Climate Change Plus

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Climate Change Plus

• Key Stewardship Drivers
• Presentation to MOFR Senior Leadership Team
• November 8, 2006
• Jim Snetsinger Chief Forester
• Ray Schultz ADM MPB Emergency Response
• Henry Benskin Deputy Chief Forester

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Today well cover

• Climate change and what well do to address it
  through FFEI
• MPB impact on mid-term timber supply
• MPB Socio-economic Implications - Ray Schultz
• Bio-energy Henry Benskin

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Climate Change

• Important driving issue
• Wide range of impacts to our business
• Here for the long term
• Happening now

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Ecosystem changes

• Species selection is based on ecological (BEC)
  zones
• BEC zones in future may change due to climate,
  affecting species and genetic suitability
• Work needed on adjusting BEC system to adapt to
  changing climate

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Hamann, A. and T. Wang. Ecology 2006
Current
2080s
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MOFR Role in Climate Change

• MOE leads provincial climate change file
• Under this umbrella, MOFR leads on forest and
  range components
• Our approach to develop a sound, measured,
  informed response
• Involve partners

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Climate Change Progress

• Task Team Report -13 recommendations
• Develop capacity to respond
• Improve knowledge through analysis, research
• Review operational policies and practices
• Technical Advisor in place
• Implement through FFEI

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Future Forest Ecosystems

• Impetus - increasing stress on BCs forests from
  climate change (MPB, wildfires, droughts)
• Purpose adapt forest management framework to
  changing forest ecosystems
• Objectives research, forecasting, monitoring,
  policy evaluation change, extension (46
  projects will deliver objectives)
• Desired outcomes forest ecosystems remain
  resilient to stress continue to provide basic
  services, products benefits to society

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FFEI Process Next Steps

• Released draft recommendations - June 2006
• Consultation phase - June Sept 06
• Product revisions implementation planning Oct
  Dec 06
• Implementation of projects starts Jan 07
• Integration of initiative into normal ministry
  business within 3 years

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Climate Change/ FFEI Summary

• Climate change is a key driver of future business
• Touches all aspects
• Ecosystem work under way through FFEI
• Our corporate responsibility as stewards
• Learn more, get ready

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Stewardship and MPBProvincial Perspective

• Annual mortality peaked in 2004 (2005 red) at
  139 million m³/year.
• Estimate 420 million m3 of pine affected in the
  20 TSAs with gt 10 pine.
• About 36 of the provincial total (1.2 billion
  cubic metres) already affected.
• Preuplift AAC for the 20 TSAs - 39.4 million
  m3/year.
• Current AAC for 20 TSAs - 52.6 million m3/year.
• Postbeetle harvest for 20 TSAs 26 to 31
  million m3/year depending on pine harvest focus
  and duration.

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MPB - Provincial Perspective
Cumulative volume affected on the timber
harvesting land base
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MPB Protecting Mid-term Harvest

• Focus pre-uplift harvest in affected (gt 70 pine)
  stands for as long as possible.
• Direct all uplift volume (14.4 million m3/year
  for 20 TSAs) in affected (gt 70 pine) stands.
• Retain all stands with a live component that
  makes them merchantable in the mid-term.
• Retain stands with advanced regeneration that
  could make them merchantable in the mid-term.
• Encourage alternative uses for dead pine (i.e.
  bioenergy) to prolong the duration of the uplift
  and get stands back in production.

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MPB Monitoring Harvest
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MPB Key Considerations

• Harvest in affected stands (gt 70 pine) for as
  long as possible is key to mid-term timber
  supply.
• Need to investigate whether policy or regulations
  are impeding the harvest of affected pine stands.
• Need to encourage innovative uses of the affected
  resource.
• Encourage non-timber uses of the forest.
• Regeneration strategies need to be mindful of
  future insect outbreaks, climate change, fire
  etc.

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MPB - Social and Economic Implications and Actions

• Ray L. Schultz, RPF
• Assistant Deputy Minister
• Mountain Pine Beetle Response

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Being The Low Cost Producer In Global Commodities
Thousands Of Jobs

• Consolidation of Ownership
• Consolidation of Milling Capacity
• Rationalisation of Contracting in the Woods
• Replacement of Workers With Technology

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Geographic Diversity In Socio-Economic Impacts
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Summary of Pressures and Opportunities

• Pressures
• Future Contraction In Commodity Solid Wood
• Uncertain Pulp Sector Future
• Loss Of Industrial Tax Base In Municipalities
• Historic Slow Economic Growth In Heart Of Epidemic

• Opportunities
• All Levels Of Government Aligning
• Technical Solutions To Extend Shelf Life
• Large Unexplored Region For Minerals and Energy
• Macro Economics Of Bioenergy Biorefining
• Value Added Wood
• Agriculture
• Inland Ports

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The Main Agents Of Change

• Cross-Government Response By BC Government
• Provincial Funding Approaching 200 million/3
  Years
• Federal Commitment Of 200 million
• First Nations MPB Initiative, First Nations
  Forestry Council, Harmonisation of First Nations
  Provincial Plan
• Community Action Coalitions Omineca, Cariboo,
  South
• NDI and SDI Trust Funds
• Innovation Opportunity For Policy Community To
  Stimulate Socio-Economic Responses

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Bio-Energy

• Henry Benskin Deputy Chief Forester

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Context for B.C. Wood Bio-energy Opportunities

• 7 million BDt/yr MPB logging residues
• 1 million BDt/yr incinerated beehive burner
• B.C.s net electricity imports 12
• grow by 1.5 /yr
• Beehive Burner emissions
• 0.5M BDt wood pellet exports
• Carbon constrained future

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Provincial Wood Bioenergy Strategy Project

• Co-led by MOFR, EMPR past 6 months
• Stakeholder and experts dialogue to identify best
  business cases
• Focus on short, medium and longer term
  opportunities
• MPB and other biomass sources
• Cross-walk with Alberta Fibre Roadmap

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Next Steps

• Strategy report completed mid-October/06
• Deputy and Ministers briefings
• Wood Bio-energy provision in BC Energy Plan?
• Directed BC Hydro Call for Wood Bio-energy
  Proposals?
• Implementation planning

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B.C. Bio-Superpower

• B.C. already is Canadas dominant producer of
  bio-products
• We have great biomass growing capacity
• MPB as a springboard towards bio-energy, forest
  industry transition, eventual bio-refining, and
  sustainable rural bio-economies?
• Can we use our inherent strength in renewable
  resources for strategic advantage?

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In Summary

• Proactive approach to climate change a key
  business driver
• Adaptation is progressing through FFEI
• Can mitigate mid-term timber supply by focusing
  harvest in affected stands with more than 70
  pine.
• Options exist to counter socio-economic impacts
• Bio-energy offers promising potential

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• Thank you