Transforming stress changes into seismicity rate and probability changes

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Transforming stress changes into seismicity
rate and probability changes In three easy steps
Japan, California and Turkey
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Two large shocks struck 4 km and 40 days apart
Kagoshima
Toda Stein (2003)
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Adding stress changes is inadequate How can
one explain the seismicity time decay?
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Time (year)
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Time (year)
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Time (year)
Stress change amplifies background seismicity rate
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Time (year)
Stressing ratenot magnitudegoverns aftershock
duration
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Coseismic stress changes exert a greater
seismicity response
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Coseismic stress changes exert a greater
seismicity response
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Seismic swarms result from fault creep or
intrusions (Toda et al, 2002 Vidale Shearer,
2006 Lohman McGuire, 2007)
Coseismic stress changes exert a greater
seismicity response
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Armed with rate/state friction
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Weakness We assumed a uniform background rate
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Overall 10-fold net probability gain
despite stress shadows
Toda Stein (JGR, 2003)
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