Lessons learned from the Reefs at Risk series global, regional and Mesoamerican analyses

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Lessons learned from the Reefs at Risk series-
global, regional and Mesoamerican analyses
Lauretta Burke World Resources Institute
ITMEMS, October 2006
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Presentation Overview

• Background on Reefs at (R_at_R) project series
• Nature of the Threat Model and Indicators
• Information Needs for Reefs at Risk
• Information Sources (and adaptive management)
• Information needs for Watershed
  Analysis

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The Information Need

• Few Coral Reefs Have Been Monitored
• Inadequate Information on Changes in Coral Reefs
• Much Data Is Unavailable
• Integrated Monitoring Programs Are Needed

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Goals of Reefs at Risk

• Raise awareness about threats to coral reefs
• Establish linkages between human activity and
  coral condition
• Develop a standardized indicator of threat to
  coral reefs from human activities
• Promote sharing and improvement of information
  through data integration and distribution

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Global Analysis released in 1998 by World
Resources Institute, in collaboration with
ICLARM, WCMC and UNEP
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The Reefs at Risk Index the central element
Low
High
Medium
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• Global Reefs at Risk successful at raising
  awareness.
• Relatively coarse-scale (4km.)

• Regional Reefs at Risk series
• Higher resolution analysis valuable for
  management
• More integration and improvement of data

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Multiple scales of analysis

• Global (4km)
• Regional (1km)
• Local (100 - 250m)

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Purposes and data requirements vary across scales

• Global
• Regional
• Local

• Raise awareness
• Priority setting
• Influence Policy

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Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean

• Collaboration of over twenty international and
  regional partners
• Uses Geographical Information System (GIS) to
  evaluate threat to coral reefs

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Threats Evaluated in Caribbean

• Coastal Development
• Watershed-based sources of sediment and pollution
• Marine-based threat
• Overfishing

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Also Examined

• Coral Bleaching
• Coral Disease

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Sample Indicators / Results from Reefs at Risk
Caribbean
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Finding COASTAL DEVOPMENTthreatens an
estimated one-third of Caribbean coral reefs.
Estimated threat
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Finding OVERFISHING threatens over 60 percent of
Caribbean coral reefs.
Estimated threat
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Regional Summary by threat
Low
Medium
High
Very High
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Regional Summary by subregion
Low
Medium
High
Very High
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Country Summary Puerto Rico
Reefs at Risk in Puerto Rico
Low
Medium
High
Very High
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Only 20 of Reefs in MPAs.1 in effectively
managed MPAs
80 of reefs outside of MPAs
1 of reefs in MPAs rated as good
3 of reefs in MPAs rated as partially effective
9 of reefs in MPAs rated as ineffective
7 of reefs in MPAs under an unknown level of
management
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Threat Analysis Method

• Inferential modeling

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Threat Coastal Development

• Dredging, land filling and reclamation
• Mining of sand and coral
• Runoff from construction
• Sewage discharge
• Impacts from tourism

Replace photo
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Coastal Development Analysis Method

• Proxy Indicators
• Distance from development features
• Coastal Population Pressure

Mapped Stressors
Airports Dive Centers
Cities Towns
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Coastal Development - Component Indicators
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Coastal Development Analysis Method

• Proxy Indicators
• Distance from development features
• Coastal Population Pressure

Threats Estimated
Medium High
Estimated Threat From Coastal Development
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Coastal Development Analysis Method

• Proxy Indicators
• Distance from development features
• Coastal Population Pressure

Reefs Classified
Reefs Threatened by Coastal Development
Low Medium High
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Calibration / Validation done using data from
coral reef monitoring and assessment sites
Sites
CARICOMP Reef Check AGRRA
Coral Reef locations
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Threat Sediment and Pollution from Inland Sources

• Land clearing
• Poor agricultural practices
• Fertilizer and pesticide runoff

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Watersheds are critical units for analysis and
management
Pour points
Puerto Rico
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Erosion analysis integrates four factors
Land Cover Type
Slope
Soil Porosity
Precipitation
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Finding SEDIMENT AND POLLUTION FROM INLAND
SOURCES threaten more than one-third of Caribbean
coral reefs.
Estimated threat
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Main Information Needs for R_at_R

• Coral Reef locations
• Physical and social input data sets for
  modeling
• Data for calibration and validation of threat
  model results
• Information on threats we were unable to model
• Economic data for Valuation

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Data Approach

• Collaborative
• Workshop Process
• Best Available Data
• Adaptive
• Improve data
• Work around limitations \ proxy indicators
• Honor overall data quality and scale
• Full acknowledgement of partners contribution and
  role

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Data Need- Coral Reefs

• Global R_at_R 4km res. GRID from WCMC
• SE Asia 1 km res., primarily WCMC, revised by
  local partners
• Caribbean 500m res, integrated at WRI from
• Serge Andrefouet \ Millennium Reef Mapping
• UNEP WCMC
• Local partners data

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Input data sets for modeling

• Population 1km LandScan or CEISIN
• Elevation HYDRO1K of SRTM
• Bathymetry sometimes WRI
• Watersheds WRI or Hydrosheds
• Land Cover Many global - GLCCDB
• Soils FAO or SOTER
• Precipitation - WorldCLIM
• Shipping Lanes - Unattainable
• Fishing Data (location, practices) Not available.

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Proxy OVERFISHING estimated based on coastal
population density and shelf area
Estimated threat
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Data for Calibration and Validation

• Some data are used to set threat model thresholds
  (calibrate)
• Some data used to evaluate accuracy of model
  results (validate)

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Data Sources for Calibration and Validation

• Global
• ReefBase Reefcheck
• Regional (Caribbean)
• Reefcheck, GCRMN
• AGRRA, Local expert reviews
• Erosion SOTER
• River discharge - various

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Data Sources for Other Threats

• Coral Bleaching ReefBase
• Coral Disease NOAA and UNEP-WCMC

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Local Analyses

• Local Threat Analysis
• Watershed-based analysis of LBS threat
• Economic Valuation of coral reef goods and
  services

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MAR watershed analysis Project Goals

• (i) model present and future impact of land cover
  change and agricultural activities on coral reefs
  
• (ii) implement better management practices to
  reduce impacts

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Threats to Coral Reefs from Land-based Sources

• Sediment
• Nutrients
• Toxic Substances

Photo WWF, Sylvia Marin
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Information is needed at many juncturesa) What
is coming off the land (plot)?
Photo WWF, Sylvia Marin
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Information is needed at many juncturesb) What
is making it into rivers and streams?
Photo WWF, Sylvia Marin
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Information is needed at many juncturesc) What
makes it to the river mouth?
Photo WRI, Lauretta Burke
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Information is needed at many juncturesd) What
makes it to the coral reefs?
Photo WWF, Melanie McField
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1.Watershed Delineation for MAR

• Basins delineated from 90m resolution NASA SRTM
  data (corrected with mapped river locations)
• 300 basins (of 5 sq km min. size) identified
  along MAR
• Mapping in Yucatan complicated by underground
  rivers

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2. Hydrologic Modeling along the MAR

• N-SPECT model
• Developed by NOAA
• Runs in ArcMAP
• Outputs
• Runoff
• Erosion
• Nutrient runoff
• Sediment and nutrient (N and P) concentration,
  accumulation, and delivery

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N-SPECT Erosion analysis

• Slope and slope length are derived from elevation
• Land cover types linked to erosion coefficients
• Precipitation linked to R-factor (rainfall
  erosivity factor)
• Soil types link with K-factor (erodibility
  factor)

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Sediment Delivery by Basin
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Nutrient Delivery by Basin
Nitrogen Delivery
Phosphorous Delivery
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Current vs. Natural Sediment
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(No Transcript)
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• Average N coming from the land

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3. Estimating sediment and nutrient transport

• High resolution 4D (time and space) circulation \
  transport modeling
• University of Miami (RSMAS) with TNC and WRI
• Calibration using SeaWifs

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Circulation Modeling U of Miami

• Regional Ocean Circulation Modeling (ROMS)
• 4 D (space and time) Ocean Circulation
• Passive Sediment Transport
• Includes reefs and lagoons
• Nested Scale (5km / 2km)
• Tides included
• Mean Monthly Outputs

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4.Model Calibration

• Field Plots from WWF work (in the future)
• River discharge \ river mouths
• WRISC, USGS and other survey data
• National Data
• Sediment reaching reefs
• Sea Wifs
• WWF sediment samples
• AGRRA surveys on reef condition

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Reefs at Risk

• Thank you!
• http//reefsatrisk.wri.org
• World Resources Institute