Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina

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Title: Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina


1
Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability
and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina
  • Project Coordinator Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de
    Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF
  • Project Duration 3 years

2
RESEARCH TEAM
  • MEXICO
  • Carlos GAY Atmospheric Physics - UNAM
  • Patricia ROMERO Sociology/Public Policy UAM
  • Cecilia CONDE Climatology UNAM
  • Jorge ADAME Hydrology U.of Tamaulipas
  • Hallie EAKIN Geography U. of Arizona
  • ARGENTINA
  • Roberto SEILER Biometeorology UNRC
  • Enrique GROTE Social Psychology UNRC
  • Marta VINOCUR Agrometeorology UNRC
  • Ana María GEYMONAT Agricultural Economics
    UNRC
  • Mónica WEHBE Rural Development UNRC
  • BRAZIL Maria del Carmen Lemos - Political
    Sciences-U.of Arizona
  • CHILE Alejandro León U. of Chile.
    Agricultural Economics
  • COLOMBIA
  • NOT SEEKING FUND

3
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
  • How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of
    change in Mexico and Argentina, translated into
    region and sector-specific policy and
    institutional reforms, affecting the
    vulnerabilities of different types of farm
    systems and their capacities to adapt?
  • What are the implications of particular
    agricultural and water policy reforms for the
    production strategies of different types of
    farmers, and what is the significance of these
    strategies in terms of enhancing or diminishing
    the vulnerabilities of farmers to climatic risk
    and their capacities to adapt to such risk?
  • How can existing water and agricultural
    institutions and decision-makers make better use
    of climate research? How can adaptation
    capacities be enhanced within the context of
    current policy trends?

4
RESEARCH SITES
  • Small-scale export Veracruz and Córdoba
  • Large-scale diversified export Tamaulipas and
    Córdoba

5
Córdoba, Argentina
6
Climate data required for our project
  • Surface Basic Variables
  • Temperature (maximun and minimun)
  • Precipitation
  • Solar radiation, cloud cover
  • Variables used in previous Mexican downscaling
    statistical method
  • Sea surface temperature
  • Sea level pressure
  • Temperature and vorticity (700, 500 mb)
  • Possible variables that depend of the stakeholder
    interest (related to hazards)
  • Winds, evaporation, days with frosts, heavy
    rains, hail, etc.

7
These variables are needed at
  • The following time scales
  • Historical at least 30 years for baselines
    (1961-1990, if possible)
  • Recent years 2000-2002
  • ENSO years
  • Climate trends and climate change scenarios
    2020s, 2050,..
  • The following time resolutions
  • Monthly (used also for generating seasonal,
    annual,..)
  • Daily for extreme event analysis and for crop
    simulation models
  • The following spatial resolutions
  • Regional
  • Local, county level

8
Methods/tools used for developing climate
scenarios
  • Base scenarios 30 years trends and averages
    (1961-1990) if possible
  • Climate change scenarios
  • Incremental
  • Historic analogues (trends, El Niño years,
    decades similar to selected GCMs outputs)
  • GCM outputs, interpolation, downscaling
  • Tools Climlab, Magicc/ScenGen

9
Non-Climate data required for our project
  • Indicators to be examined
  • Socio-economic and environmental indicators will
    be developed as the final step of the proposed
    methodology. If the attributes proposed in the
    original project are accepted, some indicators
    could be (examples)
  • Related to System flexibility range of income
    sources, diversity of crop base,..
  • Related to Livelihood stability range of
    variability in production (yields), income,
    participation in labor markets
  • Related to Equity access to services, technical
    support, irrigation

10
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11
These indicators are needed at
  • The following time scales
  • Historical perhaps 1970 as baseline for the two
    countries perhaps 1995 as example of changes in
    livelihood strategies (e.g. Post NAFTA, in the
    case of Mexico), for the two countries.
  • Recent years 2000-2002. Current livelihood
    practices and resources
  • Strong ENSO years droughts, floods
  • Perhaps only 2020 for some indicators
    (population, economic growth). What if? Exercise
  • The following time resolutions
  • Seasonal
  • Annual
  • Decadal (particularly last decade of the 20th
    century)
  • The following spatial resolutions
  • National
  • Regional
  • County level, farm level

12
Methods/tools used for developing non-climate
scenarios and for the socioeconomic analysis
  • Identification with stakeholders participation of
    a set of political-economic and economic factors
    that actually affect them, such as markets,
    policies, risk management strategies.
  • Analysis of aggregated agricultural and
    socio-economic data at regional and county level
    and other environmental statistics
  • In depth interviews and household surveys will be
    used to generate specific indicators
  • Statistical and qualitative data analysis, e.g.
    estimation of the relative importance of climate
    in decision-making.
  • Recent years trends (globalization,
    neo-liberalism in the Americas) and
    socio-economic projections will be used as future
    possible scenarios-
  • Tools SPSS detailed ethnographies, focus groups
    qualitative interviews

13
Additional knowledge and skills expected to gain
from these workshops
  • Extreme events analysis.
  • Downscaling techniques
  • Magicc / Scengen and regional models basic
    features
  • In depth analysis of climate scenarios
    development and application state of the art.
  • Plans to communicate and transfer the
    knowledge/skills to the rest of the project team
  • We will develop our first bi-national workshop on
    May, 2002. Colombian researchers are invited to
    this workshop, mainly to discuss the adoption of
    the same methodologies and to develop their AIACC
    research agenda.
  • Students will use during this year the proposed
    methods /tools in their thesis.

14
Advantages of using these methods/tools
  • Methods/tools. Climate
  • Generally accepted (consensus of climate change
    community),
  • Well documented
  • Some of them applied/used previously by our
    research team.
  • Methods/tools. Non- climate
  • Well documented
  • Some of them applied/used previously by our
    research team.
  • Some of them applied/used previously by our
    research team.
  • Disadvantages of and obstacles to using these
    methods/tools
  • Methods/tools.
  • Increasing uncertainties, when changing time
    scales, spatial scales.
  • Downscaling techniques not agreed / applied at
    local / farm level by our research team for both
    countries before
  • Consistency / integration between climate and
    socio-economic scenarios for both countries is
    still an open question
  • How our climate and non climate products will
    be discussed and feedback with stakeholders and
    into our research is also an open question.
    Particularly, we will define during the project
    how to assess the interest and understanding of
    the stakeholders of possible climate change
    conditions.
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