Population

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Population
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• According to the non-profit group Population
  Connection (formerly ZPG) there are 6,891,688,545
  people in the world, and we add about 80 million
  people every year.

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Since World War II, the rate of growth has shot
up.
Cunningham and Cunningham
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• Since 1965, world population has more than
  doubled. Neo-Malthusians or Population Bombers
  (e.g., Paul Ehrlich, Lester Brown, Garret Hardin,
  and David Pimentel) have long argued that we are
  in danger of exceeding Earths carrying capacity.
  
• Over the past few years, we have experienced the
  slowest growth since the 1940s. Cornucopians or
  Population Optimists (e.g., Julian Simon)
  believe that population is not that big a problem
  and that economic growth and technology will see
  us through.
• Still others claim that our focus on human
  population growth is misplaced. They view
  excessive growth as a symptom of other bigger
  problems. People in this camp are Gender Equity
  or Equity Advocates.
• More on these perspectives later . . .

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As environmental geographers, we are interested
in knowing . . .

• What significant population patterns are out
  there
• Why these patterns exist and persist
• Where significant population growth is occurring
  today
• Where populations have stopped growing (or at
  least slowed down)
• What the environmental impacts of population
  growth are

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World's 10 Most Populous Countries 2009

Population Connections
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World's 10 Most Populous Countries 2000

U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division
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If one were to analyze a series of world
population density maps published over the past
several decades, two important points emerge

• 1) Population is not distributed uniformly
  around the world.
• Some areas support large populations (One out of
  every three people in the world is from either
  India or China) other areas are very sparsely
  populated.
• 2) Population patterns and rates of growth change
  over time.
• With respect to growth rates, there are
  tremendous disparities around the world. We live
  in two very different demographic worlds, one
  relatively small, old, and wealthy (with very
  high consumption rates per capita) and the other
  very large, young, and poor (with relatively low
  consumption rates per capita).

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Speaking of Consumption . . .

• If everyone in the world consumed like the
  average U.S. citizen, we would need four more
  planet Earths to meet everyones needs!

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Population Distribution

• MDCs account for 20 of world population but
  consume the lions share of resources. Some
  countries (e.g., Denmark, Sweden) have reached
  ZPG (births plus immigration deaths plus
  emigration) others have negative growth rates
  (e.g., Italy, Germany, Hungary, Japan).
• LDCs account for 80 of world population. Some
  countries (esp. in the Middle East and Africa
  south of the Sahara) have very high growth rates.
  Nigeria - the most populous country in Africa -
  had 33 million inhabitants in 1950. By 2050, it
  is projected to have 300 million.
• By 2025, MDCs will account for only 16 of world
  population. This is because over 90 of
  population growth over the next 30 years will
  occur in LDCs (esp. hot spots Africa and Middle
  East)

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Demographic Momentum

• In at least 68 countries, more than 40 of the
  population is under the age of 15.
• Afghanistan (42.9), Benin (47.9), Cambodia
  (45.4), Ethiopia (46.0), Haiti (42.6), Pakistan
  (41.8), Syria (46.1), Libya (48.3)

Rubenstein 1996 Wilson 2002
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• Over the next class period or two, well
• examine these and other issues more
• closely, as well as explore different ways of
• looking at population growth distribution
• different types of maps
• population pyramids
• different perspectives

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A couple of things to remember about maps and
numbers . . .

• 1) maps are generalizations, interpretive tools -
  we need to read them carefully
• 2) population by political boundaries can be
  deceiving
• 3) population numbers can be deceiving

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• On October 12, 1999, the UN announced
• that world population had officially reached 6
• billion people.
• How accurate were the data upon which this
  statement was made?
• Some countries do not have reliable census data.
  Some countries may wish to overstate or
  understate their populations. Why?

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Rubenstein 1996
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World Population Concentrations

• East Asia
• South Asia
• Southeast Asia
• Western Europe
• N.E. U.S./S.E. Canada

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Axiom for the day . . . People live where they
can eat!

• People tend to live in arable areas
• People tend to live in areas that are accessible
  (especially by water)
• People tend to migrate to areas where others have
  migrated

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Historically, what has caused world population to
grow?

• When we look at world population growth
• over the past several thousand years, we
• see that it has not grown evenly. There
• have been spurts in growth.

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Spurts in population growth (Three Revolutions)

• ca. 8000 B.C. - Agricultural Revolution (plant
  and animal domestication)
• ca. 1750 A.D. - Industrial Revolution
  (agricultural mechanization, transport,
  sanitation, health)
• ca. 1950 A.D. - Medical Revolution (elimination
  of many historical causes of death)

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And it keeps on growing . . .

• It took all of human
• history to reach 1 billion
• people in 1804.
• It only took 150 years to
• reach 3 billion by 1960.
• World population has more
• than doubled since 1965.

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How do we measure population changes?

• Rate of Natural Increase - Percentage by which a
  population grows in a year (birth rate minus
  death rate). Does not take migration into
  account. Current rate is about 1.14 for the
  world.
• Doubling time - Number of years needed to double
  a population. Current doubling time is about 61
  years for the world (in the 1960s it was 35
  years).
• Recent evidence suggests . . .
• that population growth is slowing down
• that doubling time is increasing

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Geographers also look at . . .

• crude birth rate - total number of live births in
  a year per 1000
• crude death rate - total number of deaths in a
  year per 1000

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Geographers also look at . . .

• total fertility rate - number of children a woman
  will have during child-bearing years (ages 15-49)

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Fertility Rates (Contd)

• Average fertility rate for the world is 2.61
  2.05 in the U.S. (CIA 2009)
• Fertility rates across the globe have been on the
  decline over the past 50 years - except in
  Africa. In Mexico, the average family in 1975
  had 7 children. In 2000, the average was down to
  2.5.
• China introduced a policy known as later,
  longer, fewer in 1971 followed by a 1 child per
  family policy since 1979 which has reduced the
  fertility rate. The rate has dropped from 6.2 in
  1949 to 1.6 in 2006. (Chinas population grew by
  700 million between 1950 and 2000.) Negative side
  effects - female infanticide and bride abduction.
• Family planning Iran has also lowered fertility
  rates.

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Geographers also look at . . .

• infant mortality rate - number of infant deaths
  (lt1 year) per 1000 live births
• 95 percent of the estimated 529,000 maternal
  deaths in 2000 occurred in Africa and Asia.
• life expectancy - number of years a newborn
  infant can be expected to live
• Even in the U.S. there are pockets where infant
  mortality is high and life expectancy is low for
  some members of society (e.g., Native American
  Indians).

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Why is population increasing at different rates
in different countries?

• To answer this, well talk about demographic
  transition (demographer Frank Notestein ca. 1945)
  and then take a look at population pyramids.
• Nearly all the population growth is occurring in
  poorer countries - those countries least able to
  support the growth.

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Demographic Transition - Process of change in a
societys population

• process with four stages (based on European and
  North American experiences)
• every country in the world can be grouped into
  one of four stages

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• What lowers the death rate?
• food security
• improvements in water supply and sanitation
• improvements in medicine
• Why does birth rate drop after death rate?
• decision to have fewer children is a cultural one
• fewer children needed in an industrial society
• fewer children needed in an urban society
• higher education and personal freedom for women
  tend to lower birth rates

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A couple of questions

• Do people base their decision on whether or not
  to have
• children in purely economic terms?
• Children are valued in different ways (e.g.,
  Where there is little opportunity for upward
  mobility, children offer status)
• Is the DTM an accurate predictor of trends in
  LDCs?
• Some LDCs stuck in Stage 2 (Birth rates have
  remained high after urbanization and
  industrialization)
• There may be a cultural preference in some
  countries to have larger families

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What is happening in Europe?

• Europe represented 12.5 of world population ca.
  1962
• Today it represents 7.2 of world population
• If current trends continue, it will represent
  just 5 of world population in 2050

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Selected European Fertility RatesNorth vs. South

• Italy, Spain, Greece (1.3)
• Netherlands (1.73)
• Scandinavia (1.8)
• France (1.9)
• Why the difference?

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Population Pyramids

• An analytical tool, a bar graph, that allows us
  to examine the distribution of a countrys
  population by age and gender.
• Tells us something about dependency (young and
  old).
• Tells us something about the future as well
  (demographic momentum).
• The shape of a pyramid is determined by the crude
  birth rate.

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• Population Projections
• for Nigeria (2000, 2025,
• 2050)

U.S. Census Bureau
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• Population Projections
• for Hungary (2000,
• 2025, 2050)

U.S. Census Bureau
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• Population Projections
• for U.S. (2000, 2025,
• 2050)

U.S. Census Bureau
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• Population Projections
• for Chile (2000, 2025,
• 2050)

U.S. Census Bureau
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Rubenstein 1996
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• Because labor was scarce and land plentiful, a
  low
• person/land ratio existed. Hence, each family
  had to
• reproduce its own labor force, and population
  grew rapidly
• during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
  
• Industrialization ultimately helped to bring
  about a
• demographic transition to smaller families, as
  children
• ceased to become an economic asset. In
  Sturbridge,
• Massachusetts, for instance, women marrying
  between
• 1730 and 1759 bore an average of 8.8 children,
  whereas
• those marrying between 1820 and 1839 bore an
  average of
• 5.3 children. Nationwide, women who married in
  1800
• bore an average of 6.4 children, but in 1849 the
  figure was
• 4.9 children and in 1879 it was 2.8 children.
• - Carolyn Merchant

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Overpopulation?

• What does overpopulation mean? Population
  exceeds carrying capacity.
• What does carrying capacity mean? The maximum
  population that the environment can support
  indefinitely.
• Is there an overpopulation problem in the world
  today? In the U.S.? This is a debate that has
  been unfolding for centuries.

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Overpopulation?

• Today the debate is carried on by . . .
• Neo-Malthusians (a group named for English
  economist Thomas Malthus)
• Gender-Equity and Equity advocates (who trace
  their roots to the writings of Karl Marx), and
• Cornucopians (best represented by the work of the
  late economist and statistician Julian Simon)

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Overpopulation?

• Thomas Malthus (1766 - 1834) was an English
  essayist and
• minister whose 1798 treatise on population got
  the ball
• rolling. It contained three key points
• food supply grows arithmetically while population
  grows geometrically
• passion between the sexes is constant and
  necessary
• resources are limited

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Overpopulation?

• His conclusion? Collapse in the future. His
  predictions have not come true he did not
  foresee technological advances, especially where
  agricultural output is concerned.
• Must understand what was happening in London at
  the time he was writing.

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Overpopulation?

• Neo-Malthusians (e.g., Paul Ehrlich, Garrett
  Hardin, Lester
• Brown, David Pimentel) have revived some of his
  ideas.
• Namely
• Population is an important issue because the
  planet is already overpopulated.
• Population growth puts unsustainable pressure on
  the earth and its limited resources.
• One of these days, we will overstep the Earths
  ability to support us. We need to control
  population soon.

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Overpopulation?

• Karl Marx vehemently opposed Malthuss positions,
  arguing that population growth is a symptom
  rather than a root cause of poverty, resource
  depletion, racism, classism, and other problems.
  
• Today, people like Betsy Hartmann and Paul
  Harrison have picked up on this equity
  argument. They state that most environmental
  problems have been caused by first world
  countries and poverty in third world countries.
• We need to raise standards of living, address the
  low status of women, expand services, education,
  reproductive rights.
• They argue that the DTM works!

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Overpopulation?

• Then there are the Cornucopians. According to
  Julian Simon, population may or may not be the
  cause of environmental problems. He maintains
  that the quality of life by a variety of measures
  is improving in many places around the world.
• To Simon, population growth is a good thing -
  people are the ultimate resource and the more
  people on earth, the more minds we will have
  working on our problems.
• The solution lies in economic policies that
  promote economic growth.
• He too argues that the DTM works!

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In conclusion

• Who is right? Each camp makes some good points.
• Without a doubt, explosive and unchecked
  population growth will have negative effects on
  the earth.
• Without a doubt, resources and amenities are not
  distributed equitably around the globe and
  poverty is at the root of many of the worlds
  problems.
• Family planning and education have done much to
  reduce fertility rates around the world. We are
  better off now in terms of reducing growth than
  we were 30 years ago.

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In conclusion

• Can we concentrate our efforts on reducing
  fertility rates in LDCs without addressing the
  consumption problems in MDCs? No! Consumption
  rates in MDCs pose even greater risks to the
  planet.
• Although population growth is difficult to
  predict and there are a variety of different
  viewpoints when it comes to future projections,
  it is likely that world population will level off
  around 8-10 billion sometime this century.
• According to the U.N. Population Division,
  medium-range population estimates for 2050 are
  down from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion. The U.N.
  estimates population might stabilize at 9 billion
  by 2300.