans soft money, money not regulated by the FECA
• Justified expenditures from party organization to
  get out the vote and register voters
• Soft money opponents claim it gives groups and
  individuals too much unregulated access to
  parties, candidates, and policies
• Raises hard money contribution limits
• Gave rise to 527 groups in 2004 election

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Political Action Committees (PACs)

• Created in 1974 to allow interest groups to
  donate money to campaigns legally through FECA
• Over 3900 PACs donating over 212 million
• Donate to candidatesespecially incumbents who
  support their issue, regardless of party
  affiliation.
• PACs do not buy candidates
• PACs help FEC regulate campaign contributions

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Political Action Committees

• Big Spending PACs

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Moneys Impact on Campaigns

• Fund raising takes up lots of time.Candidates
  could focus on issues if money not as important
• Candidates need enough money to win
• But having to spend a lot means that an incumbent
  candidate is in danger of losing
• Lots of money does not guarantee success
• More money spent in close races

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Campaigns and Vote Choice

• Campaigns tend to reinforce attitudes mobilize
  voters, not change minds
• Selective perception we pay attention to things
  we agree with.
• A limit of medias impact on elections
• Party identification explains most voters
  decisions
• Only about 10 percent of voters change their minds

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Do Campaigns Matter?

• Minimal Effects Model
• Party identification is the best predictor of
  vote choice
• Durable feature of the American voter
• Referendum Model
• Evaluate past performance of party in power
  Better off now than you were four years ago?
• Less predictive when no incumbent running (2008)

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Predictors of Election Outcomes

• Presidential approval
• If people support the incumbent partys that
  partys candidate has a great chance of winning
  the election
• The economy
• when the economy is doing well, the candidate
  whose party is in power has a great chance to
  win.
• Peace and prosperity
• Time for a change

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Political Science Forecasts

• Obama projected to win 53 percent of the popular
  vote
• Actual 53 percent of the popular vote
• House of Reps 247 seats for Democrats
• Actual 257, gain of 21 seats
• Senate 54 seats go to the Democrats
• Actual 56 seats (plus Franken?)

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Summary Thoughts

• Nominations and campaigns are open to everyone,
  but time and money limits pool of candidates
• Money is important
• A necessary but insufficient condition for
  victory
• Media attention may be more important than money
• Campaigns reinforce ideas and mobilize voters