Energy Future How Do We Move To A Sustainable Energy World

1
Energy FutureHow Do We Move To A Sustainable
Energy World?

• B. K. Richard
• bk_at_bishoppeakgroup.net
• for
• EE 563, Winter Quarter 2004
• California Polytechnic State University

2
Is there an energy issue? A crisis?
In the context of sustainability

• What are the dominant concerns?
• What are the dominant solutions?

3
Outline

• What is the context for our energy future?
• What are the issues?
• What options are best?
• What can an EE do about it?

4
Disclaimer

• The speaker has no formal training in energy
  policy or on the specific technologies involved
• At best, this is a simple, partial thread through
  a mass of complex data, ideas, and opinions
• The briefing is a systems engineering view
• Try to understand the highest leverage items or
  trends
• Attack the hard stuff and come up with a good
  enough answer
• 50-100 years into the future is a long time or
  Its hard to make predictions, especially about
  the future (Yogi Berra).

5
Reminder

• Its easy to see the downside, the looming
  problem
• Its harder to see the innovation and
  breakthrough
• When there is a need, we are incredibly
  resourceful in producing solutions
• They will solve this problem

They is us!
6
Measures

• This briefing will attempt to put energy units
  into Quads to match up with the approach in
  Energy Revolution, Geller.
• A Quad is 1015 BTU
• 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12
  Quads
• A barrel is 42 gallons
• 1 TW.h 3.61015 Joules
• See http//www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversion
  s_e.pdf for all kinds of conversions and energy
  contents.
• For two key points of reference
• The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001
  (approximately 70 percent of it came from outside
  the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)
• It is anticipated that the U.S. will use
  approximately 139 Quads in 2025 (this is the
  Energy Information Administration (DOE)
  reference estimate)

7
Measures

• This briefing will attempt to put energy units
  into Quads to match up with the approach in
  Energy Revolution, Geller.
• A Quad is 1015 BTU
• 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12
  Quads
• A barrel is 42 gallons
• 1 TW.h 3.61015 Joules
• See http//www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversion
  s_e.pdf for all kinds of conversions and energy
  contents.
• For two key points of reference
• The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001
  (approximately 70 percent of it came from outside
  the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)
• It is anticipated that the U.S. will use
  approximately 139 Quads in 2025 (this is the
  Energy Information Administration (DOE)
  reference estimate)

Key Numbers To Remember
8
Major References

• Nathan Lewis, National Academy of Sciences
  papers.
• Energy Information Administration, DoE.
  www.eia.doe.gov
• IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001, Morrocco.
• Wim Turkenberg, Utrecht University, Netherlands.
  (Talk 2002).
• UCEI (www.ucei.berkeley.edu)
• Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project,
  http//gcep.stanford.edu/
• Rist, Curtis, Why well never run out of oil,
  Discover, June 1999
• Goodstein, David, Running Out Of Gas, 2004
• Yergin, Daniel, Imagining a 7-a-Gallon Future,
  New York Times, April 4, 2004
• The Solar Fraud, Howard C, Hayden, 2001

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
9
Context
10
Energy Future Context

• Fossil fuel is plentiful (and inexpensive)
• Oil supply is in 10s of years (Lewis 40-80)
• Gas supply is over 100 years (Lewis 200-500)
• Coal supply is several 100 years (Lewis
  2002000)
• 85 of the worlds energy is supplied by fossil
  fuel
• No new nuclear energy generation capacity has
  been added in decades
• Renewable energy sources contribute an extremely
  small portion of the overall world requirement
• Economic development has been and continues to be
  dependent on cheap energy
• Some correlate population with energy production

Nathan Lewis reference is cited frequently.
11
More Facts

• 20 of U.S. Oil comes from the Persian Gulf
• 40 comes from OPEC nations
• 70 of U.S. oil from outside the U.S.
• U.S. consumes 26 of the worlds total petroleum
• China is next with 10
• Russia uses 7
• Oil prices
• Peak at 59.41 in 1980 (in 1996 dollars)
• Retail energy price of gasoline in Japan (3.40)
  and Germany (3.35).
• Per capita consumption of energy
• U. S. 342 BTU Germany/Japan 170 China 30

Source EIA
12
Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998
Gas
Hydro
Renew
World Total 12.8 TW U.S. 3.3 TW (99
Quads) (10 Electricity) (15
Electricity)
Source Nathan Lewis.
13
Energy Reserves
RsvReserves ResResources
Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr)
Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)
Oil 40-78 51-151 Gas
68-176 207-590 Coal 224 2160
Source Nathan Lewis.
14
Oil Reserve Decline?
Source ExxonMobil
This graph is based on an Ultimate Recovery of
liquids (conventional oil plus natural gas
liquids) of 2000 Gb and Non-Conventional oil of
750 Gb. from Dr. Jean Laherrère, 2000
http//www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm
15
Oil Has No Dominant Producer
Source EIA
16
Gas Reserves1.6 - 5 Trillion Barrels Of Oil
Equivalent (60 180 year supply)
These reserve numbers come from the Discover
Magazine article, cited earlier
17
Where Does Energy Go?
18
Production Cost of Electricity
(in the U.S. in 1997, cents per kWh)
22
5.5
3.9
3.6
2.1
2.3
coal
nuclear
gas
oil
wind
solar
Nuclear Energy Institute, American Wind Energy
Association, American Solar Energy Society
Source Nathan Lewis.
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Cost of new technologies have declined steeply,
10
1
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
0.1
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source IEA
20
Source Nathan Lewis
Population Growth to 10 - 11 Billion People in
2050
Per Capita GDP Growth at 1.6 yr-1
Energy consumption per Unit of GDP declines at
1.0 yr -1
21
Total Primary Power vs Year Prediction
1990 12 TW 2050 28 TW
Source Nathan Lewis
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Issues
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Energy Future Issues

• A high rate of energy consumption has
  environmental impact
• Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of
  side effects
• Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting
• There may be increased potential for sudden,
  unpredictable change
• Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious
  direct health side effects, predominantly
  respiratory illnesses, mercury poisoning, .
• Some respected forecasters predict a peak of
  production within 10-20 years (and related new
  era economics dealing with supply/demand)
• Key energy producing countries have their own
  domestic agenda and issues
• May not be a collaborative or predictable
  supplier
• There is a Catch-22 problem regarding new
  technology and infrastructure (i.e. getting
  investment before a crisis)

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A Piece Of The Data Continuum
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The Keeting CurveMauna Loa, CO2 Concentrations
Recent concerns have surfaced about the rate
accelerating
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A 1000 Year Look At Constituents Of The Earths
Atmosphere
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Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the
next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in
the last 440,000 yrs
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
(BP 1950)
28
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Source IPCC
29
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
Source IPCC
30
Sea Levels have risen
Source IPCC
31
Changes in temperature have been associated with
changes in physical and biological systems

• Examples include
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness
  in summer
• non-polar glacier retreat
• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding
  season for plants and animals in the Northern
  Hemisphere
• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of
  plants, birds, fish and insects earlier spring
  migration and later departure of birds in the
  Northern Hemisphere
• increased incidence of coral bleaching

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Shrinking Polar Cap 2002
Satellite data show the area of the Arctic Ocean
covered by sea ice in September 2002. This figure
shows lower concentrations of ice floes than
average for the period 1987-2001 in blue, and
higher concentrations in yellow. The lavender
line indicates a more typical ice extent (the
median for 1987-2001). The white circle at the
North Pole is the area not imaged by the
satellite sensor.
Source NSIDC News, http//nsidc.org/seaice/news.
html
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Mount Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Shrinks Soot?
February 17, 1993
February 21, 2000

• 80 of ice is gone (since 1900) formed 11000
  years ago
• Scientists (Hansen and Nazarenko) are finding
  warm winters rather than warm summers to be the
  cause
• Models tend to show that 25 of warming is caused
  by soot on (sometimes very heavy) snow

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The IPCC Makes The Case For Human Inducement Of
Climate Change
Source IPCC
35
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st
century are two to four times the pre-industrial
level
Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the
levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm
Source IPCC
36
Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide will require significant emissions
reductions(Target 550 PPM is a general
scientist goal)
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Is there potential for environmental catastrophe?

• Examples
• West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse
• Rapid species isolation and extinction
• Disruption of the themohaline circulation

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West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse?

• See http//www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries
  /wais.htm
• Most researchers believe this to be very
  unlikely, but
• 5 chance of happening, per study led by British
  Antarctic Survey
• One meter ocean level rise within a century 5
  meters over several hundred years.
• Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering
  Greenland.

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Will there be mass extinctions?

• From Nature, January 8, 2004 Many plant and
  animal species are unlikely to survive climate
  change
• 1537 of a sample of 1,103 land plants and
  animals would eventually become extinct as a
  result of climate changes expected by 2050.
• For some of these species there will no longer be
  anywhere suitable to live.
• Others will be unable to reach places where the
  climate is suitable.
• A rapid shift to technologies that do not produce
  greenhouse gases, combined with carbon
  sequestration, could save 1520 of species from
  extinction.

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The themohaline circulation could be disrupted by
climate change
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The Big Picture

• To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the
  pre-industrial level and one that produces
  roughly 2-4o C. of temperature rise) would
  require approx. 20 TW of carbon free power.
• In other words, the projection is that we will
  need as much as twice as much carbon-free power
  by 2050 than the total power produced, by all
  sources, globally, at present.

Source Nathan Lewis
42
Long Time Periods Are Required For CO2 Pulse To
Be Absorbed
Source IPCC
43
Qualitative Impact of A Carbon Pulse
Source IPCC
44
The cost of compliance increases with lower
stabilization levels
Trillions of US
Source IPCC
45
Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the
assumed emissions baseline
Source IPCC
46
Political Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated
Change

• Examples
• Turbulence in Saudi Arabia or in other major oil
  producers players
• Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy have
  not countries
• China becoming the most powerful energy
  negotiator
• Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines
• Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure
• Unexpectedly high costs of recovery after
  production peak

47
Key Oil Produces Have Potentially Unstable
Governments
Source EIA (BKR opinion on stability)
48
The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows

• Energy is capital intensive
• Poor countries do not have the resources
• Impact burn down the forests.
• 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g.
  wood).
• Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26
  percent (vs a few percent in U.S.) of GDP.
• Inequality between rural and urban.
• Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban
  areas.

Source Geller
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Pollution Effects

• 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality
  issues each year.
• Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr.
  (vs 1M lost to traffic fatalities)
• EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from
  pollution (vs. 40,000 traffic deaths)
• 5 of deaths in urban areas are air quality
  related.
• Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in
  China, costing 50B and 7 of GDP
• Ontario estimates that pollution costs 1B in
  medical/hospital fees and absenteeism for 11.9M
  people
• Scaled to the U.S. this would be about 30B/yr.
• Mercury poisoning is now part of the public
  debate because of proposed EPA power plant
  licensing rule changes.

Source EPI
50
Barriers For New Technologies

• Lack of money or financing
• Misplaced incentives
• Pricing and tax barriers
• Political obstacles
• Regulatory and utility barriers
• Limited supply infrastructure for energy
  efficient products
• Quality problems (new technology doesnt live up
  to claims)
• Insufficient information and training

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Options
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Energy Future Options(An SEs Sample Of Topics)

• Options for sources
• Reduced Carbon fossil fuel
• Renewables
• Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
• Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
• Distributed generation
• Spinning reserve
• Options for policies

53
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• The importance of Natural Gas
• A solar future
• Nuclear?
• Tidal?

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Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix
M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881
Source Nathan Lewis
55
LNG

• Worldwide proven reserves of Natural Gas 5500 T
  ft3
• 1999 84 T ft3 total, worldwide production
• U.S. production of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
  has plateaued.
• New U.S. electric power plants are largely
  natural gas
• Prediction by 2020, 25 of the worlds energy
  will be natural gas
• Consumption
• 1997 LNG 4 T ft3
• 1999 LNG 5.4 T ft3 shipped
• 2010 LNG U.S. will go from .5 T ft3 to 2.2 T ft3

Source Arabicnews.com, 12/19/2003
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LNG
http//www.kryopak.com/LNGships.html
LNG requires a heavy infrastructure for cooling
and transportation. This is currently capacity
limited.
http//www.energy.ca.gov/lng/
57
Coal Gasification And Sequestering

• Great Plains Coal Gasification Plant (North
  Dakota)
• From coal to the equivalent of natural gas
• Sequester carbon dioxide into oil fields to
  assist in pumping
• Oil field operator pays for Carbon Dioxide

http//www.dakotagas.com/
58
Renewable Energy Potential
Recall that the world needs 20 TW of carbon-free
energy by 2050.
Source Turkenburg, Utrecht University
59
Solar Energy Potential

• Facts
• Theoretical 1.2x105 TW solar energy potential
  (1.76 x105 TW striking Earth 0.30 Global mean
  albedo)
• Practical 600 TW solar energy potential of
  instantaneous power
• 50 TW - 1500 TW depending on land fraction etc.
  WEA 2000
• Onshore electricity generation potential of 60
  TW (10 conversion efficiency)
• Photosynthesis 90 TW

Source Nathan Lewis
60
Solar Thermal Energy Potential

• Roughly equal global energy use in each major
  sector
• transportation
• residential
• transformation
• industrial
• World market 1.6 TW space heating 0.3 TW hot
  water 1.3 TW process heat (solar crop drying
  0.05 TW)
• Temporal mismatch between source and demand
  requires storage
• (DS) yields high heat production costs
  (0.03-0.20)/kW-hr
• High-T solar thermal currently lowest cost solar
  electric source (0.12-0.18/kW-hr) potential to
  be competitive with fossil energy in long term,
  but needs large areas in sunbelt
• Solar-to-electric efficiency 18-20 (research in
  thermochemical fuels hydrogen, syn gas, metals)

Source Nathan Lewis
61
PV Land Area Requirements For U. S. Energy
Independence

• Facts
• U.S. Land Area 9.1x1012 m2 (incl. Alaska)
• Average Insolation 200 W/m2
• 2000 U.S. Primary Power Consumption 99 Quads
  3.3 TW yr./yr.
• 1999 U.S. Electricity Consumption 0.4 TW
• Conclusions
• 3.3 TW /(2x102 W/m2 x 10 Efficiency) 1.6x1011
  m2
• Requires 1.6x1011 m2/ 9.1x1012 m2 1.7 of Land

Source Nathan Lewis
62
PV Land Area Requirements
3 TW
20 TW
Source Nathan Lewis
63
Corrizo Plain Solar (When Active)
64
Abandoned PV Site In Carrizo Plains
65
A Notional Distribution Of PV Farms To
Achieve 20 TW of Carbon Free Energy in 2050
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each
Source Nathan Lewis
66
How Much Energy Can Be Produced On The Roofs of
Houses?

• 7x107 detached single family homes in U.S.
• 2000 sq ft/roof 44ft x 44 ft 13 m x 13 m
  180 m2/home or 1.2x1010 m2 total roof area
• This can (only) supply 0.25 TW, or 1/10th of
  2000 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
• but this could provide local space heating,
  surge (daytime) capacity.

Source Nathan Lewis
67
SolarBuzz
http//www.solarbuzz.com/
68
Efficiency of Photovoltaic Devices
25
20
Sunpower 20.4 in 2004
15
Efficiency ()
10
5
1980
2000
1970
1990
1950
1960
Year
Source Nathan Lewis
Margolis and Kammen, Science 285, 690 (1999)
69
Status Of Solar Photovoltaics

• Current efficiencies of PV modules
• 13-19 for crystaline Silicon
• Performance efficiency improvement of 2X is
  anticipated
• Increase in PV shipments (50MW in 1991 700 MW in
  2003 (compounding at about 30/yr.))
• Continuous reduction in investment costs up front
• Rate of decline is 20/year
• Current cost is 5/Watt target is 1/Watt (5X)
• Payback time will be reduced from 3-9 years to
  1-2 years
• Electricity production cost prediction
• .30 to 2.50/kWh would be reduced to .05 -
  .25/kWh
• Over 500,000 Solar Home Systems have been
  installed in the last 10 years

Source Turkenburg, Utrecht University
70
Nuclear As An Option?

• Nuclear plants do not scale well.
• Typically most effective at 1 GWatt
• To produce 10 TW of power
• 10000 new plants over the next 50 years
• One every other day, somewhere in the world
• Nuclear remains an option and is re-emerging for
  consideration (Three Mile Islands 25th
  anniversary)
• Fusion power remains as a great hope

71
Tidal
Stingray

• Very large tidal generation systems have been
  built or are planned (France, Phillipines (2.2
  GWatt))
• Very dependent on specific location geography
• Stingray can be used off-shore to catch general
  tidal and wave motion

La Rance, France
Dalupiri Ocean Power Plant
72
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• Hydrogen
• Fuel Cells

73
Hydrogen

• Widely produced in todays world economy
• Steam-methane reformer (SMR) process
• Just now, beginning to successfully scale down
  (e.g. to be used at gas stations in future
  (100,000 places in U.S,).

Source NAE Article, The Bridge, Microgeneration
Technology, 2003
74
Electrolysis

• Hydrogen can also be made from solar power on
  electrolysis of water
• A liquid, transportable form can be produced
  (methanol (good catalysts exist to do this from
  CO2 )). This ends up as carbon neutral or CO.
• At bulk power costs of .03/W electrolysis of
  water can compete with compressed or liquid H2
  (transported)
• Could produce small quantities of H2 to fuel
  cars, even at the level of a residence

75
Hydrogen, Again

• Fuel cells using Proton Exchange Membrane have
  made enormous progress, but are still expensive.
• Hydrogen storage in carbon fiber strengthened
  aluminum tanks.
• Hydride systems and carbon from solar power on
  electrolysis of water
• A liquid, transportable form can be produced
  (methanol (good catalysts exist to do this from
  CO2). This ends up as carbon neutral.
• Hydrides appear to be promising as means of
  storing hydrogen gas

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Is there Carbon in Hydrogen?

• If used in a fuel cell, Hydrogen still produces
  Carbon (Dioxide) because of how it was
  manufactured
• 145 grams/mile if it comes from natural gas
• 436 grams/mile if it comes from grid electricity
• But, for context
• 374 grams/mile if it came from gasoline (no fuel
  cell)
• 370 grams/mile if natural gas had been used
  directly (no fuel cell).
• 177 grams/mile through hybrid vehicles (no fuel
  cell with natural gas)

Source Wald, New York Times, 11/12/2003
77
Fuel Cell Technology
Source CETC
78
Fuel Cell Power Generation Is Emerging
Source Ballard
79
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• Distributed Power Generation
• Spinning capacity

80
Microgeneration Technology(Distributed
Generation)

• 7 of the worlds energy is generated on a
  distributed basis
• In some countries this is up to 50
• Generate power close to the load
• 10 1000 kW (traditional power plants are 100
  1000 MW)
• Internal Combustion, Turbine, Stirling Cycle
  (with efficiencies approaching 40), Solid-oxide
  fuel cells (over 40 efficiency), Wind Turbines,
  PV
• Modular (support incremental additions of
  capacity)
• Low(er) capital cost
• Waste heat can be captured and used locally via
  Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems
• Storage technology is also moving forward to deal
  with localized capacity (e.g. zinc-air fuel
  cell).

Source NAE Article, The Bridge, Microgeneration
Technology, 2003
81
Spinning Reserves From Responsive Loads

• How to avoid significant reserves in power
  generation?
• Control both generation and load
• Historically only generation was controlled
• Network technology enables control of load
  (through management of numerous small resources)

Source Oak Ridge Research Report, March 2003.
82
Spinning Reserve From Responsive Loads(Smart
Energy)
Carrier ComfortChoice themostats provide
significant monitoring capability - Hourly
data - No. of minutes of compressor/heater
operation - No. of starts - Average
temperature - Hour end temperature trend -
Event data - Accurate signal receipt and control
action time stamp
83
Conservation

• Hybrid Vehicles
• Space heating
• Water heating
• Co-generation

84
Energy Future Options(Policies)

• Topics
• Taxes
• Forced Standards
• Research and Development

85
Energy Future The EE Role

• Electricity is the future
• Most energy sources will come via electricity
• Systems will have to be significantly more
  efficient, smarter
• More distribution
• More connectivity (communication)
• More intelligence
• More information
• More integration
• More transparency
• The entire energy infrastructure will have to be
  changed within 50-100 years

Electrical Engineers will play a critical role
in making this transition effective
86
Conclusions
87
Conclusions (Mine)

• There is an energy problem (and a carbon
  problem), an unsustainable dependence on fossil
  fuel
• Market forces and innovation will play a major
  role, but are not responsive enough to deal with
  mass scale, current low costs of energy, and long
  time constants
• The economic impact of a forced shift from fossil
  fuels is unacceptable
• Policy shifts and long term investment are needed
• Natural Gas to Solar is the most visible path to
  sustainability, today
• Major, near term investment in Natural Gas
  infrastructure is needed
• Cost of a major solar power infrastructure is
  daunting, but we should organize ourselves for
  this eventuality
• Hydrogen can/will become an important transport
  system (start with methane derived hydrogen and
  move toward renewable resource driven hydrogen)
• Known efficiencies can produce near term gains.
  E.g., Distributed power (with co-generation of
  heat), smart power, hybrids
• Substantial investment in renewable energy
  research is justifiable
• Sufficient research is needed to achieve
  attractive economies of scale

88
Questions and Comments