Glacial%20melt%20in%20the%20Hindu%20Kush/%20Himalayas/%20Tibetan%20Plateau-%20A%20case%20study%20in%20the%20geopolitical%20and%20environmental%20security

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Glacial melt in the Hindu Kush/ Himalayas/
Tibetan Plateau- A case study in the geopolitical
and environmental security
IES - Climate Change Security at Copenhagen -
II The Contribution of the Global Security
Community to Success Brussels, 7 -8 October 2009

• Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd)
• President
• Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
  Studies (BIPSS)

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(No Transcript)
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Glacial melt---

• The temperature increase in the Himalayan region
  has been greater than the global average of 0.74
  C over the last 100 years (IPCC 2007).
• The higher the altitude the more rapid the
  warming.
• This ongoing rapid warming has a profound effect
  on the Himalayan environment.
• Retreat of glacier tongues has led to the
  formation of glacial lakes.
• The resulting glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)
  can cause damage to life, property, forests,
  farms and infrastructure.

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Glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas
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The melting glaciers in the Himalayas

• Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster
  than in any other parts of the world.
• In Northwest China, 27 of the glacier area will
  decline by 2050 (equivalent to an ice volume of
  16,184 km3), as will 10 to 15 of the frozen soil
  area.
• IPCC made a forecast that if current trends
  continue, 80 of Himalayan glaciers will be gone
  in 30 years recent estimates suggest this loss
  in 50 years.
• The current trends of glacial melt suggest that
  the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers
  across the northern Indian plain could likely
  become seasonal rivers in the near future.
• Between 20 and 40 reduction of runoff per capita
  is likely by the end of 21st century in the NW
  provinces of China. 

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Himalayan glaciers are shrinking more rapidly
than elsewhere
Source Dyurgerov and Meier 2005
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Snow-cover change in the Himalayas
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Snow-cover change in the Himalayas
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Glacial melting in Tibetan Plateau

• Glacier recession on the Tibetan Plateau has
  quickened, triggering a series of environmental
  calamities.
• Winters are not as cold as before.
• Warmer climate has sparked an onset of epidemic
  diseases
• Water in summer is no longer as clean as before.
• Tibetan plateau is home to an expanse of glaciers
  measuring 59,425 square kilometers.
• But now the glaciers are shrinking by 131 square
  kilometers yearly.

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Rongbuk Glacier in Tibet
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The melting glaciers impacts on water

• As glaciers melt, river runoff will initially
  increase in winter or spring but will eventually
  decrease as a result of loss of ice resources
• This is likely to be unfavourable for downstream
  agriculture
• This could seriously affect half a billion people
  in the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region and a quarter
  billion people in China who depend on glacial
  melt for their water supplies. 

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High dependence of major South Asian countries on
transboundary surface water
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River basins of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas
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Experts Opine that--

• Glacier change is an indicator of climate change
• Regular monitoring of glaciers including mass
  balance is necessary
• Monitoring of glacial lakes and adaptation and
  mitigation measures for potentially dangerous
  glacial lakes are required.
• The development of a dynamic and regional
  database on glaciers and glacial lakes will
  greatly enhance the understanding of global and
  regional climate trends.
• Regional cooperation is necessary for systematic
  research on snow and ice and water 

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Impacts on Human Life

• The most marginalized (mountain communities and
  ethnic minorities, etc.) and vulnerable groups
  will suffer the most from.
• Impact on biodiversity and affect on peoples
  diet, nutritional status and nutrition related
  health problems.
• Infectious diseases, particularly the insect
  vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue
  fever and Japanese encephalitis are sensitive to
  the impact of climate change.
• Agriculture, particularly rain-fed agriculture is
  highly sensitive to climate change.
• Increase in temperature may reduce the crop
  yield, particularly of cereal crops, and
  therefore cause food shortage.

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Geopolitical and Environmental Security aspect

• Conflict over possession of natural resource.
• Socio-political and economic unrest.
• Migration en masse.
• Regional disintegration.
• Inter and/ or Intra-state conflict.
• Loss of biodiversity.
• Loss of human habitat.
• Extinction of species.
• From Nuclear Winter to Carbon Summer.

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Affects of global warming in Bangladesh

• If nothing is done to curb emissions, sea levels
  could climb more than three feet.
• 15 of Bangladesh could be under water if sea
  water rises 1 feet.
• The mangrove forests of Sundarban islands, a
  world heritage site, the Bengal tiger and
  hundreds of bird species may disappear.
• Tens of millions of Internally Displaced
  Persons(IDPs).
• Bangladeshs food supply is already threatened by
  flooding due to melting glaciers in some areas
  and droughts due to heat in others.
• Environmental issues can also fuel violence and
  political unrest.

Sourcehttp//www.askasia.org/
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Sea Level Rise Worst Case Scenario
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Recommendations

• Need to reduce scientific uncertainty.
• Reduce risk from seasonal and flash floods.
• Support community-based adaptation and disaster
  management.
• Need to promote regional co-operation in water
  resource management.
• Need to do policy advocacy at national and
  regional levels. 

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Thank you
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
Studies (BIPSS)