Development of a New Canadian Operational Air Quality Forecast Model GEMMACH

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Development of a New Canadian Operational Air
Quality Forecast ModelGEM-MACH
www.ec.gc.ca
Sylvain Ménard Air Quality Models Applications
Section and the GEM-MACH team
2007 National Air Quality Conferences Air
Quality Forecasting, Mapping, and Monitoring and
Communicating Air Quality and Communities in
Motion February 11-14, 2007. Royal Plaza Hotel,
Orlando, Florida
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PLAN
Air Quality Modelling Applications GroupCanadian
Meteorological CentreMeteorological Service of
Canada

• PLAN
• GEM-MACH project objective
• History of the National Air Quality Forecast
  Program in Canada
• GEM-MACH grid/configuration
• GEM-MACH emissions package
• GEM-MACH chemistry package
• Model evaluation

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GEM-MACH
GEM-MACH stands for

• Global Environnemental Multi-échelle modèle
• Modélisation de la qualité de l'Air et de la
  CHimie
• And
• Global Environmental Multiscale model
• Modelling Air quality and CHemistry

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GEM-MACH project

• Project objective
• Late 2007, to replace the current Canadian
  operational air quality forecast model CHRONOS
  (Ozone, PM2.5, PM10.0, AQHI) by GEM-MACH. The
  chemistry library in GEM-MACH will be superior to
  the one in CHRONOS with a better representation
  of fine particles.
• Project approach
• Chemistry and emissions packages will be embedded
  in the GEM meteorological model.
• -on-line chemistry
• Chemistry package will benefit from GEM
  infrastructure
• - Message Passing Interface (MPI) capable
• - GEM-MACH will be able to use the full power of
  the supercomputer architecture.
• Note
• - CHRONOS is an off-line chemistry model.
• - The code is not using MPI technology (cant
  run with more than 16 CPU)

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National AQ forecast program in Canada

• History of the National Air Quality Forecast
  Program in Canada
• Summer 1999 Pilot Air Quality Forecasting
  Program for eastern Canada
• Limited to ground-level ozone (21 km spatial
  resolution)
• Summer 2001 Operational Air Quality Prediction
  Program extended to all subarctic Canada (public)
• Summer 2002
• Introduction of bulk aerosol scheme in
  experimental CHRONOS version

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National AQ forecast program in Canada

• History of the National Air Quality Forecast
  Program in Canada
• Summer 2003
• Implementation of bulk aerosol scheme in
  operational CHRONOS version (public)
• Experimental Objective Analysis of ground-level
  ozone
• Summer 2004 - 2005
• Continuation of ozone and PM operational AQ
  forecasts
• February 2006
• Beginning of the development of GEM-MACH project
• Late 2007
• GEM-MACH to replace CHRONOS for operational AQ
  forecast.

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GEM-MACH grid

• GEM-MACH vs CHRONOS modeling domain

GEM-MACH
GEM-MACH 465x400 dx15km CHRONOS 350x250 dx21
km
CHRONOS
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GEM-MACH vs CHRONOS config
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GEM-MACH vs CHRONOS config
New Supercomputing Facilities (more than 1000 CPU
units)
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GEM-MACH emissions
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GEM-MACH emissions
Biogenic Isoprenes (g/s) 15 km resolution on
GEM-MACH grid (but using USGS categories)
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GEM-MACH chemistry
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GEM-MACH chemistry
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GEM-MACH chemistry
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Model evaluation and validation

• Model evaluation/validation
• Goal GEM-MACH to replace the current
  operational AQ forecast model CHRONOS after a
  formal evaluation/validation procedure through
  CPOP (Comité des Passes Opérationnelles et
  Parallèles, CMC operational and parallel runs
  committee)
• Risk GEM-MACH must give better AQ forecasts
  than CHRONOS and/or must show gains or advantages
  over the older system
• a) Preliminary model evaluation
• - Build an independent quality assurance team
  separate from the development team to evaluate
  the model and to test different model
  configurations.
• - Evaluate GEM-MACH model against intensive AQ
  measurement campaigns
• (e.g., ICARTT 2004, Pacific 2001, ...).
• Run GEM-MACH in real-time on a daily basis to
  produce a 48-hour forecast of O3/PM2.5.
• Compare model output against hourly observations
  for ozone and PM2.5 coming from
• AIRNOW (US EPA database of Canadian and
  U.S. measurements ).
• - Compare GEM-MACH vs CHRONOS performance.

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Model evaluation and validation

• Model evaluation/validation
• b) Formal model evaluation/validation
• - Preparation of a GEM-MACH operational model
  configuration setup.
• - CPOP proposal preparation and presentation to
  CMC Operations
• (based on preliminary model evaluation
  results)
• - Preparation of a GEM-MACH parallel run by CMC
  Operations
• - Both GEM-MACH and CHRONOS will be run by AP
  (Analysis and Prognosis Division)
• on a daily basis over a long period of time
  (months).
• - Obtain subjective and objective verifications
  to justify the replacement of CHRONOS by
• GEM-MACH. GEM-MACH must show gains or
  advantages over the older system.

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