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NCCCS Long Range Plans 20072012

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Continued NC population growth. Opposite ends of the age ... Increasing unemployment. Fastest Growing, Highest Demand Programs. Qualitative data analysis ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: NCCCS Long Range Plans 20072012


1
NCCCS Long Range Plans 2007-2012
  • Meta-analysis

2
LRP Background
  • Advanced Planning Funds Project
  • 8 million for advanced facilities planning
  • Long Range Plans
  • Facilities Master Plans
  • Comprehensive NCCCS Capital Plan Request
  • Addresses Fiscal Resources Critical Issue
  • 54 of 58 colleges submitted LRPs
  • 64,000 question

3
Is the LRP going to become another NCCCS
requirement?
4
Why a Meta-analysis?
  • What is the utility?
  • Identify anticipate key institutional trends
  • Used as rationale for NCCCS budget request
  • Reveals relationships
  • Raises questions
  • Suggests future research
  • Trends analyzed
  • Population Trends
  • Enrollment Trends
  • Fastest Growing/Highest Demand Programs

5
Population Trends
  • CC Benefits Reports
  • All 58 colleges
  • 2007-2013
  • Eighteen 5-year age groups
  • Top five fastest growing age groups

6
Projected TOTAL POPULATION Increases 2007-13
Coastal Carolina CC
Mitchell CC
Southeastern CC Haywood CC
Actual Total Population Increases 2001-06 8.12
7
Top 5 Fastest Segments
  • Identified top 5 from each college
  • Assigned values of 1-5
  • 1First Fastest Growing Age Segment
  • 5Fifth Fastest Growing Age Segment
  • Averaged rankings across all colleges segments
  • N58

8
Fastest Growing Age Groups 2007-13
9
Top 5 Fastest Growing Age Segments
  • 20-24 yrs
  • 48 colleges 2.2 composite score
  • 60-64 yrs
  • 44 colleges 2.3 composite score
  • 65-69 yrs
  • 52 colleges 2.5 composite score
  • 55-59 yrs
  • 40 colleges 3.3 composite score
  • Under 5 yrs
  • 30 colleges 3.5 composite score

10
Implications?
  • Continued NC population growth
  • Opposite ends of the age spectrum
  • Challenges?
  • Different generations
  • Different types of community demands
  • Diverse educational needs

11
Enrollment Trends
  • LRP Projection Methods
  • Method 1 5-yr average percent share of System
    FTE
  • Method 2 5-yr average plus growth factor
  • Method 3 headcount conversion factor
  • Locally developed model including assumptions
  • Five colleges used locally developed model
    Remainder split between Methods 1 2
  • N 58 colleges
  • Five-year period 2007-12
  • Submitted for review to colleges

12
Actual FTE Enrollment Increases 2001-06
21
24
26
-4
13
Projected FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12
14
TOTAL Projected FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12
South Piedmont CC
Wayne CC
Randolph CC Lenoir CC
15
Projected CURRICULUM FTE Enrollment Increases
2007-12
James Sprunt CC
Stanly CC
Davidson County CC Wilson CC
16
Projected CON ED FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12
South Piedmont CC
Haywood CC
Coastal Carolina CC Durham Tech CC
17
Projected BASIC SKILLS FTE Enrollment Increases
2007-12
Wilson CC
James Sprunt CC
Tri-County CC Beaufort County CC
18
Implications?
  • Median projections are modest
  • Predictions
  • Greater increase than past 5 year period
  • Greater increase in Con Ed
  • Questions
  • Basic Skills?
  • Intervening factors
  • Increasing energy costs
  • Increasing unemployment

19
Fastest Growing, Highest Demand Programs
  • Qualitative data analysis
  • By college developed a list of the programs
    mentioned in Key Implications sections of each
    LRP
  • Fastest growing or highest demand
  • Developed then categorized programs by a
    program schema
  • N50

20
Programs mentioned most often in LRP Key
Implications Sections
5
10
14
7
14
7
16
8
18
9
20
10
24
12
28
14
34
17
36
18
36
18
36
18
40
20
48
24
68
34
88
44
21
Top five program categories
  • Health-related (88)
  • Occupational Trades construction,
    transportation, auto mechanics, real estate (68)
  • College transfer (48)
  • High school to college transition (40)
  • ABE/GED (36)
  • First responders BLET, EMT, Fire (36)
  • Teacher education (36)

22
Implications?
  • Cost of health programs
  • Continuing importance of technical programs
  • Evidence of educations importance in the
    Knowledge Economy
  • Basic Skills FTE projection vs. anticipated
    growth of ABE/GED programming

23
Questions?
24
System Update
  • Organizational changes
  • Strategic Emphases

25
Organizational Changes
  • Strategic Planning in Presidents Office
  • Research Reports in the Exec VP Office
  • Data Warehouse remains under Dr. Williams but is
    split
  • Direct technical questions to Rick Newsome
  • Data needs to Terri Shelwood

26
(No Transcript)
27
Strategic Emphases
  • Foster system simplification and facilitate
    colleges to be nimble, effective, efficient, and
    accountable.
  • Enhance completion rates and bridges between
    programs.
  • Foster opportunities and clearer pathways for
    low-income students.
  • Expand health care programs.

28
Strategic Emphases
  • Reenergize technical education.
  • Develop stronger training infrastructure and
    focused partnerships to enhance economic
    development.
  • Support drop-out prevention and increase
    outreach, awareness and college-readiness of
    middle and high school students.

29
Strategic Emphases
  • Enhance 22 partnerships through distance
    education and provide focus to strategic
    workforce areas of teachers, nurses, and
    engineers.
  • Focus on utility of technology to enhance student
    learning and customer service and promote
    economies of scale with educational partners.

30
Strategic Emphases
  • Foster community college champions and increase
    CC awareness.
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