Risk Compensation and the management of road safety 22 February 2005 Institute of Transport and logi

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Risk Compensationand the management of road
safety22 February 2005Institute of Transport
and logisticsUniversity of Sydneyjohn.adams_at_ucl
.ac.uk
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Managing risk its not rocket science
its more complicated
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Three kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera need a microscope to see it and a
scientific training to understand
Scientists dont know or cannot agree e.g.
BSE/vCJD, global warming,
low-level radiation, pesticide
residues, HRT,
mobile phones, passive smoking, stock market .
e.g. climbing a tree, riding a bike, driving,
car
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A successful risk manager

• Risk management is
• a balancing act
• instinctive
• intuitive
• modified by culture

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Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Perception of risks
Accidents
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Risk compensation
more dangerous therefore slower
tyres - less grip
less efficent brakes
reduced down pressure - less grip
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The risk thermostat
Money, power, love, glory, food, sex, rushes of
adrenaline, control ...
Money, health, life, status, self-esteem, embarra
ssment, jail, loss of control ...
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Risk perceived through science

• a Richter scale for risk would involve taking a
  series of common situations of varying risk to
  which people can relate (DTI)
• a simple measure of risk to that people can use
  as a basis for decision making (RSS)

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A Richter Scale for Risk?
Risk of an individual dying in any one year as a
result of a road accident
18000 (On the State of the Public Health 1995)
116000 (Road Accidents Great Britain 1995)
Personality disorder vs normal 10 X
Young male vs middle-aged female 100 X
134 X 3am Sunday vs 10am Sunday
20 2.5 times over limit vs sober
2 680 000
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• I exaggerate
• the four variables are not independentthere are
  more disturbed drunken young men on the road at
  3am Sunday
• or do I?
• the four numbers in the equation are all
  averages.
• Further variables must be invoked to account for
  their variances,
• is the carbig X new X equipped with ABS brakes X
  insured ...?
• is the roadslippery X well-lit X straight ... ?
  
• is the driver sleepy X angry X on drugs X
  short-sighted ...?
• is the ... .... ?

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Bottom loop bias
Propensity to take risks
Rewards
Balancing behaviour
Reducing Risks - Protecting People
Perception of risks
Accidents
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Perceptual Filters
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Bad luck
Safety
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www.acm.ab.ca/safety/images/ fault-tree.gif
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hindsight
the present
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Culpable negligence
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Whom do you trust?
Fatalists
Egalitatians
Individualist
Hierarchist
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More anonymous, less convivial
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Less child friendly
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More dangerous
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The lorry driver and the cyclist
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69 of Americans believe in angels. 46 have
their own guardian angel.
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New Scientist 22 January 2005