Chinese Steel: Dangerous, Defiant and Indefatigable - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Chinese Steel: Dangerous, Defiant and Indefatigable PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 123c0e-MjM3M



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Chinese Steel: Dangerous, Defiant and Indefatigable

Description:

HRB Pricing Troika: USA, China and World. WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS ... Economic activity continues to expand notwithstanding oil prices in the mid-high ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:81
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 28
Provided by: isricon
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Chinese Steel: Dangerous, Defiant and Indefatigable


1
The Age
OF
P
S
R
T
O
I
F
Presentation by Karlis M. Kirsis Managing
Partner World Steel Dynamics Inc. www.worldsteeld
ynamics.com
2
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Volcanic Activity The Steel Market
3
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Death Spirals and Volcanoes (HRB -- per tonne,
Tier I mills, FOB the port)
450 Mar. 2006
420 Jan 2006
4
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
HRB Pricing Troika USA, China and World
5
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Dollars-per-Euro drives World HRB Price
6
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Age of SteelmakersMetallics
7
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Spread USA Autobundle less USA 1 Heavy Melting
8
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Return of the Steel Phoenix Profitability
9
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
China Dominates Steel Growth
10
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment Bubble
11
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Global Steelmaking Metallics Requirements
12
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
China Region Metallics Requirement
13
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Global Metallics Requirements excluding China
14
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
  • 2006
  • Outlook

15
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
  • Big Picture
  • Global economic news appears favorable.
    Economic activity continues to expand
    notwithstanding oil prices in the mid-high 60s.
  • In China, the economy has shifted to an even
    faster growth rate in the past six months.
  • In the USA, the economy is strong, with signs
    that non-residential construction may rise 10 or
    more this year.
  • In Germany, business confidence is up sharply.
  • In Japan, confidence is also up and capital
    spending by manufacturers is rising.

16
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
The Odds for Non-Chinese Mills
  • Steel shortage 50 odds.
  • High operating rate 45 odds.
  • Sizable oversupply outside of China 5 odds.

17
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
The Odds for Chinese Mills
  • Steel shortage 5 odds.
  • High operating rate 35 odds.
  • Reduced operating rate in China 60 odds.

18
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
USA Sole Strong Region
  • The USA mills are benefiting from a favorable
    supply/demand balance reflecting lagging steel
    production, relatively low imports of both steel
    products and semi-finished steel and good
    underlying demand.
  • Based on the recent annualized steel production
    rate and the imports of semis, the USA mills at
    present have a shipment capability of only about
    104 million net tons versus the shipment forecast
    requirement of 109 million tons.
  • This shortfall of steel deliveries is why
    hot-rolled band in the USA spot market is priced
    at the high level of about 615 per metric tonne,
    FOB the steel mill.

19
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
USA Crude Steel Production Difficulties?
20
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
USA Steel Consumption/Shipment Outlook (million
short tons)
21
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
HRB and Other Items Price Forecast
22
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Age of Profits
  • The profit performance of the steels
    sheet-producing group, will probably be better
    than that for the long-products group.
  • One reason is that the steel sheet segment of the
    industry has grown far more concentrated in
    recent years.

23
Improved Steel Cycle
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS

Portion of the Steel Cycle For World Spot Export
Pricing   Past 25 years Next 10
years Shake-out 21 5 Bad
times 25 25 Average times 25 30 Good
times 12 30 Boom times 17 10
24
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
Steelbenchmarker.com
  • A global steel benchmark pricing system designed
    to provide a reliable set of benchmark prices
    that will become trusted by steel buyers and
    sellers the world over by the end of 2006.
  • Over the next few years, it will become the
    foundation for an extraordinary surge in the
    trading of financial instruments for the hedging
    of steel price risks.
  • Benchmark prices will be published for hot-rolled
    band, cold-rolled coil, standard plate and rebar
    in each of these regions the USA, Western
    Europe, China and the world export market. Also
    a USA shredded steel scrap price benchmark.
  • Register to provide pricing opinion data, and
    receive benchmark prices the moment they are
    published.
  • Go to www.steelbenchmarker.com.

25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
WORLD STEEL DYNAMICS
  • Register Now
  • Steels New Game Bigger Bets Bigger Jackpots
  • SSS XXI United States
  • Co-sponsored by World Steel Dynamics and AMM
  • June 19-21, 2006
  • Sheraton Towers New York
  • New York City, USA
  • www.worldsteeldynamics.com
About PowerShow.com