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Risk Management in DoD Space Systems Acquisition Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle EELV

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Tim Vermilion. Space & Missile Systems Center. EELV Program Office (SMC/EV) Not Another Tutorial ... How EELV is implementing risk management in a unique environment ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Risk Management in DoD Space Systems Acquisition Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle EELV


1
Risk Management in DoD Space Systems Acquisition
Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)
  • Tim Vermilion
  • Space Missile Systems Center
  • EELV Program Office (SMC/EV)

2
Not Another Tutorial
  • Many methods of Risk Management (RM) exist
  • RM must be tailored to fit the program phase
  • Not addressing RM tools but a technique
  • The purpose of this presentation
  • How EELV is implementing risk management in a
    unique environment
  • A discussion in effective tailoring of an RM
    process

3
Agenda
  • Overview Program Environment
  • Historical Development of the Process
  • Description of the Current Process
  • Summary

4
Overview Program Environment
Delta IV (Boeing)
(x,y) x denotes 4m or 5m payload fairing,
y of solid rocket motors
5
Overview Program Environment
Atlas V (Lockheed-Martin)
400/500 Series Solid Configurations
500 Only
400 4m payload fairing 500 5m payload fairing
400 Series
500 Series
Heavy
6
Overview Program Environment
NSS vs. DoD Acquisition Phases
From National Security Space (NSS) Acquisition
Policy 03-01 signed in October 2003
7
Overview Program Environment
EELV Program Schedule
FY95 96 97 98 99 00 01
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
  • 1st Flights (Commercial / Military)
  • Boeing (FY03/03)
  • LMA (FY02/06)

MS I
OIPT
MS II
LCCV
Pre-EMD
EMD
17 months 2 Contracts
15 Months 4 Contracts
Development 2 Other Transactions (OTA)
Buy II
RFP
RFP
CFI
Buy III
TAILORED PDRs
DDR
TAILORED SRRs
TCDR
DCR
Pre-EMD - Pre-Engineering Manufacturing
Development LCCV - Low Cost Concept
Validation TCDR - Tailored Critical Design
Review SRR - Systems Requirements Review RFP
- Request for Proposal PDR - Preliminary
Design Review CFI - Call For Improvements
DDR - Down-select Design Review MS
Milestone DCR Design Certification Review
8
Overview Program Environment
  • Both Contractors now have a post-development risk
    management process
  • SPO process adds by tracking and managing
    programmatic risks launch system risks

Development
Operations
Program Timeline
9
Overview Program Environment
Current Launch Schedule (Not including NASA or
Commercial)
EELV FY03 FY04 FY05
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
FY10 FY11
Boeing Delta IV-CCAFS SLC-37B
Lockheed-Martin Atlas V-CCAFS SLC-41
Launch rate of commercial payloads is lower than
expected which has impacted the acquisition
strategy
Boeing Delta IV-VAFB SLC-6
Lockheed-Martin Atlas V-VAFB SLC-3E
1
1
4
6
6
7
Un-Awarded
- Launched
- Heavy
- Medium
10
Historical Development of the Process
Unique Risk Management Environment
  • Government (i.e., SPO) RM activities are
    increasing
  • Baseline was that both contractors were 100
    responsible to perform trades with cost, schedule
    performance
  • Recent launch failures (1998/99) have caused an
    increase in government involvement and additional
    SPO insight into contractor activities
  • Failure of commercial market to materialize
    reduced contractor trade space
  • EELV program management is learning how to use RM
    as a formal tool to aid in decision making
  • Restricted Contract Structure (Not Flexible)
  • Government directed risk mitigation efforts
    require either separate contract action or must
    be performed with government manpower
  • Data availability is limited no Earned Value
    Management or Data Deliveries (e.g., CDRLs)

11
Historical Development of the Process
Monthly Cycle
SPO Risk Management Council (Division Chiefs)
12
Description of the Current Process
13
Description of the Current Process
Subjective Assessment Criteria
  • Designed for risk prioritization only
  • Ordinal Scale that allows a subjective input

14
Description of the Current Process
Current Input Products
SPO Division
  • -Risk Owner develops input and tracks risk
  • -Input includes
  • Risk Statement
  • Assessment
  • Handling Plan
  • Burn Down (Next Page)
  • -Input is validated by Division Chief Chief
    Engineer
  • -Resources decisions made within Division Chief
    or PM trade space

15
Description of the Current Process
Current Input Products
SPO Division
Bar from overall list provides frame of reference
in program list
  • Burn Down Plan
  • Visual representation of events timeline
  • Options encourage future planning to mitigate
    risk
  • Forecast of necessary resources

16
Description of the Current Process
Current Output Products
SPO Chief Engineer
  • Example Risk Spreadsheet for Program Level (HIGH
    MEDIUM Risk Only)
  • Consolidates Inputs
  • Hyperlinks for Easy Briefing
  • HANDLING METHOD Status/Help field allows for
    summary look of management concerns

Created in MS Excel
17
Description of the Current Process
Current Output Products
SPO Program Manager
  • Top Level Risk List
  • Classic 5x5 Matrix
  • Briefed to SMC Management in Program Reviews
  • Used as input tool for making resource management
    decisions (manpower/budget)

18
Summary
Useful Features of this Process
  • System Owners are directly involved in risk
    assessments and developing handling plans for
    management review
  • Monthly process allows for frequent heading check
    on risk
  • Especially when risk is changing in the unique
    program environment
  • Not an extensive manpower investment
  • Can be implemented in any program phase and in
    any organization
  • Allows a heading check in program decision making
    over time
  • Shows the PM where they should concentrate
    increased effort
  • Provides detail in the forecasting of resources
    and expected results

19
Summary
Future Improvement Areas
  • Training Program more emphasis on how to
    identify risk, use assessment criteria and create
    handling plans
  • Define Less Subjective Assessment Criteria
    adding quantitative analysis where it makes sense
    (i.e. where data is available)
  • More dialogue between SPO Divisions improve
    handling of risk areas which are coupled with
    budget and contract actions
  • Documentation baseline the current process and
    history in Risk Management Plan, annual revision
    cycle for continuous improvement
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