Uncertainty and the Expansion of International Organizations

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Uncertainty and the Expansion of International
Organizations

• Megan Shannon
• University of Iowa

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Research Question

• Why do International Organizations (IO) expand
  their membership?
• How does expansion affect the level of
  integration within an IO?
• What effects does expansion has on the stability
  of an IO?

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Assumptions

• Weak pareto-optimality
• IO expansion increases opportunism and governance
  costs

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Theory I

• The existence of IO expansion depends on the
  costs and benefits of this expansion (due to
  opportunism and governance costs)

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Theory II

• If the benefits outweigh the costs, then IOs
  would expand the IO
• If the costs outweigh the benefits, then IO still
  expands, but only if the IO is also deepened.

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Theory II

• If the benefits outweigh the costs, then IOs
  would expand the IO
• If the costs outweigh the benefits, then IO still
  expands, but only if the IO is also deepened.
• failure to deepen the IO would lead to IO
  instability

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Theoretical Implications

• IOs can mitigate the costs and uncertainty of
  going wider by asking for deeper commitment from
  all members.
• IO members who most favor deepened integration
  also favor expansion or vice versa.
• Some members may use a particular amount of
  uncertainty to extract increased commitment from
  the IO.

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Empirics

• How to create a measure that captures the diverse
  functions and levels of integration of IOs?
• How to construct a measure of costs and benefits
  of IOs?

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Open Questions to discuss

• Are there theoretical models relevant to the
  purpose of this project?
• How to define/measure instability?
• Does the formation of IOs affect the decision of
  expansion?

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Suggestions

• Costs and benefits
• Measurement of Deepening-Widening
• Deepening and Uncertainty
• Bargaining models
• Formation - Deepening