Title: Work, life and the future: where are we going
1Work, life and the future where are we going?
- Frances Cairncross
- Exeter College, Oxford
- FEMB, Rotterdam
- June 24th 2005
2How to take a long view
Exeter College, founded 1314. Palmer's Tower,
built 1432
3This presentation looks at...
- The changing world environment
- The changing business environment
4Prediction can be difficult...
- Television will never be a serious competitor
for radio because people must sit and keep their
eyes glued on a screen the average American
family hasnt time for it. - The New York Times, reporting the 1939
Worlds Fair
5Asked in 1898 what he thought would be the
decisive factor in modern history, Otto von
Bismarck repliedThe fact that North Americans
speak English.
But not impossible!
6The changing world -
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10The changing world -
- A new balance of power
- Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
11Four views of the futureWorld population
projections 2000-2050
Source UN
12Globally, more old, fewer young
13Fewer workers, more old folk over 65s as of
workforce
14The changing world -
- A new balance of power
- Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
- More competition for natural resources
15The coming scramble for oil Global oil-import
dependency
16Long-term projection of oil demand
M bpd. Source IMF
17The worlds growing water demands
18The changing world -
- A new balance of power
- Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
- More competition for natural resources
- Smaller government (but still interfering!)
19Flat tax Eastern Europes bright idea
- Estonia
- Lithuania
- Latvia
- Russia
- Serbia
- Slovakia
- Romania
20The changing world -
- A new balance of power
- Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
- More competition for natural resources
- Smaller government (but still interfering!)
- New technologies
21The 20th century was changed by
22And in this century
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24The Company of the Future
- Technology shapes companies
- - Most people expected too much too soon
- - The big changes are within companies -
- - and between companies
25The first managerial revolution
26The second managerial revolution
27Communications technology
- Makes markets work better
- Increases access to information
- Forces global thinking
- Makes networks matter
- Creates new products
28The changing world for business
29New working patterns
30Factory, 2005-style
31New working patterns
- The office as factory
- The office as club
- The home as production unit
32and also
- New kinds of job (did your university train web
designers?) - More part-time, more all-the-time
- Top talent or no talent
33Part-timers as of all workers
34The changing world for business
- New working patterns
- New consumer power
35New ways to shop
36The consumers invention
37The changing world for business
- New working patterns
- New consumer power
- New business opportunities
38One way to earn a living
Work, Fun, and a Career You will LOVE!
39The mini-multinational
40The changing world for business
- New working patterns
- New consumer power
- New business opportunities
- New competitors
41The great hand-over
42Not everyone is Dell!
43Death of distance
44The worlds factory
45The worlds office
IT and BPO employment in India
Forecast
Source NASSCOM
46And what of the Netherlands?
- An admirably open economy
- but part of the Eurozone
47New Dutch Disease?
48Consumers unconfident
49Your clever secret
International student assessments PISA scores,
OECD 2003
50The Future?
51Work, life and the future where are we going?
- Frances Cairncross
- Exeter College, Oxford
- FEMB, Rotterdam
- June 24th 2005