Week 7: Impacts on Regional Politics Lecture 18: The American War Against Terrorist Taliban

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Week 7 Impacts on Regional Politics Lecture
18 The American War Against (Terrorist) Taliban

• 17th March 2003 (Monday)

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Mid-term Examination (24th March, Monday)

• 30 of the Total Grade
• 700-830pm, Room To Be Announced
• Next Monday Class
• Covers Lectures 1-20
• 20 Multiple Choices
• 1 Short Questions with Choices
• Mainstream Questions. E.g. Why did 911 happen?
  Among the possible reasons, which are valid and
  which are overstated? Please draw the examples
  from the course, as well as from other sources
  that you know, and please answer in your own
  opinion.
• Question from Readings. E.g. Please discuss two
  of the assigned articles with contradictory
  perspectives, and analyze the origins of their
  respective perspective.
• Review Session this Week
• Please Bring All the Notes
• Take it Easy! o

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Logistics of Guest Lectures

• Israel Consul General Eli Avidar
• The Israeli-Palestinian Issue
• The Israeli Response to the Current World Order
• The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan Announced by
  US President George W Bush Last Saturday
• Lecture 19 19th March 2003 (Wednesday)
• PLEASE ARRIVE ON TIME at 11am SHARP
• Lunch (1200-100) Chinese Restaurant (????), G/F

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Structure of Lecture 18War Against Taliban

• Introduction
• Relationship Between Superpower Politics
  Regional Politics
• Afghanistan A Brief History
• Why Afghanistan in the 1st Wave of
  Anti-terrorism?
• Impacts of the War
• Conclusion
• What is the Name of the War?

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PART I IntroductionThe Warring Relationship
Between Superpower Politics Regional Politics
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On Behalf of the Superpower Proxy War

• War in a Remote Country of the Superpowers
• The Warring Parties are All Proxies of the
  Superpowers.
• Backstage Bosses Superpowers
• Advantages
• No Direct Conflict Between the Superpowers
• No Civilian Losses
• Diplomatic Flexibility

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The Angolan Civil War (1970s)

• FNLA USChina-back Angolan Guerilla
• MPLA Cuba-back Angolan Guerilla
• Proxys Proxy (USSRCubaMPLA)
• UNITA South Africa-back Angolan Guerilla
• Proxys Proxy (Anglo-American RightistsSouth
  AfricaUNITA)

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Proxy or Direct Involvement?

• Advantage of Direct Involvement Over Proxy War
• Towards the Iron Triangle (esp. Military and
  Industrialists)
• Targeting towards the Regional Order Vs towards
  another International Competitor
• Internal Politics Polling, Public Opinion and
  the Responsibility of Governments

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On Behalf of Host Countries Using the
Barbarians against Barbarians

• Qing Dynastys Strategy to Invite Foreign Powers
  to Have Fun in China
• yiyizhiyi (Using the Barbarians against
  Barbarians)
• The Danger of Being Overtaken
• Singapores Lee Kuan-Yew
• Invite British Interests to Stay to
  Counter-balance the Malaysian Interests
• Taiwans Chiang Kai-shek
• Invite USA to Station the
• Seventh Fleet to Safeguard
• against Communist
• Aggression

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PART IIAfghanistan A Brief History
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The Location of Afghanistan
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An Ignored Empire in the Past

• CNNs The History of Afghanistan.
  http//www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afgh
  anistan.timeline/index.html
• Have you heard of Afghanistan before 911?
• Chinas Vessel-state in the Qing Dynasty
• 19th Century Sphere of Interest between Russia
  (North) and Britain (South)

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Soviet Occupation (1979-1989)

• 1973 Deposition of Zahir Shah
• Civil War between Various Parties (Ethnic
  Minorities, Islamists Communists)
• 1978 USSR Sponsored a Coup
• 1979 Iranian Revolution
• Rise of Islamist Movement
• 1979 Counter-Coup in Afghanistan
• Fall of Communist Regime
• Soviet Invasion under Brezhnev
• Execution of the Counter-Coup Leader Amin
• Guerilla Resistance Never Stopped

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The Afghan Proxy War?

• Not a Proxy War at the Beginning
• Afghan Guerillas backed by Fellow Islamic
  Countries in the Counter-coup
• After the Soviet Invasion
• Mujahideen (Afghan Soldiers of the God, inc.
  Taliban and Laden) became an Anti-Communist
  Slogan
• Backed by Anti-Soviet Powers (USA, NATO, China)
• Backed by Islamic Powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia,
  Pakistan)
• All the Laden Allies!
• Western Technologies
• Islamic Ideologies

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The Soviet Failure

• International Backing of Mujahideen
• International Embargo
• The 1980 Moscow Olympic Games
• Local Geography and Tactics
• ? Over-conscious in the American Preparation
• Tactical Failure
• Military Vs Economic Aggression
• Imperial Overreach of USSR
• End of Détente in the Cold War
• Analogy of Computer War Games
• 1989 Soviet Withdrawal, as USSR was Collapsing

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PART III First Wave of Anti-TerrorismWhy
Afghanistan?
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The Taliban Regime (1996-2001)

• Warlord Era (1989-1996)
• Taliban students of Islamic Fundamentalism
• Pushtun, the Largest Tribe in Afghanistan
• Strict Disciplines, Committed Ideology
• Conquered Kabul 90 of Land at 1996
• Legitimate Regime in Afghanistan (1996-2001)
• The True Taliban and the Opportunist Taliban
• Foreign Allies
• Taught and Trained by Pakistan
• Economically Sponsored by KSA, UAE (the only 3
  Countries Recognized Taliban Before 911)
• Leader Mullah Omar, Mutawakki, Zaeef

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When Taliban turned Extremist

• Arrival of Osama Bin Laden
• The Puritan Dictatorship of Islam
• Sacred Plan to Destroy Buddhism
• Destruction of Buddhist Statutes of Bamyan
• Loss of Anti-American Sympathy
• The Chinese Rebirth Proposal
• Any Credit?
• The Cruel Stability
• The Taliban Talk on Campus

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Osama Bin Laden Mullah Omar

• Partnership During the War against USSR
• Assistance of Laden to Taliban
• Public Administration Expert
• Money from KSA
• Stronger Ideological Control
• Kabul as a Terrorist Base?
• Symbiotic Relationship or Mere Guest?
• The American Argument
• The Taliban Argument

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Bush Doctrine and Afghanistan

• Bush Doctrine Tailor-made for Taliban
• Those harboring terrorists will be treated as
  terrorists
• Against any Proxies for Taliban
• Laden Chief Suspect of Terrorism
• ? Taliban Hosting Laden
• ? Taliban Chief Suspect of Terrorism as well
• ? Must NOT be a Proxy War

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Rationales Beneath the Table?

• Long-term Planning Conspiracy Theory?
• Lack of Knowledge in USA on Afghanistan Before
  911
• Vs Long-planned War against Iraq
• Afghanistan Route to Oil Only, not Oil
• Immediate Planning?
• Embarrassment of No Enemies
• If Laden escaped elsewhere with no evidence to
  show his existence, what might America bomb? How
  could they react?
• Strategic Planning of Restructuring Regional
  Order was only Added During the War

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The Sudden Collapse of Taliban

• The War (Oct Dec 2002)
• Expected Duration
• 10 Years (Example of the Last Superpower USSR)
• 2 Months for USA
• Reasons behind the Sudden Collapse
• Military Reasons US Technology
• Assistance of the Northern Alliance
• Bribery of the Pushtun Leaders in Taliban
• Retreat of KSA/ UAE Money
• The Great Betrayal of Pakistan
• Anything Else?! the Rebirth of Taliban in the
  Future?

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PART IV Impacts of the War
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Assigned Readings

• Main Text
• William Maley The Reconstruction of
  Afghanistan (BD P.184-193)
• Supplementary Text
• Milton Bearden. Graveyard of Empire (HR
  P.83-96).
• CNNs The History of Afghanistan.
  http//www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afgh
  anistan.timeline/index.html

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The New Order in Afghanistan

• Coalition Government under Hamid Karzai
• Deposed Zahir Shah as the Symbolic Supreme
  Leader
• Convention of Loya Jirga
• Introduction of Reforms
• Complete Disappearance of Taliban, Mullah Omar
  and Osama Bin Laden?!

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Assessing the American Success in terms of
Anti-terrorism

• Eradication of a Terrorist Base YES
• Eradication of Al-Qaeda? NO
• Capture of Laden, Life or Dead? NO
• International Sympathy
• Shifting from the American side to the Arabic
  side
• More Terrorist Attacks after 911
• Indonesia, Russia, Kenya, Philippines
• If Afghanistan was not attacked, will there be
  more attacks or less? Safer or more dangerous?

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Assessing the American Success in terms of
Establishing a New Regional Order

• American Grand Oil Plan?
• Central Asian Republics ? Afghanistan ? Iraq ?
  Turkey ? Black Sea ? USA? Yes
• Retreat of Russian and Islamic Influence in
  Afghanistan? Not Sure
• Afghanistan became an American Lake
• Starting Point to Expand in the Region
• Domino Effects
• Bushs Attempt to Create More Afghanistans
• Neighboring Countries Wary of their Easy
  Collapses

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The Transition of American Policies

• Before the War against Taliban
• More Cautious, More Strategic

• After the East Victory
• More Ambitious, More Barbaric

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Boom Vs Doom in the New Afghanistan
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Impacts on Afghanistan The Bright Side

• Freedom of Women
• Sima Samar Deputy Premier of Afghanistan
• Education for All Students
• Human Entertainment
• The Afghani National Soccer Team in the Asian
  Olympic Games
• International Attention the Chance to Raise
  Donation

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Impacts on Afghanistan The Doom Side

• Return to the Warlord Era
• Urban Order Vs Rural Disorder
• Assassinations of Ministers
• Assassination Attempts against President Karzai
• Continuation of Poverty
• Still the Opium Empire
• A Full American Protégé
• Personal Guards of Hamid Karzal Who Are They?
• Who are Maintaining Order at Kabul?
• Or, is America being Used as a Barbarian
  against the Barbaric Taliban?

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PART V Conclusion What is the Name of the
War?
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Name of the War

• War of Anti-Terrorism? (USA)
• War of American Imperialism? (Laden)
• War of American Conspiracy? (Conspiracy Theory)
• War of Afghani Rebirth? (US Humanitarians)

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Name of the War (II)

• Civil War assisted by the American Follies?
  (Northern Alliance)
• War of the nth Anti-aggression Campaign of
  Afghanistan? (Afghan history)
• War of No Meanings?
• What is the Name of the War against Iraq?

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The End
Thank you for attending