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Principles and practicalities in measuring child poverty Miles Corak Measuring child benefits: measu

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Title: Principles and practicalities in measuring child poverty Miles Corak Measuring child benefits: measu


1
Principles and practicalities in measuring child
poverty - Miles CorakMeasuring child benefits
measuring child poverty - Michael Mendelson Sid
Frankel
  • Lars Osberg
  • Economics Department
  • Dalhousie University
  • Low Income, Poverty, and Deprivation
  • A Workshop sponsored and hosted by
  • Statistics Canada and the University of Toronto
  • June 5/6 2006

2
Different Focus Agreements, Disagreements
Omissions
  • Agreements
  • Poverty is relative to social norms of
    deprivation
  • Focus
  • Identify Poor Administration or Evaluation ?
  • Type I Type II errors of classification
  • Disagreements
  • Market Basket or of Median Income ?
  • Word Picture to motivate criterion ?
  • Summarization rate gap ?
  • Omissions
  • Time Risk, Human Rights Link

3
Poverty economic deprivation - want of the
necessities of life
  • not only those things which nature, but those
    things which the established rules of decency
    have rendered necessary to the lowest rank of
    people
  • Adam Smith (1776)
  • poverty is an absolute notion in the space of
    capabilities but very often it will take a
    relative form in the space of commodities or
    characteristics
  • Amartya Sen (1983)
  • MM MC agree

4
Capabilitiest Fit (commoditiest)
  • Poor - If Capabilities lt Minimum Necessary
  • Social Standards of time gt Minimum _at_ time t
  • Fit F (household size composition, location,
    health, disability, life skills, etc.)
  • Commodities alternative measures
  • Actual consumption or potential consumption
    (income) or specific necessities
  • Minimum Capabilities / Deprivation ??
  • Ambiguity of citizenship

5
Issue - to identify the poor or the number
deprivation of the poor ?
  • MM What is an adequate maximum child benefit
    for families with low incomes?
  • MMs issue administration of a particular
    program Canada Child Tax Benefit - implies
    specific information set (Xi)
  • Type I and Type II errors both matter
  • Good Predictor of need at individual level
    needed for effectiveness
  • Other Programs supposed to take care of
    special needs, adults

6
MC aim to define measure child poverty,
compare internationally define credible poverty
targets for society
  • Issue given all programs, macro cycle,
    demography, etc., how big is the problem?
  • Rate, average gap inequality of gaps
  • Note If Type I error Type II error, total is
    OK
  • Identification of deprivation of specific person
    not the issue
  • Statistical agency information set ?
    Administrative sets
  • Different criteria for success
  • MC objective to Minimize Type I Type II
  • MM objective to Minimize Type I Type II
  • MM Much discussion of classification errors

7
Practical Issues in Poverty Measurement
  • MM MC agree on dimensionality
  • accounting period year,
  • recipient unit family / household
  • measure after tax transfer money income
  • supplementation by specific item deprivation
  • MM MC disagree on poverty line
  • Relative Poverty or Budget based / Absolute
    ?
  • Implications for Initial Level and for Updating
  • LO Missing Issues
  • Summarization
  • Spell Durations
  • Human Rights link

8
MM1 Market Basket Budget
  • MM all relevant measures of low income or
    poverty are relative to contemporary living
    standards
  • Historical evidence - absolute poverty lines
    market basket budgets increase over time with
    average incomes
  • Non-transparent but appearance of objectivity?
  • Details of construction buried deep
  • wide range e.g. 18,342 to 30,402 for 4 in
    Toronto 1992
  • Major political plus iff source is credible
  • Major minus if change is suspiciously timed
  • Implicit link to norms, occasional, idiosyncratic
  • Not directly comparable across nations, time

9
MM2 reverse regression ???
  • MM proposes regressing the sample of families,
    with income as the dependent variable and the
    deprivation indicators as the independent
    variables, for families of different structures
  • Yi a0 a1D1 a2D2 ß1X1 ß2X2 ei
  • But complains With current techniques, we know
    only that renters have lower incomes than owners
  • Better estimate Prob(D1,D2 Yi ,X1,, X2 )
  • BUT no escape from arbitrary choice of minimum,
    necessary Probability of (D1,D2)

10
MC Explicitly Relative Poverty Line
  • Ho Established rules of decency change as
    society changes
  • Transparent link to current distribution of
    income
  • LIS standard ½ median equivalent income
  • European Union 60 median equivalent income
  • Explicitly transparent, standardized, comparable
    over time across countries
  • huge plus for policy evaluation
  • Two issues initial level updating
  • Choice ½ or 60 - ?
  • Rapid change in median can imply
    counter-intuitive changes
  • Update for price changes OR Update for median
    real income changes ?
  • Moving average can diminish volatility

11
When does the choice of updating method matter ?
  • Polling data since 1946 - social norms track
    median earnings
  • IF median real incomes change, updating method
    matters sometimes has been historically
    important
  • Canada 1960s, 1970s, USA in late 1990s, Ireland
    1990s
  • BUT since 1981, not much change in median real
    incomes in Canada

12
Absolute or Relative Poverty Line ? Not much
change in real median incomes !
13
How best to motivate choice of initial level of
poverty line ?
  • MM general word picture of standard of living
    at poverty line should drive number
  • How to change specific items over time?
  • How to defend general criteria as non-arbitrary?
  • MC ratio of potential consumption to median
    household income implies number
  • less than half deprivation
  • LO ½ has intuitive meaning
  • 50/50 equity norm ( solution to ultimatum
    game)
  • Individuals always apply Reality check
  • number drives examples, which drive credibility
  • Comparisons drive Concern
  • Over time is poverty getting worse ?
  • Across countries do other nations do better ?

14
Item Deprivations An Increasingly Important
Complement to povline
  • Communicable to Public
  • Human Rights Perspective gt specific goods
  • Convention on the Rights of the Child - includes
    health and nutrition, clothing, housing, and
    other goods, services and opportunities necessary
    for normal physical, mental and social
    development
  • Can see behind within family allocation of
    resources
  • to children, elderly, women.
  • Legal recognition of social norm of minimum
  • literature now emphasizes multi-dimensionality
  • Sens Capabilities Perspective
  • Social Exclusion Agenda
  • Social Wage or Cash purchase ? who cares?
  • Comparable across differing public-private policy
    mix

15
LICO orphan methodology
  • Relatively little discretionary income
  • LICO based on 20 E (food clothing house
    share of expenditure income, family size,
    rural/urban)
  • Year to year updating on CPI as per absolute
  • Rebased occasionally to community norms as per
    relative
  • Long time series useful !!!
  • for research politics
  • BIG MISTAKE to terminate until any replacement
    methodology has acquired credibility

16
MC - Principles for Measurement
  • (1) use income based measure of resources
  • (2) complement with small set of specific
    indicators
  • (3) draw poverty lines with regard to social
    norms
  • (4) establish a regular monitoring system and
    update poverty lines within a five year period
  • (5) set a both a backstop and a target by using
    fixed and moving poverty lines
  • (4) (5) less important if real growth in median
    is small
  • (6) offer leadership and build public support for
    poverty reduction.
  • Explicit Link to Human Rights Agenda would be
    useful

17
LO1 Annual Income ?
  • Year compromise accounting period
  • immediate needs are much more short term
  • long term impacts may be multi year
  • Implicit Assumption income is perfectly
    substitutable within period but zero between
    period substitutability
  • Consumption Income
  • smooth consumption despite low income ?
  • Borrow?
  • Beg from relatives ??
  • BUT credit access for most low income households
    is very poor families may be poor /or alienated

18
Why does poverty duration matter?
  • long-term poor are materially worse off than
    short-term poor
  • Income-based measures imperfect indicator of
    resources
  • Low current income but buffers access to
    credit, run down consumer durables, obtain
    transfers
  • long spells exhaust buffers to consumption
  • Psychological/Social impacts may increase with
  • individual duration
  • Social stereotypes may depend on the distribution
    of durations
  • High turnover/short spell process means more of
    nonpoor have been there

19
Why does immediate need matter ?
  • No groceries no credit no income immediate
    need in a week or less
  • Transitory child poverty can imply events
  • Events can have long run impacts
  • Eviction from housing ?
  • Forced mobility school attainment ?
  • Family stress gt Family breakup? Abuse ?
  • Traditional Welfare State agencies recognized
  • But new HK paradigm has firmly long run
    perspective
  • Much higher incidence (3x in SIPP) than in annual
    poverty measures

20
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21
LO2 Poverty Gap matters too !!Why not measure
Poverty Intensity ?
  • Sen-Shorrocks-Thon (SST) Index.
  • P (RATE ) (GAP ) (1G (X )).
  • Empirically inequality of poverty gaps 1G
    (X) is very nearly constant.
  • SST volume of Box, one dimension nearly
    constant.
  • Changes over time, differences across
    jurisdictions can be approximated by.
  • RATE x GAP FGT index (a 1)
  • Poverty Box in 2 dimensions.
  • Poverty Intensity proportional to area RATE X
    GAP.

22
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23
Variation over time mostly in rate, but misses
recent trend in poverty gap
24
Qualitative Conclusions Re Poverty Trends Often
Differ if consider gap
  • Relative poverty in early 1990s ?
  • Canada, UK, Sweden poverty rate gap disagree
  • US Germany indices agree
  • UK Absolute poverty line - poverty rate and
    poverty intensity change in opposite directions
    every time - 1974/79/86/91/95

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30
Communicability ?
  • The whole point of measuring poverty is to
    influence the policies that might affect poverty
  • A poverty index not used or understood by the
    public by policy makers is pointless
  • Humans not very good at deriving accurate
    relative size information from large tables of
    numbers.
  • Quite good when presented as area proportionate
    graphs

31
Equivalence scale - a matters
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