Closure of workshop Extremes in a changing climate

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Closure of workshopExtremes in a changing
climate
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Follow-up (1 of 4)

• The ETCCDI will collect the workshop outcome and
  produce a WMO-CCL Guidance Statement on the
  question
• How to assess probabilities of extremes in a
  changing climate?

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Follow-up (2 of 4)

• This guidance is targetted at NMSs around the
  world who need to deal with practical questions
  in climate change adaptation strategies (extremes
  tables / return periods for non-stationary
  conditions, etc.)

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Follow-up (3 of 4)

• Guidance will reflect that the best way to do
  this is still under debate, but we have seen many
  good presentations on issues like
• observed changes in extremes in the past
• statistical tools to deal with nonstationarity
  spatial extr.
• how good can models simulate extremes?
• how to analyse this, given scaling issues, etc.
• including covariates is helpful
• how to best use probabilistic future climate
  projections

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Follow-up (4 of 4)

• The EU-project ENSEMBLES will continue for
  another year, and extremes will be one of the
  important cross-cutting themes (www.ensembles-eu.o
  rg)

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Presentations

• We plan to make all workshop presentations
  available from the ETCCDI website (if the authors
  do not object)

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Organization

• This workshop is jointly organized by the
• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
  Indices (ETCCDI) of WMO-CCL, CLIVAR and JCOMM
• EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, RT5(ENSEMBLE-based
  Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts)

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Agenda for tomorrow morning
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