A Proposed Workplan for Energy Efficiency Plan Development

1
A Proposed Workplan for Energy Efficiency Plan
Development

• Jay Zarnikau, Frontier Associates
• Mike Stockard, TXU Electric
• Bill Brooks, Frontier Associates
• Karen Radosevich, Entergy
• April 2000

2
Outline

• What wed like to achieve through the Energy
  Efficiency Implementation Docket by May 15th
  (Jay)
• Standard Offer Programs Status and Design
  Issues (Mike)
• Deemed Savings and MV Protocols (Bill)
• Outreach (Karen)
• Market Transformation issues (Jay)
• Suggested Next Steps (Jay)

3
The Energy Efficiency Implementation Docket Our
Near-Term Objectives

• Bring the Program Concepts developed by
  Schiller Associates for statewide Standard Offer
  programs to a level of detail and completeness
  sufficient for Commission approval.
• Provide for broad participation in the program
  development process.
• Establish procedures through which programs can
  be improved over time.
• Establish procedures for the development and
  approval of statewide market transformation
  programs.
• Design an outreach program.

4
The Energy Efficiency Implementation Docket Our
Long-Term Objectives

• Determine role and select statewide MV
  consultant.
• Evaluation of pilot programs.
• Establish approved statewide market
  transformation programs.
• Adopt and refine deemed savings estimates.
• Refine other program elements.
• Build a web site.
• Implement an outreach program.
• Run the worlds best energy efficiency programs!

5
Achieving Our Short-Term Objectives

• We only have around six weeks!
• The utilities and Frontier would like to use the
  Implementation Docket as a forum for soliciting
  feedback on various program elements as they
  are developed.
• We suggest conducting some workshops over the
  next six weeks on various topics.

6
Possible Workshop Topics

• Deemed savings estimates and Measurement and
  Verification protocols.
• Procedures for selecting and adopting Market
  Transformation programs. (can we volunteer
  Margaret to help?)
• Program outreach. (Randy Chapman has volunteered
  to lead a discussion).
• Standard Offer program preview putting it all
  together.

7
The June 1 Deliverables

• Most utilities must file an Energy Efficiency
  Plan through supplemental testimony in their rate
  cases by June 1.
• The Energy Efficiency Plan will include
• Program and Plan objectives.
• Fairly detailed program descriptions.
• An approach for developing deemed savings
  estimates.
• As many deemed savings estimates as can be
  completed by then. (Perhaps, estimates for about
  10 of all measures, representing about 50 of
  all projects.)

8
The June 1 Deliverables (cont.)

• The Energy Efficiency Plan will also include
• An MV protocol to use when a deemed savings
  estimate is unavailable or inapplicable.
• Discussion of EESP eligibility, measure
  eligibility, etc.
• An outreach plan.
• Procedures for selecting and adopting MT
  programs.
• Revised budgets.
• Customer class information and how the plan will
  meet the equity requirements.

9
Status of Standard Offer Programs

• Program concepts have been developed by Schiller
  Associates.
• These are available, and we welcome your
  comments.
• Over the next six weeks, the program concepts
  will be greatly expanded, to include deemed
  savings estimates, MV protocols, application
  forms, draft contracts, procedures for requesting
  and paying incentives, etc.

10
Standard Offer Programs Two Approaches being
Considered

• Have two main umbrella programs Residential
  and CI, with various subprograms or
  concentrations. There would be different
  incentive levels for different customer sectors
  within these two programs.
• Greater simplicity, and possibly lower
  administrative costs
• Addresses concerns of smaller utilities over the
  20 limit for EESPs.
• Have six or so targeted Standard Offer programs.
• Perhaps goals could be achieved better with
  targeted programs?

11
Deemed Savings

• PUC wants to see deemed savings developed for
  most measures, to simplify the programs and
  reduce MV costs.
• For weather-sensitive measures, we need to
  realize that potential savings will vary by
  climate zone.
• The same measure can result in very different
  impacts, depending upon operating hours, climate,
  building shell, application, etc.

12
Deemed Savings Issues

• Establishing baselines
• Free-ridership adjustments (net-to-gross ratios)
• Measure life
• Persistence of savings
• How big is the variance (distribution) of
  potential savings?
• How to prevent gaming?

13
Strategy for Developing Deemed Savings

• Complete as many deemed savings estimates as we
  can by May 15th, using existing studies.
  Frontier will do much of the analysis.
• Establish procedures for adding and refining
  deemed savings estimates into the programs.
• Adopt an existing MV protocol, for use
• For measures for which no deemed savings
  estimates have yet been developed.
• For custom measures.
• As an option for situations where the EESP
  believes the deemed savings numbers dont
  adequately reflect the savings that will actually
  be achieved through a project.

14
Suggested Workplan for Deemed Savings Development

• Identify unbiased sources of information.
• Identify and collect existing unbiased baseline
  studies.
• Identify and collect any useful unbiased
  evaluation studies.
• Review estimates adopted in the CPL and TXU
  standard offer programs.
• Review estimates used in utility programs
  elsewhere.

15
Suggested Workplan for Deemed Savings Development
(cont.)

• Obtain energy usage information from product
  manufacturers and vendors.
• Review any useful load research information.
• Solve building energy use simulation models to
  obtain supplemental estimates.
• Review public domain engineering studies, ACEEE
  publications, LBL, ORNL and DOE reports and other
  sources to obtain additional estimates.

16
Suggested Workplan for Deemed Savings Development
(cont.)

• Synthesize information from various sources to
  develop deemed savings estimates for various
  standard measures in various climate zones in
  Texas.
• Identify the mean and distribution (variance) of
  likely savings (in peak demand reduction and
  energy conservation) associated with various
  measures.
• Provide preliminary results to utilities for
  review and refinement.
• Develop deemed savings recommendations for
  presentation to the project.

17
The Outreach Challenge
Least Difficult Service Delivery Path
Distribution Companies
EESPs
Most Difficult Service Delivery Path
18
Outreach

• Outreach objectives
• Ensure that potential EESPs and potential
  participants are aware of the opportunities
  presented by these programs.
• Disseminate accurate program information.
• Outreach activities need to stay within budget.
• Particularly in the hard-to-reach sector,
  effective outreach efforts will be critical to
  program success.
• An outreach plan should be developed in the
  coming weeks. Randy Chapman has offered
  assistance.

19
Outreach Hard-to-Reach Issues

• In the Hard-to-Reach Sector, we need to
• Determine how to verify that a customer
  qualifies under the income-based definition of
  hard-to-reach.
• Make sure qualifying customers are aware of the
  programs and the availability of incentives.
• Ensure that EESPs are interested in working in
  this sector.

20
Market Transformation Issues

• Over the next six weeks, there is little time to
  design market transformation programs or conduct
  solicitations for program proposals.
• Further, the utilities plan to conduct some pilot
  programs during the transition period. In some
  cases, it would be wise to review the results of
  these pilot efforts before jumping into statewide
  programs.
• We suggest spending some time on the
  establishment of procedures through which a
  utilitys Energy Efficiency Plan could be easily
  amended at a later date to include market
  transformation programs which meet various
  standards.

21
Homework

• Suggest sources of unbiased baseline, evaluation,
  and engineering studies that you would like us to
  consider to Amy McGowan at Frontier Associates.
• Review our 1st Draft List of Eligible Measures.
  Provide suggested changes or additions to Amy.
• Review Schiller Associates Program Concepts.
  E-mail comments to Amy.
• Amys email Amcgowan_at_frontierassoc.com
• Mailing Address Frontier Associates
  4425 MoPac South, Ste. 101 Austin, TX.
  78735
• Current documents will be kept on Frontiers
  website www.frontierassoc.com