Climate change: an European perspective - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Climate change: an European perspective PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 12e2c9-NzNhN



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Climate change: an European perspective

Description:

'ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGES? CONSEQUENCES OF ... Balancing mitigation and adaptation: 'Avoiding the unmanageable, managing the unavoidable, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:49
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 36
Provided by: mei43
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Climate change: an European perspective


1
Climate change an European perspective
  • Andrus Meiner, EEA
  • 1st International ASTRA Conference
  • ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGES?
  • CONSEQUENCES OF THE WINTER STORM 2005
  • May 18-20, 2006 Klaipeda, Lithuania

2
Role of EEA in mitigation and policy adaptation
strategies
  • The European Environment Agency is the EU body
    dedicated to providing sound, independent
    information on the environment in support to
    environmental policy makers and for the general
    public
  • EEA is publishing reports on GHG emission trends
    and mitigation, but recently on climate change
    impacts (2004, new 2008), vulnerability and
    adaptation (2005)
  • In 2006 EEA will report on state of environment
    of the coastal areas, that in limited scope also
    addresses the climate change issues (framing the
    issue)

3
Air temperature
  • Global temperature 0.7 ?0.2 C over past 100
    years. Projected (19902100) 1.45.8 C
  • Top 5 warmest years worldwide 2005, 1998, 2002,
    2003, 2004
  • Europe mean annual 0.95 C Summer 0.7C
    Winter 1.1C. Projected 2.06.3C

Data-sources IPCC, WMO, CRU
4
European summer temperature 2003
  • Very likely that greenhouse gases have doubled
    the risk of summer temperatures as hot as 2003
  • Such a heat wave is now four times more likely.
    By 2050 every other summer could be as hot as 2003

Data-sources IPCC, WMO, CRU, Stott et. al. (in
Nature, 2004)
5
Projected precipitation changes in 2080
  • Precipitation is projected to increase in
    northern Europe but decrease in southern Europe
  • More frequent droughts and intense precipitation
    events are likely

Data-source Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2
scenario
6
Water resources
  • Temperature rise and changing precipitation are
    likely to exacerbate the water shortage in
    southern and south-eastern (increasing demand for
    irrigation in agriculture) and eastern Europe
    (increasing demand for households and industry)

Data source Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001. Hadley
Centre HadCM3 model, baseline scenario
7
Vulnerable sectors
  • Ecosystems and biodiversity
  • Agriculture and forestry
  • Water resources, flooding, water quality
  • Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries
  • Tourism
  • Energy (supply and demand)
  • Built environment, infrastructure
  • Human health
  • Land management, regional planning
    (cross-cutting)

8
Vulnerable regions in Europe
9
Vulnerable regions
  • River flooding events 1998-2005
  • About 100 (river) floods more than 700
    fatalities, a million people affected and 25
    billion EUR in insured economic losses
  • Coastal zones
  • Sea level is projected to rise for centuries
    (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
  • 9 of all European coastal zones are below 5 m
    elevation (85 for NL, BE), potentially
    vulnerable to sea level rise and related
    inundations
  • Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
  • Future increase in storm frequency and intensity
    (uncertainties)

Data-source EEA, 2006, unpublished
10
Coastal zones
  • Sea level is projected to rise for centuries
    (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
  • 9 of all European coastal zones are below 5 m
    elevation (85 for NL, BE), potentially
    vulnerable to sea level rise and related
    inundations
  • Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
  • Future increase in storm frequency and intensity
    (uncertainties)

Data-source EEA, 2006 (forthcoming)
11
Economic losses from weather related events
  • Costs of weather and climate related events
    double each decade
  • Since 1990, insured losses are on average 16
    billion annually
  • 2004 was costliest 40 billion.
  • Annual costs of European flooding could increase
    by 100-120 billion by the 2080s on top of the
    6.5-8 billion paid today

12
Balancing mitigation and adaptation Avoiding
the unmanageable, managing the unavoidable,
  • EU Council target of limiting global temperature
    increase to 2C above pre-industrial levels
    needs global emission reduction of 15 up to 50
    by 2050 (from 1990 levels)
  • Some global and European climate change is
    inevitable due to historical built up of
    greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and time lags
    in climate and ocean systems
  • EU Council recognised the need to prepare for and
    adapt to climate change in both developing and
    developed countries, to complement mitigation
    policies
  • Addressing climate change has costs, but also
    brings benefits and opportunities e.g. for
    innovation

13
Substantial emission reductions are needed 60
to 80 by 2050 (developed countries)
The EU target of max 2 C temperature increase
requires at least stabilising at 550 ppm CO2
equivalent. Most likely a lower target is
needed, for example of 450 ppm. That would mean a
80 emission reduction by 2050 for developed
countries (from 1990 levels).
14
Various EU Member States are not on track to
their Kyoto targets
15
Faster growth is needed to achieve the EU goal
for electricity from renewable sources
EU indicative targetof 12 by 2010
Scenario projections
16
Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce
GHG emissions
  • EU CO2 emissions trading scheme
  • Electricity from renewable energy
  • Combined heat and power (CHP)
  • Energy efficiency (buildings, industry,
    household devices, cars)
  • Biofuels in transport
  • Recovery of methane from landfills
  • Reduction of fluorinated gases
  • Remove potentially environmentally harmful
    subsidies
  • Research and development
  • Raise awareness

17
Conclusions on mitigation
  • More efforts are required to reach the EU Kyoto
    target
  • Substantial further reductions in global GHG
    emissions are needed to achieve long term targets
    and avoid unacceptable impacts
  • Strong global action is needed, while the EU has
    to take its responsibility and continue taking a
    leading role
  • To succeed everyone has to contribute
    governments, industries, private persons,
    researchers, NGOs, media

18
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
exposure
sensitivity
19
Adaptation strategies at national level
  • National adaptation strategies are currently
    under preparation in Denmark, Finland, France,
    Germany and the UK
  • Adaptation measures are included in National
    Climate Change Action Plans of several countries
  • The latest Spatial Policy of the Netherlands
    recognises the need for adaptation to climate
    change in spatial planning
  • Several countries (e.g. Finland, Hungary,
    Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, UK) are
    undertaking comprehensive multi-sector national
    assessments of climate change
  • In many EEA member countries (e.g., Austria,
    France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy,
    Switzerland), adaptation measures are taking
    place in the context of natural hazard
    prevention, environment protection, and
    sustainable resource management

20
National adaptation strategies and local
variations
  • Assessments of regional and sector adaptation
    needs still rare
  • More local variations and higher relevance to
    regional and local conditions is needed, because
    this is where practical management is happening

21
EU policy developments, adaptation
  • Many EU policies, including environmental, do not
    yet address climate change impacts
  • Commission communication on post-2012 (Feb. 2005)
    and Environment Councils (2005) mentioned
    adaptation, complementary to mitigation
  • Commission Communication (2004) on an EU
    framework on flood risk mapping. Proposed Floods
    Directive in 2005
  • ECCP II started in October 2005, including a
    working group on adaptation, 10 sectoral/issue
    meetings April-June 2006, Green Paper in Nov 2006

22
Living by the sea
Very different and unequal situations in
socio-economic terms
Expected climate changes pose a real challenge to
the population at sea to adapt, especially to sea
level rise
23
Focus Coastal systems
  • Coastal zones comprise both sea and land side
  • sea/land interface
  • catchment-coastal continuum
  • natural flows along the coasts
  • Regarding marine and coastal areas most of
    climate change research is addressing SLR and SST
    changes and their impacts

24
What impacts can climate change have on the
coastal system given the existing anthropogenic
pressures to the coasts?
Often a region or sector is already under
pressure today
25
25
Built up in the distance of the coast
Atlantic
by Regional Sea Basins
Baltic
Black Sea
20
Mediterranean
North Sea
15
of built up
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Distance to the coast (Km)
26
Historic land use change and impact on coastal
system
  • Wide conversion of forest and grassland to
    agricultural area in 19th and 20th century
  • This land use change was accompanied by massive
    soil erosion
  • But development of river dams and abstraction of
    water has reduced sediment discharges to the
    coast
  • On a global scale, some 25 of the current
    sediment load from land to the coastal zones is
    trapped behind reservoirs.
  • In Europe, almost all main rivers are dammed. For
    ex. River Ebro (Northern Spain) delivers 1 of
    solid discharge volume of 1900.
  • Sediment deficit at the coast increase
    vulnerability to climate change impacts (SLR,
    storm surges, coastal erosion)

27
Result weakened coastal systems
  • Diversity of environmental and socio-economic
    conditions at the coast create regional
    differentiation of vulnerability
  • The degree of adaptation to climate impacts is
    determined by the adaptive capacity (autonomous
    and planned) of the human-environment system
  • The capacity of coastal system for adjustment is
    small if the resilience of coastal system is
    reduced or necessary resources for adaptation are
    lacking

28
Information needs at the European level
  • Higher spatial resolution and more frequent
    updates that allow target local variations and
    have higher relevance to regional and local
    conditions
  • Understanding of causal links - better
    distinction of climate change impacts from other
    anthropogenic impacts (e.g. eutrophication and
    algae blooms, coastal and open sea)
  • Uncertainty of time horizon for forecasts
  • There is still little evidence so far for direct
    sea level rise
  • It is difficult to realize that sea level will
    rise for centuries
  • Often indirect CC mechanisms are more pronounced
  • Status of ecosystems - data on variability and
    resilience of ecosystems (e.g. water quality,
    coastal habitats)
  • More integration with in situ monitoring of
    nature and with social and economic datasets to
    improve risk assessments

29
Bridging the gap between science and practice
  • More analysis of current land use and sediment
    management practices at our coasts (non-climatic
    issues)
  • Combine the results with predicted impacts of
    climate change
  • Improved interface from climate change research
    to coastal management
  • More relevant adaptation strategies
  • Broader vision of integrated coastal management
    in to coastal engineering
  • Reduced vulnerability to climate change impacts?

30
What more is needed?
  • Policy change living with natural processes
  • Legislation is only beginning to recognize
    ecosystem approach and full threats of coastal
    squeeze
  • Spatial planning for coasts is only emerging
    (river basin, coastal and flood risk management
    plans)
  • Cross-sectoral integration on coasts to be
    realized (potential for SEA directive
    implementation)
  • Coastal protection still dominated by hard
    solutions or beach nourishment
  • Multi-scale adaptation EU, national and
    local/regional level
  • Reflect diversity of EU coasts and be appropriate
    to decision making of the coastal zone in
    question

31
Current adaptation measures reactive or
proactive?
  • Regional and local governmental organizations,
    NGOs and the private sector have started to adopt
    new policies, regulations and standards
    accounting for climate change (role of insurance
    sector)
  • Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of
    dealing with climate extremes such as flood
    defence
  • Many adaptation actions have been initiated
    because of the substantial losses from extreme
    weather events in recent years
  • Policies and measures designed to address
    long-term climate change impacts have not been
    developed to the same extent

32
Challenges for integration of adaptation into
other policies and measures
  • Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence
    in climate change scenarios of extreme events at
    high spatial resolution)
  • Policy action at regional/local level (need for
    stakeholder involvement gaps in knowledge on
    potential adaptation policies and measures lack
    of resources)
  • Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments
    (gaps in knowledge how to identify win-win or
    no-regret options, justified under many
    plausible scenarios)
  • Coordination between sectors (how to enhance
    efficiency and effectiveness of measures with
    many organisations involved)

33
Possible adaptation framework
  • Define the overall (European/national) policy
    objectives
  • Determine priority sectors for adaptation action
  • Propose decision making criteria
  • Assess priority risks or opportunities (in each
    sector)
  • Identify potential adaptation options
  • Appraise and propose adaptation options (high
    priority, win-win and no-regret)
  • Define adaptation targets and indicators
  • Integrate and/or link to policy framework at the
    EU, national and sectoral level
  • Implement policies/measures
  • Monitor, review and revise if needed

34
Conclusions
  • Need to develop policy framework at European,
    national and regional/local levels
  • Integrate (mainstream) adaptation into other
    policies and measures
  • Enhance research (EU and national) on
    vulnerability assessments (including scenarios),
    good practices and costs and benefits, with
    stakeholder involvement
  • Improve management practices for non-climatic
    reasons, as potential to reduce vulnerability to
    climate change impacts
  • Exchange experiences amongst relevant
    stakeholders (public and private
    EU/national/regional/local)
  • Communicate risks clearly to those affected and
    the actions they can take

35
Thank you for attention,More information on EEA
web page http//eea.europa.eu The
European Environment Agency is the EU body
dedicated to providing sound, independent
information on the environment
About PowerShow.com