NextGen and Its Impact on Performance

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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide
Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation
System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March
26-30, 2007
Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation
Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice
President of Operations Planning
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Its More Than Just the Movement of People and
Goods

• Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5 of U.S. GDP
• If expanded to include related industries,
• its 9 of U.S. GDP
• Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy

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2025 NextGen Concept
For full version, see www.jpdo.aero
Key Capabilities

• Net-Enabled Information Access
• Performance-Based Services
• Weather-Assimilated Decision Making
• Layered, Adaptive Security
• Broad-Area Precision Navigation
• Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations
• Equivalent Visual Operations
• Super Density Operations

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Cost of Not Moving to NextGen
Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF
Growth) OEP HS Capacity Estimate
No Change Capacity Demand
175,000
155,000
135,000
100 Billion Annual Economic Loss
Uncons Comm
Flights Per Day
115,000
40 Billion Annual Economic Loss
95,000
OEP HS
75,000
No Change
55,000
2004
2014
2024
2034
Demand by Year
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Future Demand on the NAS
Flights 1.4-3X
3X
Not to scale
TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate
TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025
2X
Enplanement Demand
TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate
Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection
1X
2004
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2025 NextGen CapabilitiesCapacity Impacts
Airspace Capacity
Airport Capacity
NextGen Capabilities

Current
Current
Current
Current
For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are
modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to
selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP
airports
Bad Wx
Good Wx
Good Wx
Bad Wx
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NextGen Performance Dual Focus

• Air Traffic Management
• Improved Performance-based services
• Area Navigation (RNAV)
• Required Navigation Performance (RNP)
• Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)
• Improved Information Availability (SWIM)
• Improved weather prediction availability and
  coordinated weather picture

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NextGen Performance Dual Focus

• Aircraft and Operator Performance
• Improved aircraft performance
• Navigation and aircraft flight performance
• Improved noise and emissions performance
• Provide better decision quality data to pilots
  and air traffic controllers to enable
  higher-density operations with high level of
  safety

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Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets
Enterprise Architecture Performance Reference
Model
Flight Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture
Adjust Plan
Portfolio Management
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Demonstrated Metrics Experience
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Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics
Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow
NAS Today
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Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen
Capabilities