Title: Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
1Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability
and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
- Project Coordinator Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de
Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF - Project Duration 3 years
2RESEARCH TEAM
- MEXICO
- Carlos GAY Atmospheric Physics - UNAM
- Patricia ROMERO Sociology/Public Policy UAM
- Cecilia CONDE Climatology UNAM
- Jorge ADAME Hydrology U.of Tamaulipas
- Hallie EAKIN Geography U. of Arizona
- ARGENTINA
- Roberto SEILER Biometeorology UNRC
- Enrique GROTE Social Psychology UNRC
- Marta VINOCUR Agrometeorology UNRC
- Ana María GEYMONAT Agricultural Economics
UNRC - Mónica WEHBE Rural Development UNRC
- BRAZIL Maria del Carmen Lemos - Political
Sciences-U.of Arizona - CHILE Alejandro León U. of Chile.
Agricultural Economics - COLOMBIA
- NOT SEEKING FUND
3RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of
change in Mexico and Argentina, translated into
region and sector-specific policy and
institutional reforms, affecting the
vulnerabilities of different types of farm
systems and their capacities to adapt? - What are the implications of particular
agricultural and water policy reforms for the
production strategies of different types of
farmers, and what is the significance of these
strategies in terms of enhancing or diminishing
the vulnerabilities of farmers to climatic risk
and their capacities to adapt to such risk? - How can existing water and agricultural
institutions and decision-makers make better use
of climate research? How can adaptation
capacities be enhanced within the context of
current policy trends?
4RESEARCH SITES
- Small-scale export Veracruz and Córdoba
- Large-scale diversified export Tamaulipas and
Córdoba
5Córdoba, Argentina
6Climate data required for our project
- Surface Basic Variables
- Temperature (maximun and minimun)
- Precipitation
- Solar radiation, cloud cover
- Variables used in previous Mexican downscaling
statistical method - Sea surface temperature
- Sea level pressure
- Temperature and vorticity (700, 500 mb)
- Possible variables that depend of the stakeholder
interest (related to hazards) - Winds, evaporation, days with frosts, heavy
rains, hail, etc. -
7 These variables are needed at
- The following time scales
- Historical at least 30 years for baselines
(1961-1990, if possible) - Recent years 2000-2002
- ENSO years
- Climate trends and climate change scenarios
2020s, 2050,.. - The following time resolutions
- Monthly (used also for generating seasonal,
annual,..) - Daily for extreme event analysis and for crop
simulation models - The following spatial resolutions
- Regional
- Local, county level
8Methods/tools used for developing climate
scenarios
- Base scenarios 30 years trends and averages
(1961-1990) if possible - Climate change scenarios
- Incremental
- Historic analogues (trends, El Niño years,
decades similar to selected GCMs outputs) - GCM outputs, interpolation, downscaling
- Tools Climlab, Magicc/ScenGen
9Non-Climate data required for our project
- Indicators to be examined
- Socio-economic and environmental indicators will
be developed as the final step of the proposed
methodology. If the attributes proposed in the
original project are accepted, some indicators
could be (examples) -
- Related to System flexibility range of income
sources, diversity of crop base,.. - Related to Livelihood stability range of
variability in production (yields), income,
participation in labor markets - Related to Equity access to services, technical
support, irrigation
10(No Transcript)
11 These indicators are needed at
- The following time scales
- Historical perhaps 1970 as baseline for the two
countries perhaps 1995 as example of changes in
livelihood strategies (e.g. Post NAFTA, in the
case of Mexico), for the two countries. - Recent years 2000-2002. Current livelihood
practices and resources - Strong ENSO years droughts, floods
- Perhaps only 2020 for some indicators
(population, economic growth). What if? Exercise - The following time resolutions
- Seasonal
- Annual
- Decadal (particularly last decade of the 20th
century) - The following spatial resolutions
- National
- Regional
- County level, farm level
12Methods/tools used for developing non-climate
scenarios and for the socioeconomic analysis
- Identification with stakeholders participation of
a set of political-economic and economic factors
that actually affect them, such as markets,
policies, risk management strategies. - Analysis of aggregated agricultural and
socio-economic data at regional and county level
and other environmental statistics - In depth interviews and household surveys will be
used to generate specific indicators - Statistical and qualitative data analysis, e.g.
estimation of the relative importance of climate
in decision-making. - Recent years trends (globalization,
neo-liberalism in the Americas) and
socio-economic projections will be used as future
possible scenarios- - Tools SPSS detailed ethnographies, focus groups
qualitative interviews
13Additional knowledge and skills expected to gain
from these workshops
- Extreme events analysis.
- Downscaling techniques
- Magicc / Scengen and regional models basic
features - In depth analysis of climate scenarios
development and application state of the art. - Plans to communicate and transfer the
knowledge/skills to the rest of the project team - We will develop our first bi-national workshop on
May, 2002. Colombian researchers are invited to
this workshop, mainly to discuss the adoption of
the same methodologies and to develop their AIACC
research agenda. - Students will use during this year the proposed
methods /tools in their thesis. -
14 Advantages of using these methods/tools
- Methods/tools. Climate
- Generally accepted (consensus of climate change
community), - Well documented
- Some of them applied/used previously by our
research team. - Methods/tools. Non- climate
- Well documented
- Some of them applied/used previously by our
research team. - Some of them applied/used previously by our
research team. - Disadvantages of and obstacles to using these
methods/tools - Methods/tools.
- Increasing uncertainties, when changing time
scales, spatial scales. - Downscaling techniques not agreed / applied at
local / farm level by our research team for both
countries before - Consistency / integration between climate and
socio-economic scenarios for both countries is
still an open question - How our climate and non climate products will
be discussed and feedback with stakeholders and
into our research is also an open question.
Particularly, we will define during the project
how to assess the interest and understanding of
the stakeholders of possible climate change
conditions.