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The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change in Marine Systems and some examples

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Title: The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change in Marine Systems and some examples


1
The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental
Change in Marine Systems (and some examples)
Manuel Barange Plymouth Marine
Laboratory Plymouth, UK m.barange_at_pml.ac.uk
2
Acknowledgments
  • Ian Perry, DFO, Canada.
  • Gorka Merino, PML, UK
  • Icarus Allen, PML
  • Jason Holt, POL, UK
  • Marie-Caroline Badjeck, WorldFish, Malaysia
  • Eddie Allison, WorldFish, Malaysia
  • Christian Mullon, IRD, France

3
Structure
  • Humans and the Earth system
  • Coupled Social-Ecological systems
  • Fisheries as a coupled s-e system
  • Interdisciplinary social-ecological research the
    QUEST_Fish project
  • Bioeconomic modelling human and environmental
    impacts in global fisheries the double
    exposure
  • Game

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The World Atlas of the Artificial Night Sky
Brightness
7
6.3b 1/20th km2 of ocean/ person
6.3b 1/600th km2 of shelf seas/ person
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10
The multiple demands on the marine environment
  • Oil Gas
  • Mariculture
  • Coastal
  • Defence
  • Ports
  • Navigation
  • Military
  • Activities
  • Culture
  • Conservation
  • Dredging
  • Disposal
  • Fishing
  • Renewable
  • Energy
  • Marine
  • Recreation
  • Submarine
  • Cables

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Realm of Expectation
FUTURE
PRESENT
Realm of Memory
Forecast
PAST
Hindcast Re-analysis
13
SRES Scenarios
Nakicenovic, N. Swart, R. (Eds). (2000) Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report
of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University
Press Cambridge, UK and New York. 570 pp
14
Mitigation
Greenhouse emissions scenarios
Human systems
Adaptation
Global Climate Models
Climate Predictions
Natural Systems
15
  • Social-ecological systems
  • complex adaptive systems including social (human)
    and ecological (biophysical) sub-systems in
    two-way feedback relationships
  • integrated concept of humans-in-nature
  • delineation between social and ecological systems
    is artificial
  • Berkes. 2010. In Ommer et al. Resilience of
    fisheries systems to global change a
    social-ecological perspective. Wiley-Blackwell.

16
Hulme 2009. Why we disagree about climate change.
Cambridge
  • CC is a battleground, a justification, an
    inspiration, a threat. It is not a fact waiting
    to be discovered or proved, neither a problem
    waiting for a solution, any more than clashes of
    political or religious clashes are problems
    waiting to be solved
  • Instead of solving it, how does the idea of CC
    alter the way we arrive at, and achieve our
    personal aspirations and collective social goals?

17
Consequences
INTERACTIONS
NATURAL SYSTEMS
HUMAN SOCIETY
Impacts
18
Coupled marine social-ecological systems
Perry et al. 2010. In Barange et al. Marine
ecosystems and global change. OUP
19
Direct human forcing of marine systems interacts
with climate forcing
Fishing alters how marine populations and
ecosystems respond to climate forcing
Fishing simplifies characteristics of marine
populations
Ecosystems under intense fishing evolve towards
simpler systems
Perry et al. 2009. J. Mar. Syst.
20
Direct human forcing of marine systems interacts
with climate forcing
  • Fishing
  • unlikely to alter sensitivities of individual
    fish to climate
  • removal of individuals with particular
    characteristics affects structure / function of
    higher levels
  • populations of fish more sensitive to climate
    variability by removing
  • older age classes spatial sub-units changing
    life-history traits
  • fish communities track climate variability more
    closely by
  • decreasing mean size and trophic level and
    increasing turnover rates
  • marine ecosystems more sensitive to climate
    forcing by
  • evolving towards stronger bottom-up control

Perry et al. 2009 J Mar Systems
21
Drivers of change in biophysical and human
sub-systems may differ at different scales
Perry and Ommer. 2003. Fish. Oceanogr.
22
Global (and local) changes in biophysical and
human sub-systems can lead to marine ecosystem
crises
  • uncertain global changes and increased
    vulnerability to these changes due to fishing and
    other human activities can have unexpected and
    undesirable impacts on marine ecosystems
  • are usually surprises and are often called
    crises when they affect human communities that
    depend on these marine systems
  • but how these human communities respond can
    increase or decrease the changes in these marine
    systems

23
Marine social-ecological system responses to
global changes
- with a small crisis, both coping and adapting
strategies are available
- with a large crisis, coping strategies are
not enough only longer-term adapting strategies
are available
Some coping strategies used by human communities
and networks may prove detrimental to the
biophysical system over a longer term
24
Key points
  • Embrace concept of coupled marine
    social-ecological systems
  • affected by global environmental changes,
    globalisation, and their interactions
  • It is not climate-OR-fishing natural marine
    ecosystem-OR-human social system
  • but climate-AND-fishing natural marine
    ecosystem-AND-human social system
  • Explore concepts of vulnerability and adaptive
    capacity of these social-ecological systems
  • in both biophysical and human sub-systems
  • Issues are critical for peoples livelihoods and
    reducing economic poverty in an uncertain world
    of global change

25
Tools for coupled marine social-ecological
systems research in an era of global
change focusing on fisheries
26
The value of fisheries
  • 175M fishers (assuming 3 people per household
    520M fisheries-dependant people or 10 of the
    world population)
  • Fish and shelfish provides 50 of animal protein
    to 400 M people, mostly from LDC

27
  • 40 fish products traded internationally (52Mt)
  • 6 rice, 18 wheat, 12 coarse grains, 7 meat
    products traded (20Mt)
  • Aquaculture is the fastest growing agricultural
    production system (7/y)
  • 2.5/y crops)

28
QUEST-FISH
web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish/
How climate change would affect the potential
production for global fisheries resources in the
future, compared to past and present scenarios?
29
The QUEST_Fish model
GCMs
Regional Physical-Biological Shelf-Sea Models
Potential Fish Production Estimates
Bio-economic marine commodity models
Vulnerability Assessments
30
Map of global catches reported by FAO for 1998
Watson, R. and D. Pauly 2001. Nature 414, 534-536
31
GCMs
Fully coupled At regional scale
32
The Experiments
  • One Climate model and one emissions scenario
  • IPSL-CM4 with SRESA1B / B2
  • Time slices 3yr spin-up 10year production
  • Pre-industrial 1864-1873
  • Present day 1992-2001 Reanalysis forced
  • Near Future 2036-2044
  • Far Future 2086-2094
  • Thats 780 domain years of integration!

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GCMs
Regional Physical-Biological Shelf-Sea Models
Potential Fish Production Estimates
Bio-economic marine commodity models
Vulnerability Assessments
35
One-way coupling
Jennings et al. 2008. Proc. Roy. Soc.
Two-way coupling
Blanchard et al. 2009. J. Anim. Ecol. 78 270-280
36
Jennings et al 2008
37
GCMs
Regional Physical-Biological Shelf-Sea Models
Potential Fish Production Estimates
Bio-economic marine commodity models
Vulnerability Assessments
38
  • Vulnerability to changes
  • Nationally (whole fish production)
  • Globally (single commodity)

Fish Imports Fish Exports
the degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, adverse effects
WWW.WORLDMAPPER.COM
39
National Vulnerability Assessment
Sensitivity (S) Degree to which fisheries
production systems are affected by climate change
OR national economies are dependent on fisheries
Exposure to Change (E) The degree to which
fisheries production systems are exposed to
(changed by) climate change
Sensitivity (S) e.g. Fish export value, Fish as
of national protein, Number of fishers, of
labour force
Exposure (E) e.g. Estimated Fish Biomass Anomaly

Adaptive Capacity (AC) Ability or capacity to
modify or change to cope with changes in actual
or expected climate stress
Potential Impacts (PI) impacts that may
occur without taking into account planned
adaptation
Adaptive Capacity (AC) e.g. Education,
Governance, Size of Economy, Ability to switch
fisheries, market integration, subsidies, etc.


VULNERABILITY V f ( PI, AC)
40
Vulnerability which countries have most to lose
by not planning for climate change impacts on
fisheries?
Allison et al. Fish Fisher. 2009
41
GCMs
Regional Physical-Biological Shelf-Sea Models
Potential Fish Production Estimates
Bio-economic marine commodity models
Vulnerability Assessments
42
Delgado et al. 2003
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Fishmeal use
45
WSSPF (Worldwide System of Small Pelagic
Fisheries), Mullon et al. NRM (in press)
  • Natural resources 12 Surplus production systems
    subject to climate-driven variability and 12
    fisheries investment models.
  • Yield is f of q, F subject to quota
  • Trade 15 fishmeal and 6 fish oil paths from
    producers to consumers (85 of global trade).
  • Investment patterns driven by S/D externalities
    and can increase F
  • In an expanding market, if the supply is constant
    the price of the product is expected to increase.
  • Each producers trade, production and exploitation
    is a result of a profit maximization strategy in
    a global context, solved in terms as a non
    cooperative game.
  • Model built from data 1997-2004

46
Climate
Ecosystem
Production Systems
Markets Socioeconomics
47
Summary of current simulations
CLIMATE
  • The impacts of climate on regional natural
    resources used as commodities in a stable market
    can be managed through regional management
    measures.
  • However, in a growing globalised market
    (increased demand) resources tend towards
    declines and eventually collapse, even if
    regional management measures are in place.
  • This collapse is sequential, starting with the
    regions more affected by climate and spreading to
    those that pick up the gap in supply.

AQUACULTURE
48
Joël de Rosnay 1979."The Macroscope. A new world
scientific system"
49
Conclusions
  • Natural resources (in the marine as well as
    terrestrial environments) are part of established
    social-ecological systems.
  • Social-ecological systems must be investigated
    from both the natural and the social side in
    order to understand their dynamics.
  • Social-ecological systems do not have a
    solution or a technological fix, they are
    frameworks for integrating natural and social
    science perspectives.
  • When natural scientists try to by-pass this
    reality they often turn to normative statements,
    defining how the world should be (rather than
    how it is) and their scientific advise often
    becomes compromised as a result.

50
Do you want to play?
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TRANSFORMING THE MODEL INTO A ROLE PLAYING GAME
  • To allow for adequate appropriation of
    decision-making, to share information, to improve
    stakeholder interactions, to launch some
    collective learning processes.
  • To mimic and thus to help in the management of
    common natural resources.
  • To facilitate negotiation or for experimenting
    how people interact.

53
THE PLAYERS AND MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS
  • Representatives of Fisheries
  • South America
  • Europe
  • Asia
  • Representatives of Markets
  • Meal Europe
  • Oil Europe
  • Meal Asia
  • Representatives of States
  • South America
  • Asia
  • They al have different knowledge of the system,
    objectives and actions.
  • Scientists do not make decisions, just send
    scientific advice

54
PLAYING THE GAME
INITIALIZATION and SCENARIOS Round 0 Players
check their information based on last 10 year
records of the system. Round 1 to 10 (time
steps, years) Players independently make their
decisions and scientists publish their
recommendations. The Model is run every year
driven by players decisions. Results of the
simulations and advices of scientists are
distributed to players, according to their
status DISCUSSION
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Close any programmes you may be running Have one
single internet access window open (IE, Mozilla,
etc.) Go to
https//vmpinwar.mpl.ird.fr/fishmealEclipse/playin
g.htm
Override any security warnings
Click on Role playing game
And wait!
61
  • 50 mortality produced due to El Niño on the 4th
    year of the simulation in the Chilean and
    Peruvian anchovy
  • 30 random variability on the recruitment of all
    the stocks modelled.

CLIMATE
SCENARIOS
(a) Fishmeal substitution allows market
stabilization. (b) Market demand expands at
aquaculture expansion rate.
AQUACULTURE
62
El Niño and Recruitment variability
MARKET STABILITY
63
El Niño and Recruitment variability
El Niño and Recruitment variability
MARKET STABILITY
MARKET EXPANSION
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