NYS Estimates of Income Eligibles and Unmet Need

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NYS Estimates of Income Eligibles and Unmet Need
Wayne DeNyse Victoria Lazariu-Bauer Dan Kellis
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Overview - May 1999

• Based on two-year average of annual New York
  State (NYS) births
• Births are adjusted for 185 percent of the
  federal poverty guidelines using
• 1990 Census
• Current Population Survey (CPS)
• Administrative data
• Statistical modeling

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Administrative data

• Medicaid births
• Teenage pregnancies
• Unemployment Insurance
• Per capita income

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Statistical model

• The statistical(regression) model
• is developed using 1990 census
• and administrative data.
• The purpose of this model is to
• estimate the relationship between
• actual poverty levels (census) and
• indicators of poverty (administrative data).

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Medicaid adjustment

• The county level poverty estimates
• are adjusted (increased) to account for
• the more flexible definition of the family
• unit under Medicaid.

The definition allows persons with incomes above
185 poverty to enroll in Medicaid and thus be
eligible for WIC.
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Final county estimates

• The result is the final county level
• estimates of the number of WIC income
• eligible infants.

The estimated income eligible infants are then
used to directly estimate the numbers of women
and children income eligible for WIC.
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Estimate of unmet need
Unmet need estimated eligibles - actual
monthly participation
The number of WIC participants is determined by
linking the actual number of WIC
certifications with the check redemption file.
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Results - Statewide

• 55.7 percent of estimated income eligible WIC
  participants received WIC services
• 50.1 percent of estimated income eligible women
  were served
• 86.9 percent of estimated income eligible infants
  
• 54 percent of estimated income eligible children
  received WIC services

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Conclusion

• The eligibility estimates are compared to actual
  monthly service.
• A high proportion of infants are being served.
• Only half of eligible women and children.