Advancing human security through knowledgebased approaches to reducing vulnerability and environment

1
Advancing human security through knowledge-based
approaches to reducing vulnerability and
environmental risks
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITYInstitute for
Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
2
Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na
Amazônia
Environmental Degradation, Climate Change,
Conflicts and Migration
Fabrice Renaud Associate Director UNU-EHS Bonn,
Germany
3
Global Environmental Change and Human Security
Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi
Annan
4
Environmental change, climate change and conflicts
(1)Brown et al (2007) Climate change as the
new security threat implications for Africa.
International Affairs 831141-54 (2)Nyong
Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP
Report, Issue No 12.

• Climate change is increasingly discussed in
  relation to international conflicts and security
  in general(1)
• For example, in the West-African Sahel(2)
• Droughts linked to climate variability increase
  the vulnerability of communities and conflicts
• Migration of pastoralists from the North towards
  southern regions occupied by sedentary farmers
  generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also
  exists whereby farmers from the South move
  towards the North because of land degradation
  processes.
• However, straightforward causality effects are
  generally rare as many other factors come into
  play economic, social, political and cultural
  (re. the discussions surrounding the Darfur
  conflict or water wars)

5
Current potential effects of climate change in
Latin America
Magrin et al. (2007) Fourth IPCC Report

• Climatic variability and extreme events are
  severely affecting the Latin America region over
  recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005)
• During the last decades important changes in
  precipitation and increases in temperature have
  been observed
• Land-use changes have intensified the use of
  natural resources and exacerbated many of the
  processes of land degradation
• Three quarters of the drylands are affected by
  degradation processes
• Decrease in natural land cover through climatic
  and man-made impacts
• Under future climate change, there is a risk of
  significant species extinctions in many areas of
  tropical Latin America
• Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is
  expected in eastern Amazonia
• Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid
  vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil
• The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather
  and climatic variability and extremes are very
  likely to affect coastal areas

6
Likelihood that future summer average
temperatures exceed highest summer temperatures
observed on record
Battisti et Naylor (2009) Historical warnings of
future food insecurtiy with unprecedented
historical heat. Science 323 240-244
2040-2060
2080-2100
7
Human security, vulnerability and climate change
(1)Barnett Adger (2007) Climate change, human
security and violent conflicts. Political
Geography 36639-655

• Vulnerability of people and communities with
  respect to climate change depends on(1)
• Their dependence with respect to ecosystem
  services
• The impact of climate change on these ecosystems
• Adaptation capacities of the communities
• Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability
• Societies adapt constantly
• However, what are their limits when considering
  climate change?
• Migration is a type of adaptation

8
Environmental migration estimates

• Some estimates on environmental migration
• 24 millions (UNHCR 2002)
• 2010 50 millions (Myers 2005)
• 2050 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006,
  IOM 2008)
• After 2050 up to 700 millions (Christian Aid
  2007)
• Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to
  conflicts

9
UNHCR and environmental migration
Guterres (2008) Climate change, natural
disasters and human displacement a UNHCR
perspective

• In terms of international governance there is a
  distinction between international and cross
  border displacements
• Existing legal frameworks already consider
  internal displacements
• However some cross-border displacements are not
  covered by any legal framework
• Displacement scenarios considered
• Hydro-meteorological disasters
• Zones designated by governments as being too
  high-risk
• Environmental degradation and slow onset
  disasters
• Sinking small island states and
• Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in
  essential resources.

10
Proposed categories

• Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to
  Environmental Refugees)
• People who flee the worst of an environmental
  impact on a permanent or temporary basis. They
  have to take refuge to save their lives
• Environmentally Forced Migrants
• People who have to leave to avoid the worst of
  environmental degradation. The urgency of flight
  is less
• Environmentally Motivated Migrants
• People who may leave a steadily deteriorating
  environment to pre-empt the worst

11
Preliminary definition framework
Slow onset hazards Loss of ecosystem services
Rapid onset hazards
Renaud et al. (2009) A Decision Framework for
Environmentally Induced Migration. Submitted to
International Migration Journal
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
1 m Sea level rise
Amazon Delta
Source CRESIS - http//www.cresis.ku.edu/research
/data/sea_level_rise/index.html
15
(No Transcript)
16
Example Rapid onset hazard slow or blocked
recovery

• 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Sri Lanka
• Severe impact on coastal areas
• Affected people livelihoods
• Destroyed infrastructures impacted ecosystems
• Enforcement of buffer zones slowed reconstruction
• Cause of movement environmental factor
• Potential cause of not returning political
  factor
• Yet we consider people to be Environmentally
  Forced Migrants

17
The five-pronged approach a call for
simultaneous actions

• Science
• Better understanding between the cause-effects
  mechanisms (including other push/pull factors)
• Who migrates, where and when?
• For creeping processes, identification of crisis
  tipping points (thresholds)
• Quantification of migration responses to the
  impact of environmental degradation
• Rapid onset vs. creeping processes
• Scenarios and policies
• Link migration to adaptation strategies to
  environmental and climate change
• Long term effects of resettlements
• Cooperation between all stakeholders

Source Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007)
Intersction No 5, UNU-EHS Bogardi, Warner (2008)
Here comes the flood. Nature 39-11
18
The five-pronged approach (contd)

• Awareness
• Raise knowledge-based public and political
  awareness and its social, economic, environmental
  dimensions
• Rectify the Northern bias
• Concept needs to be included in outcome of
  Copenhagen summit, UNCCD, IPCC
• Legislation
• Establish and implement a framework that
  recognises environmental migrants to protect
  adequately individuals displaced by environmental
  degradation processes
• Humanitarian aid
• Empower the United Nations system and
  humanitarian organizations to provide aid to
  environmental migrants
• Institutional
• Establish institutions that are able to assist
  the flux of environmental migrants

19
Conclusions

• Links between global environmental change, human
  security, migration and/or conflict can be real
  but
• They are not always systematic
• There is a need for more research in order to
  establish the multiple causality factors
• Governance plays a crucial role
• Limit causes of conflicts which are often
  multiple
• Allow space for traditional conflict resolution
  mechanisms
• Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and
  climate change
• This can only be achieved through a
  multi-stakeholder concerted approach (including
  in the Amazon basin)

20
Thank YouMerciObrigado

• UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
• Institute for Environment and Human Security
• (UNU-EHS)
• Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
• D-53113 Bonn, Germany
• Phone [phone]
• Fax [phone]
• E-Mail renaud_at_ehs.unu.edu
• www.ehs.unu.edu