Title: Risk Management in DoD Space Systems Acquisition Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle EELV
1Risk Management in DoD Space Systems Acquisition
Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)
- Tim Vermilion
- Space Missile Systems Center
- EELV Program Office (SMC/EV)
2Not Another Tutorial
- Many methods of Risk Management (RM) exist
- RM must be tailored to fit the program phase
- Not addressing RM tools but a technique
- The purpose of this presentation
- How EELV is implementing risk management in a
unique environment - A discussion in effective tailoring of an RM
process
3Agenda
- Overview Program Environment
- Historical Development of the Process
- Description of the Current Process
- Summary
4Overview Program Environment
Delta IV (Boeing)
(x,y) x denotes 4m or 5m payload fairing,
y of solid rocket motors
5Overview Program Environment
Atlas V (Lockheed-Martin)
400/500 Series Solid Configurations
500 Only
400 4m payload fairing 500 5m payload fairing
400 Series
500 Series
Heavy
6Overview Program Environment
NSS vs. DoD Acquisition Phases
From National Security Space (NSS) Acquisition
Policy 03-01 signed in October 2003
7Overview Program Environment
EELV Program Schedule
FY95 96 97 98 99 00 01
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
- 1st Flights (Commercial / Military)
- Boeing (FY03/03)
- LMA (FY02/06)
MS I
OIPT
MS II
LCCV
Pre-EMD
EMD
17 months 2 Contracts
15 Months 4 Contracts
Development 2 Other Transactions (OTA)
Buy II
RFP
RFP
CFI
Buy III
TAILORED PDRs
DDR
TAILORED SRRs
TCDR
DCR
Pre-EMD - Pre-Engineering Manufacturing
Development LCCV - Low Cost Concept
Validation TCDR - Tailored Critical Design
Review SRR - Systems Requirements Review RFP
- Request for Proposal PDR - Preliminary
Design Review CFI - Call For Improvements
DDR - Down-select Design Review MS
Milestone DCR Design Certification Review
8Overview Program Environment
- Both Contractors now have a post-development risk
management process - SPO process adds by tracking and managing
programmatic risks launch system risks
Development
Operations
Program Timeline
9Overview Program Environment
Current Launch Schedule (Not including NASA or
Commercial)
EELV FY03 FY04 FY05
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
FY10 FY11
Boeing Delta IV-CCAFS SLC-37B
Lockheed-Martin Atlas V-CCAFS SLC-41
Launch rate of commercial payloads is lower than
expected which has impacted the acquisition
strategy
Boeing Delta IV-VAFB SLC-6
Lockheed-Martin Atlas V-VAFB SLC-3E
1
1
4
6
6
7
Un-Awarded
- Launched
- Heavy
- Medium
10Historical Development of the Process
Unique Risk Management Environment
- Government (i.e., SPO) RM activities are
increasing - Baseline was that both contractors were 100
responsible to perform trades with cost, schedule
performance - Recent launch failures (1998/99) have caused an
increase in government involvement and additional
SPO insight into contractor activities - Failure of commercial market to materialize
reduced contractor trade space - EELV program management is learning how to use RM
as a formal tool to aid in decision making - Restricted Contract Structure (Not Flexible)
- Government directed risk mitigation efforts
require either separate contract action or must
be performed with government manpower - Data availability is limited no Earned Value
Management or Data Deliveries (e.g., CDRLs)
11Historical Development of the Process
Monthly Cycle
SPO Risk Management Council (Division Chiefs)
12Description of the Current Process
13Description of the Current Process
Subjective Assessment Criteria
- Designed for risk prioritization only
- Ordinal Scale that allows a subjective input
14Description of the Current Process
Current Input Products
SPO Division
- -Risk Owner develops input and tracks risk
- -Input includes
- Risk Statement
- Assessment
- Handling Plan
- Burn Down (Next Page)
- -Input is validated by Division Chief Chief
Engineer - -Resources decisions made within Division Chief
or PM trade space
15Description of the Current Process
Current Input Products
SPO Division
Bar from overall list provides frame of reference
in program list
- Burn Down Plan
- Visual representation of events timeline
- Options encourage future planning to mitigate
risk - Forecast of necessary resources
16Description of the Current Process
Current Output Products
SPO Chief Engineer
- Example Risk Spreadsheet for Program Level (HIGH
MEDIUM Risk Only) - Consolidates Inputs
- Hyperlinks for Easy Briefing
- HANDLING METHOD Status/Help field allows for
summary look of management concerns
Created in MS Excel
17Description of the Current Process
Current Output Products
SPO Program Manager
- Top Level Risk List
- Classic 5x5 Matrix
- Briefed to SMC Management in Program Reviews
- Used as input tool for making resource management
decisions (manpower/budget)
18Summary
Useful Features of this Process
- System Owners are directly involved in risk
assessments and developing handling plans for
management review - Monthly process allows for frequent heading check
on risk - Especially when risk is changing in the unique
program environment - Not an extensive manpower investment
- Can be implemented in any program phase and in
any organization - Allows a heading check in program decision making
over time - Shows the PM where they should concentrate
increased effort - Provides detail in the forecasting of resources
and expected results
19Summary
Future Improvement Areas
- Training Program more emphasis on how to
identify risk, use assessment criteria and create
handling plans - Define Less Subjective Assessment Criteria
adding quantitative analysis where it makes sense
(i.e. where data is available) - More dialogue between SPO Divisions improve
handling of risk areas which are coupled with
budget and contract actions - Documentation baseline the current process and
history in Risk Management Plan, annual revision
cycle for continuous improvement