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REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION REDD

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Title: REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION REDD


1
REDUCTION EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST
DEGRADATION (REDD)
  • Rizaldi Boer
  • Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity
    Management in South East Asia and Pacific- Bogor
    Agricultural University
  • rizaldiboer_at_gmail.com

2
  • How to construct a baseline against which to
    measure changes in the rate of deforestation?
  • How to measure and monitor the emission reduction
    from deforestation and forest degradation
  • What definition being applied for REDD Forest,
    deforestation and forest degradation?
  • Can we simplify the approach?

3
What is a Baseline?
  • Future projection of emissions from deforestation
    and degradation under the absence of REDD
  • A reference for measuring reductions in emissions
    from deforestation and degradation

4
  • Need to show reduced emissions from deforestation
    and degradation measured against the baseline

Monitored
5
How is a Baseline Set?
  • Historical approach
  • a straight projection of the past
  • Which years and how far back?
  • an average of the past
  • Which years and how far back
  • 2. Modeling approach
  • it is modeled on planned land use
  • ..Spatial model
  • ..Non spatial model
  • 3. Other approaches (Forward looking baseline
    Terrestrial Carbon Group Proposal)
  • ? To be discussed/negotiated

6
BASELINE REL (Reference Emission Level)
  • The SB 28 decision (ref) describes Reference
    Emissions Levels (REL) as follows Means to
    establish reference emission levels, based on
    historical data, taking into account, inter alia,
    trends, starting dates and the length of the
    reference period, availability and reliability of
    historical data, and other specific national
    circumstances. similar to a Kyoto target for
    Annex I countries, except that in the case of
    REDD, no penalty is due in the case of
    non-compliance

7
Rate of Emission from Deforestation Indonesian
Case
  • If REL just based on historical, then Sumatra
    will get much benefit from REDD (giving more
    incentive to regions with high past deforestation
    and less to low past deforestation)
  • Need to consider others SBSTA based on
    historical data taking into account other
    specific national circumstances

8
What are the specific National Circumstances
  • Other regulations that may exist in the country
    such as regulation on minimum forest area that
    has to be maintained by a region or taking
    historical data of forest fraction vs population
    density in the region
  • Apply different REL for unprotected and protected
    forests

9
(No Transcript)
10
Threshold proposed by a number of non-Annex 1
parties
10 Minimum
11
What to Measure and Monitor?
  • Emissions from deforestation and degradation
  • Emissions are estimated from
  • Change in forest cover
  • Deforestation
  • Degradation
  • Carbon stocks of forests undergoing change

12
How to Monitor
  • Elements of system
  • Credible
  • Transparent
  • Real
  • Based on good science
  • Comply with policy framework
  • Three Approaches and three Tiers
  • A monitoring system can be designed to meet any
    need

13
Methodology Approaches and Tiers
Source IFCA Presentation
14
Example of a monitoring system
Forest inventories In-situ/plot
data-projects Targeted remote surveyse.g. Lidar
and aerial imagery FAO statistics IPCC-GPG / AFOLU
Source IFCA Presentation
15
What definition being applied for REDD Forest,
deforestation and forest degradation?
  • None
  • To be negotiated
  • Critical for REDD implementation
  • Definitions will affect baselines, monitoring
    methods, and potential credits

16
Definitions
  • Forest under the KP forest is defined
    structurally on the basis of crown cover
    percentage, minimum height and minimum area of
    stand
  • Forest area 0.05 to 1 ha (Indonesia decided on
    0.25 ha)
  • Potential to reach a minimum height at maturity
    in situ of 2-5 m (Indonesia decided on 5 m).
  • Tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level)
    10 to 30 (Indonesia decided on 30)
  • Deforestation if forest cover falls below the
    minimum crown cover, it qualifies as
    deforestation, but if this is only a temporary
    change, such as for timber harvest with
    regeneration expected, the land remains in the
    forest classification.
  • IPCC Degradation may be defined as a direct,
    human-induced, long-term loss (persisting for X
    years or more) or at least Y of forest carbon
    stocks and forest values since time T and not
    qualifying as deforestation. The parameters X,Y
    and T have not been defined.

17
What are the implications?
Do not meet forest definition
Forest
Forest
X years
18
Gross vs Net Deforestation
150 t C/ha
90 t C/ha
Natural Forest
Plantation
Gross Only consider the carbon loss occurs on
that year without considering the sequestration
Net Take into account the sequestration occur
after forest disturbance
19
Can we simplify the approach?
  • Much of the current discussion does not fully
    account for the dynamic links between

Demand for food, fibre, fuel, carbon, and land
Prices for those commod-ities
Population
Land use decisions
20
Can we simplify the approach?
Forest cover
Time
Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics
Undisturbed forests
Forest/agric.mosaics
Forest frontiers
21
Can we simplify the approach?
Climate change is a greenhouse gas
problem Reducing rates of deforestation is an
important near-term goal, but reducing rates is
not enough Must also avoid emissions Otherwise
same area of forest will be destroyed, and same
volume of greenhouse gas will be emitted, but
over a longer period
Year of Volume Carbon
Total Emissions
22
Can we simplify the appoach?
  • AWG-LCA
  • Policy approaches and positive incentives
  • on issues relating to reducing emissions from
    deforestation and forest degradation in
    developing countries and
  • the role of conservation, sustainable management
    of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
    stocks in developing countries

23
  • there is more to terrestrial carbon than
    forests, so start with what we are confident
    about and build up to a comprehensive system

Total Terrestrial System
All Relevant Greenhouse Gases
Peatlands Forest Lands that can become secondary
forest
Carbon CO2
24
PROPOSAL FROM Terrestrial Carbon Group
  • TCG Proposal
  • All C-stock in protected forests are not tradable
    (PF and CF)
  • All C-stock in unprotected forest or subject to
    deforestation or degradation are tradable PrF,
    CnF, PF/CFthreat)
  • For unprotected TC, No need to set up REL
  • How to define protected forest under threat?
    May need modeling approach or other simple
    approach e.g. if population density beyond
    certain level and allowable forest fraction under
    such density less than existing protected forest,
    then the difference can be defined as the
    threaten protected forest?
  • The loss of carbon in agreed protected TC can be
    compensated by planting trees in unprotected TC
    (Thus REDD and AR can be combined)

PF/CF
HP
PF/CF
CnF
PrF/CPrF
25
Example How Much Indonesia will get?
  • Total forested area of Indonesia is about 86.2
    million ha. Following the TCG proposal
  • About 32.6 million ha is protected forests
    (HL/HK)
  • About 53.6 million ha can be defined as
    unprotected or tradable terrestrial carbon (HP,
    HPK, APL). With approximate carbon stock of 140
    ton per ha, the total protected terrestrial
    carbon would be equivalent to about 16,760 Mt CO2
    and the unprotected or tradable terrestrial
    carbon will be about 27,500 Mt CO2
  • If there is no REDD mechanisms all the
    unprotected terrestrial carbon would be
    disappeared or seriously degraded in the future.
    Using crediting period of 50 years, the projected
    mean rate of emission from deforestation and
    forest degradation would be about 550 Mt CO2 per
    year. Thus, with price of 10 USD/tCO2,
    Indonesia could earn about 5.5 billion USD per
    year in the next 50 years
  • Indonesia can decide not to sell all tradable TC
    to avoid over supply in the carbon market
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